No South East Queensland dam releases until rain from Cyclone Alfred begins
As millions of Queenslanders brace for Cyclone Alfred — and dams approach capacity — a big call has been made.
Environment
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More than half a million homes could be damaged if Tropical Cyclone Alfred makes landfall in South East Queensland, state government modelling has suggested, as communities in the region brace for impact.
The system, currently about 550 kilometres east of Brisbane, will head toward the coast on Tuesday afternoon.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predicts it will make landfall somewhere between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast late Thursday or early Friday morning, bringing with it gales with damaging wind gusts of up to 120km/h, life-threatening flash flooding and intense rainfall. Waves of up to 10m have been recorded off parts of Brisbane and the Gold Coast.
“We’re likely to see the strongest impacts close to (Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast) or to the south, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds generally wrap around that southern flank of a tropical cyclone,” BOM meteorologist Miriam Bradbury said.
“Damaging to destructive wind gusts are expected, heavy to locally intense rainfall and flooding, as well as the coastal hazards we’re already seeing developing.”
A cyclone watch has also been issued in northern NSW, for the first time since 1990.
‘Anxiously watching’: Huge Cyclone call made
Even though South East Queensland’s dams are almost full, not a single litre of water will be released until Alfred’s predicted 600mm of rain starts to fall.
“We don’t always know when and where rain will fall,” a Seqwater spokesperson told The Courier-Mail.
“Our 24/7 Flood Operations Centre is mobilised and – pending rainfall – is prepared to make controlled, gated releases later this week if required.”
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Though Wivenhoe Dam is 86 per cent full, Somerset Dam 80 per cent, North Pine Dam just 1.2 per cent below capacity, Seqwater said “flood storage compartments” were above the nominal 100 per cent levels, and remained fully available.
“Specialist flood engineers will continue to monitor and act in response to rainfall and inflows in the catchment,” the spokesperson said.
“Seqwater has several early preparation measures underway including optimising the SEQ Water Grid, maximising local water serves and stockpiling water treatment chemicals to prepare for potential road closures.”
The Gold Coast’s Hinze Dam is currently 99.5 per cent to capacity.
On Monday, Queensland Premier David Crisafulli urged Seqwater to be more transparent about the plan for water releases, “because you’ve got a whole heap of people who are anxiously watching the forecast”.
“Obviously the reason why the questions are so valid is there is water in the system at the moment and you do have catchments that have had rain, so on the back of it, that has to be factored into their modelling,” Mr Crisafulli said.
“We’re asking them to explain that – because that’s important to people from the point of release to when you might see that in the CBD, there’s a few days in there.”
Up to 660,000 homes could be damaged, modelling suggests
According to a Severe Wind Hazard Assessment report, conducted by the federal government’s Geoscience Australia in 2022, up to 660,000 homes could be in the firing line in the event of a category two cyclone.
One potential scenario – posed by Geoscience Australia “to better understand the potential impacts of severe tropical cyclones on population centres and elements of critical infrastructure in Queensland – outlined the result of a system similar to Alfred crossing the coast near Bribie Island, tearing through Brisbane and then the Gold Coast before leaving the mainland.
“The main impacts are concentrated at the southern end of Moreton Bay around Macleay and Russell Islands, and into the northern suburbs of Gold Coast City Council near Ormeau and Pimpama, with widespread areas of moderate damage,” the report read.
“Parts of Macleay and Russell Islands sustain extensive damage from winds, but would also likely sustain substantial damage from storm tide in this scenario.”
If such a situation were to happen, the report predicted 23,000 homes in the Redlands region, roughly 250,000 homes in Brisbane, and 155,000 homes on the Gold Coast would sustain some level of damage.
“Where there are heavily urbanised areas, there is typically lower damage due to the lower incident wind speeds likely to be experienced,” the report read.
“That contrasts with areas in the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast hinterland, where local accelerations over the steep topography will amplify the level of damage to houses in those areas.
“A Tropical Cyclone passing over the northern council areas will result in overall lower damage, but that may still be overwhelming for that community.”
Millions told to brace for days without power
Energex regional field delivery general manager Kev Lavender on Monday said South East Queensland’s four million residents should be prepared to go without power for at least three days after Alfred hits.
“Energex has been preparing for Cyclone Alfred since last week and the community can rest assured that we’re ready to respond to anything Mother Nature throws at us,” Mr Lavender said.
Residents on the Gold Coast have been told to plan for a week or more without power.
“We saw that in the recent storms on the Gold Coast last year. Anything less than that, that’s a bonus,” Energex area manager Renee Kath said.
In the event of damaged power lines, Ms Kath said crews will have to wait until it’s safe to begin repairs.
“We will have all available resources on the ground as soon as it’s safely possible to do so and obviously factoring there are areas that are harder to get to such as areas that may have had landslides,” she said.
Supermarket shelves stripped bare
Meanwhile shelves at grocery stores across the South East have started to empty, with reports that bottled water, bread and milk are among the essentials already running low.
Asked if he had concerns about panic buying, Mr Crisafulli said he understood “why Queenslanders want to do that”.
“It is important that people have sufficient food and water,” the Premier said.
“You should be prepared to be without power and should prepare to have your bottled water and you should have your spare batteries, spare charger for your phone, you should have batteries for a radio, you should have all your documents in one location.
“There is no harm in preparing and then not needing it. The harm is in not doing the work and – then when things become in a perilous situation if it gets to it – not being ready.
“So just do the little things, if you do the little things people will get through it.”
The message to supermarkets, Mr Crisafulli noted, “is restock the shelves as much as you can”.
Mr Crisafulli also warned residents against complacency.
“I’ve heard a couple of comments from people saying, ‘That won’t happen here’,” he said.
“Well, history shows it has. Fifty years ago, we had a category two (cyclone) cross the Gold Coast.
“If you do the preparation as an individual, we’ll get through this.”
– with NCA NewsWire
Originally published as No South East Queensland dam releases until rain from Cyclone Alfred begins
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