The sliding doors moment for 11 sides in the AFL finals hunt across 2024 season
In this tight season, one kick, free or moment can change it all. And just this once, we’ve gone back through the incidents 11 teams regret and how things could have changed.
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Liam Gallagher and Oasis once told us not to look back in anger.
But as the tightest home-and-away season in recent memory draws to its conclusion, it’s hard not to consider what could have been.
A missed shot at goal, a controversial free kick or a moment of madness could be all that separates a team from playing finals or not, or finishing top four or not.
With the top half of the ladder tighter than the Paris Olympics 100m dash, four points here or there could make a massive difference.
So before we turn our attention towards September, just this once, we can look back at the moment each club in the top 11 would desperately want back right now.
SYDNEY
The regret: The Swans sit a game and percentage clear on top and it would take a final-round disaster for them to let the minor premiership slip. There would be zero doubt if the Swans picked up one more win and the round 17 game against St Kilda was the biggest drop. The Swans led by 19 points at the final change and scored just five behinds in the final term with Logan McDonald missing a late shot to win it. Only a week earlier, McDonald also missed after the siren against Fremantle.
The result: If the Swans had won that game, they would have top position locked up.
PORT ADELAIDE
The regret: Port’s only real close loss this year was to Melbourne in round 3. But the result that would sting most surely has to be the Showdown loss in round 8. Before then the Crows had won just two games and then beat their arch rivals by 30 points.
The result: Another win in the column would leave the Power equal first on points with Sydney and far more assured of a home qualifying final.
GWS GIANTS
The regret: What would Tom Green give to have his downfield free against James Sicily back? In round 13, Green collected the Hawk late, leading to a downfield free kick and goal to Luke Breust that put Hawthorn up by six points with one minute to play. It was a bad misjudgment.
The result: Scores were tied when Green bumped Sicily so if we add the two points for a draw, GWS jumps up to second and in position for a home qualifying final.
GEELONG
The regret: The Cats gave the Power a 49-point head start on their home deck back in round 9 only to claw back into the picture. Down by a seven points with two minutes to play, the Cats thought they were taking advantage in their forward line and Jeremy Cameron kicked a goal only for the play to be pulled back by the umpire. The Cats would lost to the Power in Geelong for the first time in 17 years.
The result: A flipped result would have the Cats a game ahead of Port Adelaide on points and tied with GWS, putting a home qualifying final within reach.
BRISBANE LIONS
The regret: There are a couple to choose from here. Remember when the Lions led the Blues by 46 points in opening round and lost? We will go more recently though. Brisbane led Collingwood by 17 points with just over four minutes left on Saturday only for it to wash away.
The result: The Collingwood loss virtually ended Brisbane’s top four hopes, with the club relying on a Geelong misstep to be in the frame. With it, the Lions may have also lost their hopes of winning the flag.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The regret: Not as close as some others on this list but the Dogs just didn’t show up in round 22 against Adelaide and were pumped by 39 points. Given the club had won five games before then it remains a bizarre result.
The result: The Dogs are under the pump to make finals, needing to beat the Giants on Sunday. If the Adelaide result was flipped, Luke Beveridge’s side would sit fourth.
HAWTHORN
The regret: With just over 30 seconds left, the Hawks led the Power by 11 points in round 10. Stunningly, Darcy Byrne-Jones put his team in front with a clever soccer moments later.
The result: Flip that game and the Hawks would be ahead of Geelong and sitting in fourth on the ladder, while being just percentage behind the Power. Instead the Hawks are fighting for finals this weekend.
CARLTON
The regret: Once the ball left the boot, Mitch McGovern’s after-the-siren shot against Collingwood was clearly not going through the goals. It would have won the Blues the game and Carlton fans don’t need reminding they lost two thrillers to Collingwood this year.
The result: Change one of those losses and the Blues would not just be safe inside the top eight but sitting nicely in fourth.
FREMANTLE
The regret: In an incredible swing, Carlton were down by eight points with two minutes to play in Gather Round before two goals and a bonus from an abuse free kick put the Blues up by 10 points. The Dockers could only shake their heads. Otherwise impossible to forget – remember when the Dockers got pantsed by West Coast when the Eagles were truly hapless?
The result: Fremantle is currently two points behind Carlton on the ladder but reverse that game in Gather Round and the Dockers go ahead by six points and lock themselves into the top eight.
COLLINGWOOD
The regret: You know what Craig McRae would say if you asked him whether Dan McStay should have been given a 50m against Sydney in round 22. That would have put McStay dead in front with an easy set shot from 30m to put the Pies ahead right on the siren.
The result: Give the Pies another win and they sit equal with four others on 52 points. Their percentage would still leave them ninth but ready to play finals if one of the sides above slipped up.
ESSENDON
The regret: Where do you start? We could go on and on about Essendon regrets, so let’s keep it to one. Or 11. There is the 1.9 in the final term against the Gold Coast and then failing to get in Mac Andrew’s way as he marked then kicked the goal after the siren in round 22.
The result: Essendon would be on 50 points, alongside Fremantle, and just one win away from sneaking into the top eight.
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