Tokyo Olympics 2021: How Ariarne Titmus can down US champ Katie Ledecky in the 400m

Ariarne Titmus can create history in Tokyo, but she has to do the impossible to get there – beat US legend Katie Ledecky. James Magnussen breaks down exactly how the rising Aussie can do it.

Swimmer Ariarne Titmus posing at Milton, Brisbane 26th of September 2018. She won Commonwealth Games gold in 400m, 800m and 4x200m relay and silver in the 200m Freestyle. (AAP Image/Josh Woning)

The challenge facing Australia’s new swim sensation Ariarne Titmus is straightforward enough.

To fulfil her goal of being the best female swimmer in the world, first she has to beat the woman who already owns the title.

That’s American Katie Ledecky – the five-time Olympic gold medallist and multiple record holder – who has already been ordained by US media as the GOAT.

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Ariarne Titmus will be out to beat US champion Katie Ledecky. Picture: Adam Head

The pair will race each other four times in Tokyo – in the 200m, 400m and 800m individual freestyle races plus the 4x200m relay – but it’s the 400m that will decide who’s the best.

On current form, Titmus has the edge. She beat Ledecky to win the world title in 2019 and has the fastest time in the world in 2021.

But Ledecky is the defending Olympic champion and has the fastest time in history.

To win in Tokyo, Titmus will have to swim the perfect race and probably break Ledecky’s world record.

Australia’s double world champion James Magnussen explains how she can do it.

BEFORE THE RACE

“With the heats at night, then the final the next morning, Ariarne needs to conserve her energy between races and make sure she gets a good night’s sleep. That sounds pretty obvious but it’s easier said than done and it’s going to be hugely important for her. If she can’t sleep because she’s thinking about the race, it’ll be a burden on her so she needs to recover well and sleep soundly so that she gets on the blocks with the same energy levels that she had at the Olympic trials. If she does that, she’s halfway there.”

THE START

“In a 400m race, there’s not a lot to be gained at the start but you can quickly find yourself behind the other swimmers if you stuff up your underwater and have a poor breakout so Ariarne will just want to minimise any room for error and get straight into her rhythm.”

THE FIRST 100 METRES

“Ariarne has more easy speed than Ledecky so she’s got to use that down that first 100m. Ledecky is what you‘d call, in cricket terms, a flat track bully, so when she dictates the pace no-one comes near her so Ariarne needs to use her speed so she turns first after 100m, around 56.8 to 57.1.”

Titmus and Ledecky go head-to-head at the FINA World Championships in 2019. Picture: Clive Rose/Getty Images

THE SECOND 100 METRES

“This is one of the key parts of the race. Ledecky likes to lead after the 200m but at the world championships in 2019, Ariarne got to the front and it really unsettled Ledecky and made her change her race plan. What was really noticeable was that Ledecky swam away to the far rope so she could get away from Ariarne and look at what she was doing. That was when she knew she was in trouble because that’s just not something we would ever see from Michael Phelps.

THE THIRD 100 METRES

“This is when Ledecky will make her move so Ariarne needs to keep her nerve. Because she has more easy speed, Ariarne will have used less energy than Ledecky through the first 200m so she can‘t be unsettled if Ledecky takes the lead at the 300m mark. Ledecky will need to pick up her stroke rate and that will really zap her coming into the final two laps.”

Titmus shows off her gold medal at the FINA World Championships in 2019, ahead of Ledecky with silver and Leah Smith with bronze. Picture: Getty Images

THE LAST 100 METRES

“This is probably the simplest part of the race in terms of strategy because Ariarne just needs to swim over the top of Ledecky, just as she did at the world championships. It was very noticeable how clearly Ledecky faded on the last 50m. Their skills – at the turns and underwater – are pretty even because they’re both very good, but Ariarne’s kick is better by a country mile because Ledecky is very upper body dominant.

“If everything goes according to plan and Ariarne stays composed and sticks to her race plan, then I think she gets the gold. The biggest factor is that she’s got more easy speed so she can take control from the start and lead through the first 200m with plenty of energy left for the finish.”

Originally published as Tokyo Olympics 2021: How Ariarne Titmus can down US champ Katie Ledecky in the 400m