Australia’s dangerous military weakness exposed

Australia is “underperforming” and leaving itself wide open as longstanding fears look set to come true.

It’s a recurring theme: Australia helped revive the effectiveness of a Cold War-era submarine torpedo. But now it has to expand its war-ready stockpile by buying them from the US state of Virginia.

The story of the Mark 48 Mod 7 torpedo is not uncommon.

Most precision weapons used by the Australian Defence Force (ADF) are bought from the United States. High prices, limited supplies, and the risk of technological obsolescence mean purchases have generally been limited.

But recent war games and simulations have validated longstanding fears that precision ammunition supplies will quickly evaporate in the opening days of any high-level conflict.

And the experience of Ukraine has left the US and UK struggling to replenish their own stockpiles, let alone those of their allies.

The ADF’s deputy secretary of the Capability, Acquisition and Sustainment Group (CASG) admitted at an Avalon Air Show symposium this week that this “is a vexing problem”.

The Australian Defence Force relies on buying weapons from the US which leads to supply issues. Picture: David Caird

Building up Australia’s military production capacity has been a loudly proclaimed objective of successive governments in recent decades. “We’re not doing that well at this point in time,” Chris Deeble admitted.

“I’ll be very honest with you here, Australia has underperformed on defence exports,” defence industry minister Pat Conroy conceded. But he says he hopes technology transfers under the AUKUS agreement will mean “not only can we produce missiles in Australia for Defence needs, but be a second supply line for the United States”.

Canberra appears to be banking on this.

It has finalised a $558 million deal to purchase 20 armoured trucks. Each carries a six-barreled missile launcher. And the delivery includes 130 HIMARS missiles (including dummy training rounds).

That equates to just one load for each truck.

Sinking feeling

The Defence Science Technology Group (DSTG) and Royal Australian Navy (RAN) contributed to the rejuvenation of the primary US submarine-launched torpedo, the Mark 48 Mod7.

It first entered service in 1972. Australia contributed guidance algorithms and performance enhancements to the digital upgrade that began replacing its analogue technology in 2011.

It’s the primary weapon carried by Australia’s six Collins Class submarines.

The US Navy has a stockpile of 1048 Mark 48 Mod7 torpedoes. Its manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, reported in 2017 that it was building about 50 new ones yearly.

Collins Class Submarines, HMAS Collins, HMAS Farncomb, HMAS Dechaineux and HMAS Sheean in formation while transiting through Cockburn Sound, Western Australia.

On February 24, the US Department of Defense awarded the Virginia, US, based manufacturing facility a $152 million order to expand the production run for “the US Navy, the Royal Australian Navy and the government of Taiwan, under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme”.

The cost of a single Mark 48 torpedo is about $8.6 million.

Meanwhile, Canberra has also announced the $506 million purchase of up to 63 US-built long-range AGM-88G Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missiles (AARGM-ER). These will be used by the RAAF’s12 EA-16G “Growler” aircraft. But only a handful of Australia’s 54 F-35A stealth fighters - those from the latest production run - can operate the weapon.

Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin says it is examining the potential of manufacturing advanced missiles in Australia. That’s despite the US being traditionally reluctant to give foreign manufacturers its most sensitive military technology.

Tim Cahill of Lockheed’s missiles division told an Avalon Air Show audience that Washington “has become far more open to opening up those supply chains and to allowing a build, particularly of some of the more sophisticated systems, overseas completely”.

But Lockheed vice-president Ken Kota went on to downplay the scale of such projects.

“We’re not going to jump right into JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) manufacturing,” he said. Instead, Australian projects may focus on older, less capable systems such as AGM-114 Hellfire missiles.

Sovereign, or sales pitch?

Australia’s defence researchers and industries have a long history of doing more with less.

The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) was developed in the late 1990s. It’s a simple guidance kit that converts large free-fall “dumb bombs” into guided glide bombs.

A similar “upgrade” theme was prevalent at this year’s Avalon Air Show.

British Aerospace Australia (BAeA) announced a new “sovereign guided missile”.

Dubbed the “Razer”, it’s another adaptation kit. This “cheap” strap-on wing and navigation unit turns existing small 50 kilo bomblets into short-range precision-guided glide bombs.

“Razer addresses a clear gap in the market for sovereign guided weapons. It will enable our Australian Defence Force ease of access to world-class munitions right here in Australia,” said BAE Systems Australia CEO Ben Hudson. “It could deliver a powerful and affordable battlefield strike capability for users globally.”

British Aerospace Australia announced a new sovereign guided missile dubbed the Raxer. Picture: BAeE

But he did not define the extent of Australia’s involvement in its entire supply chain (including critical components such as silicon chips).

Likewise, chances are BAeA’s headline product release - the Australian-designed and manufactured Strix drone - also depends on at least some imported components and materials.

The semi-autonomous vehicle is touted to carry a 160 kilo weapons load over 800km. It is also intended to operate in concert with crewed military helicopters.

Meanwhile, the future of Boeing’s MQ-28 “Ghost Bat” loyal wingman drone - developed in concert with DSTG and the RAAF - remains up in the air.

At least one example has been sent to the US for testing by the US Air Force as an in-flight companion to crewed F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters.

Boeing did not reveal what the future holds for the Ghost Bat, which made its first public appearance at Avalon this week. It had been spruiked as an Australian-manufactured supplement to the RAAF’s fighter fleet.

But Boeing Australia can claim a (partial) victory with a decision by the United States to spend $2.5 billion on the construction of 26 E-7A “Wedgetail” air warning and control (AWACS) aircraft.

It was the result of a 1990s Australian design request. Six were delivered by 2012, with some components supplied by Boeing subsidiary Hawker De Haviland in Melbourne.

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel

Originally published as Australia’s dangerous military weakness exposed