Run to the NRL grand final: Penrith favourites but Brisbane, Warriors can shake up competition
History suggests the NRL premiership is down to four teams as soon as finals start. Can any of Cronulla, Newcastle, Canberra or the Roosters defy the odds and make a title run?
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It’s been 27 rounds but the NRL finals are here at last.
Penrith are favourites to go all the way again, but the form of Brisbane, Melbourne, Warriors and Newcastle could cause some upsets along the way.
As they say, anything can happen in the finals.
In the NRL Run Home to the Grand Final, we predict who can make it to October 1 and how they get to the big dance from here.
By choosing not to rest stars in the final round, Penrith finished with their third minor premiership in four years and on a high leading into week one of the finals. They’ll be without Jarome Luai for an indefinite amount of time, but they’re super experienced at winning, regardless. A win against the Warriors at home will give them the week off before a preliminary final against most likely Brisbane or Melbourne.
Predicted finish: Premiers
They hosted Melbourne just last week but Friday night’s qualifying final will be a totally different game. Both teams rested all of their big stars but Storm ran away with a 32-22 win which will give them a shot of confidence heading into this one. The loss ended Brisbane’s seven-game winning streak which could impact their momentum, but they’ll get their big guns Adam Reynolds and Pat Carrigan back for this blockbuster.
Predicted finish: Runners up
After ending Brisbane’s hopes of winning the minor premiership, the Storm get a second crack at them in week one of the finals with a full-strength squad. Christian Welch, Cameron Munster, Nelson Asofa-Solomona all return to Suncorp where Melbourne have a very good winning record. If they continue their four-match winning streak they’ll get a week off, otherwise they’ll face either Cronulla or Sydney Roosters in week two in a sudden death semi-final.
Predicted finish: Preliminary finals
Like everyone else in the top four, the Warriors rested all their biggest name players for the final round but they look set to return in one of the toughest match-ups of the finals. The Warriors only faced minor premiers Penrith once this season, an 18-6 loss during Magic Round. They’ll need every ounce of magic they can muster here to beat them at home, but coach Andrew Webster has as much intel as anyone. He was assistant to Ivan Cleary and helped orchestrate Penrith’s recent success before helping the Warriors to a top four finish this season.
Predicted finish: Preliminary finals
They’re the most in-form team of the finals and bring a nine-game winning streak into their highest season finish since 2006. It’s earned them a home final in front of what will be a sold out, parochial crowd at McDonald Jones Stadium. They beat Canberra twice this year and as recently as six weeks ago, and are hopeful of getting Kalyn Ponga and Jackson Hastings back for this one too. If they lose they’re out, but a win will put them through to a semi-final in week two, likely opposite the Warriors.
Predicted finish: Semi-finals
Cronulla haven’t had an easy run into the finals but a 24-6 win over Canberra on Sunday assured them a home game at PointsBet Stadium. They’ve won four of their past five games, a 32-6 loss to Newcastle their only hiccup without star half Nicho Hynes. They haven’t played the Roosters since a 22-12 win on round 7, but both teams need a win to stay alive in the premiership race.
Predicted finish: Elimination finals
The Sharks have the home ground advantage but the Roosters have form. Five wins on the trot allowed the Roosters to scrape into the finals but that momentum could cause big headaches in a sudden death scenario. The winner of this game goes through to face either Brisbane or Melbourne in a sudden death semi-final next week.
Predicted finish: Semi finals
It’s been a miserable end to the season for Canberra, who were third in round 19 but slipped to eighth with five losses from their last seven games. They’ve also lost their last two games against Brisbane and Cronulla heading into the finals, and with Josh Papali’i injured and Corey Horsburgh and Sebastian Kris suspended, they’re severely depleted for this one. If anyone can get the team up for a finals shock, though, it’s Ricky Stuart. And the Raiders love an upset.
Predicted finish: Elimination finals
Originally published as Run to the NRL grand final: Penrith favourites but Brisbane, Warriors can shake up competition
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