Analyst explains exactly what happens in the seconds after a nuclear bomb is launched

Horror warnings about the impact of a nuclear launch haven’t stopped a select few leaders from threatening to unleash armageddon.

26/03/1954. Mushroom cloud rising from detonation of 11-megaton nuclear device bomb 'Romeo' over Bikini Atoll in Marshall Islands. 1950s historical Pic. Supplied Pic. Supplied

12,500.

That is the approximate number of nuclear bombs that exist on our planet today.

Nine countries, the US, India, China, Russia, France, the UK, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea, have become the major players in the most powerful arms race in history.

Officials say the build-up of nuclear weapons arsenals is purely an act of deterrence, but even the slightest of miscues, like the famous 1983 false alarm that almost rang in armageddon, could spark a butterfly effect feared ever since Hiroshima.

The horrific details over what would happen following a nuclear launch have been discussed ad nauseam by humanity’s best minds, who have warned for decades that the destruction of civilisation could be sparked by the press of a button.

But this hasn’t stopped leaders from flexing their might through words. Pundits in Russia have regularly threatened their nation’s nuclear arsenal as Vladimir Putin pushes on with his now two-year “special military campaign”.

In another pointed gesture, Putin this week ordered his military to hold nuclear weapons drills for units based near the Ukrainian border.

It comes after he warned Russians in February that there was a “real” risk of nuclear war.

To make matters even more tense, Russia has ditched its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and pulled out of a key arms reduction agreement with the United States as of 2023.

North Korea has similarly flexed its growing nuclear arsenal to the world, boldly defending its right to govern its citizens how the Kim dynasty sees fit, a topic that regularly flares tensions with its closest neighbours and the West.

Despite years of international scrutiny, Kim Jong-un has continued missile tests into 2024, some of which hurtling dangerously close to Japan’s sovereign territory.

Analyst Annie Jacobsen, author of the newly-released book Nuclear War: A Scenario, has broken down the current state of geopolitics and the very real risk nuclear conflict could “end the world as we know it in a matter of hours”.

While there are powerful entities like the UN’s Office for Disarmament Affairs collaborating information over the number of weapons held by the major nuclear players, Jacobsen warns the actual tally could be way off the official estimate.

“The CIA will tell you North Korea has 50 nuclear weapons,” she said in a recent appearance on Chris Williamson’s Modern Wisdom podcast.

“But some non-government organisations will tell you that number is as high as 130.”

The world nuke tally peaked in 1986 at a whopping 70,000. From there, nations moved to reduce the amount of planet-destroying armaments. But it only takes one to kick things off.

Officials say the build-up of nuclear weapons arsenals is purely an act of deterrence, but even the slightest of miscues — like the famous 1983 false alarm that almost rang in armageddon — could spark a butterfly effect feared ever since Hiroshima.

There is also an issue in where the nuclear material ends up, with plants becoming immediate targets for foreign enemies in the event of conflict.

“Where does all that nuclear material go?” Jacobsen continued. “There’s a plant in Texas call Pentax, that’s where they do that. Not a lot of people know about it. But it is almost certainly on everybody’s nuclear strike target list. Because can you imagine the mayhem that would ensue if you struck that?

“There’s just so many precariously dangerous situations. Anything that touches a nuclear weapon becomes radioactive, both literally and figuratively.”

Endgame

The moment the button is pushed, a lightning speed chain reaction involving “hundreds of thousands” of officials begins.

Jacobsen describes this as “the ticking clock scenario”.

“The way it begins, interestingly, is in space,” she explains.

“That is because the US has spent trillions of dollars in the past few decades to be aware of when anyone launches a missile.” ICBM nukes are specifically designed to cross oceans and strike foreign nations. While they have never been used, the time frame from initial launch to impact is chilling.

“It takes 30 minutes in three phases,” Jacobsen explains, using a hypothetical attack on the US to explain the process.

“The first phase, boost phase, takes five minutes. Midcourse phase, 20 minutes and finally terminal phase, 100 seconds.

“That’s from a launch pad in Russia, 26 minutes and 40 seconds. From Pyongyang, it’s 33 minutes.”

“These satellite systems in space can park above an enemy nation and watch for the hot rocket exhaust on a ballistic missile launch, which it can see in less than a fraction of a second.”

She explains there are systems working around the clock specialised at interpreting the data at lightning speed before ultimately making the most dystopian of calls to the most powerful man on the planet.

“It becomes simply a matter of minutes before the President is notified about this,” she continued. “Within 150 seconds, the systems know whether the missile is directed at us or not.

“Letting the President know that very soon he has to make a decision very soon about a counterattack.”

“We don’t wait to absorb a nuclear blow. We launch. The theory is that whoever is launching at the US will try and take out the nuclear silos so we can’t respond, ’so therefore we must respond’.”

The moment the button is pushed, a lightning speed chain reaction involving ‘hundreds of thousands’ of officials begins.

Putin: Russia’s nuclear forces ‘always’ on alert

This week, Russia President Vladimir Putin warned his nuclear forces were “always” on alert and added that Moscow would not tolerate any western threats.

In a defiant speech on Red Square before thousands of soldiers for the annual Victory Day parade, Putin heaped praise on his army fighting in Ukraine and accused “Western elites” of fomenting conflicts around the world.

“Russia will do everything to prevent a global clash, but at the same time we will not allow anyone to threaten us. Our strategic forces are always on alert,” Putin told the crowd.

“Russia is now going through a difficult, crucial period. The fate of the Motherland, its future depends on each of us,” he said.

The Kremlin has touted its nuclear prowess throughout the two-year offensive in Ukraine, warning Western countries last month there was a “real” risk of nuclear catastrophe if they escalated the conflict.

This week, Russia President Vladimir Putin warned his nuclear forces were ‘always’ on alert and added that Moscow would not tolerate any Western threats.

‘Russia will do everything to prevent a global clash, but at the same time we will not allow anyone to threaten us,’ Putin said.

“Our triad, the nuclear triad, it is more modern than any other triad. Only we and the Americans actually have such triads. And we have advanced much more here,” Putin said in an interview on state TV earlier this year.

“(The West) should eventually realise that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory. Everything that the West comes up with creates the real threat of a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and thus the destruction of civilisation.”

While those comments have left analysts and officials on high alert for months, Putin has also admitted that nuclear escalation would be a step too far.

He believes the more pressing conflict with the US at the present is the war of information.

“In the war of propaganda, it is very difficult to defeat the United States, because they control the world’s media and many European media. The ultimate beneficiary of the biggest European media (outlets) are American financial institutions,” he told Tucker Carlson in their revealing interview earlier this year.

“We can only simply shine the spotlight on our sources of information, but we will not achieve results.”

Well, that’s a relief.

Originally published as Analyst explains exactly what happens in the seconds after a nuclear bomb is launched