NRL salvage missions: Which 2024 cellar dweller can bounce back in 2025?

The Warriors, Eels, Rabbitohs and Tigers have plummeted to the bottom of the NRL ladder. BUZZ ROTHFIELD and MICHAEL CARAYANNIS analyse which of the NRL’s disappointments is set for a resurgence in 2025.

It’s taken eight years but the Bulldogs are finally on the path back to the finals.

In a remarkable turnaround from bottom four to finals-bound in just 12 months, the Canterbury rebuild under Phil Gould and Cameron Ciraldo is paying dividends.

But what of this year’s cellar dwellers?

The New Zealand Warriors have gone from bottom four in 2022, to top four last year and back down this season.

Parramatta and South Sydney have endured almost identical slides from beaten grand finalists to the bottom of the ladder, jettisoning their respective head coaches along the way.

And the Wests Tigers will have their fourth consecutive bottom-four finish as they close in on a wooden spoon threepeat.

PHIL ‘BUZZ’ ROTHFIELD and MICHAEL CARAYANNIS analyse which of the NRL’s disappointments are best placed for a resurgence in 2025.

MC: The positive for the Tigers is that they’ve got their spine – one, six, seven, nine – locked in. And when you’re a struggling club, that’s usually a concern. So I think that’s the upside when you look at the Tigers.

Jahream Bula’s locked in at fullback. Lachlan Galvin, hopefully. He’s contracted for next year.

Jarome Luai is locked in long term. Apisai Koroisau, and then you’ve got Tallyn Da Silva waiting in the wings.

So the benefit for the Tigers is that most clubs that are struggling in the bottom four are trying to find that. So that’s the tick, right.

Samuela Fainu has been really good. I’ve really enjoyed him this year. Fonua Pole, he could potentially go to free agency on November 1, so they’ve got to try and get him locked in because he’s part of the long-term plans of that club.

But then, the roster starts to fall away after that.

Buzz: Seriously, and I understand everything you said about that spine, it’s a great spine, but look at Penrith. Rugby league clubs in this era in a big, strong, fast aerobic front-rowers. They do not have one to save themselves. And it’s going to come back to impact their momentum. Stefano Utoikamanu is a huge loss.

Shane Richardson is sitting there with a $2 million cheque book buying wingers.

I like his patience. I spoke to him earlier in the week and he’s not going to make the mistake of the previous Wests Tigers management, rushing out and buying someone and overpay him. But they need Reagan Campbell-Gillard more than St George Illawarra do. Their front row is so limited.

MC: I can’t I can’t disagree with you, there’s a lot of holes in that roster. But the upside is that they’ve got the players in the hardest position to fill – and the most important positions – they’ve got them locked in.

MC: Don’t forget the John Bateman situation. It’s still unresolved. How they let Isaiah Papali’i go, I don’t understand. I know he hasn’t been great, but you look at the side that he signed for, Penrith, he’s just proves that there’s potential.

I think that is going to be one that the Tigers regret, because Papali’i was not on stupid money, he’s an elite back rower who just has struggled. But then if he’s in that Wests Tigers side with that spine and he’s feeding off one of those guys a bit more, I think it would have been a great combination.

MC: There’s still a lot of uncertainty there. Look at that roster, they’re unable to sell Ryan Matterson, Maika Sivo is still on the chopping block, Shaun Lane, now it’s Reagan Campbell-Gillard right. So I think there’s a lot to happen. And there’s obviously been some innuendo that the club has shot down regarding Mitchell Moises’ future.

I do think the roster needs a generational shift. And I think that’s what, Jason Ryles is trying to do. But if there’s no buyers, then you’re stuck with players who know they are not exactly wanted, but they don’t have a better option so the stay.

I’m concerned about the Eels’ roster for next season. ‘

Buzz: I have a lot of faith in Ryles.

Charlie Guymer’s a very good young player. He might be ready for 26 NRL games next year. J’Maine Hopgood will be back from injury, too. You add those guys to this pack and it immediately looks better.

They’ll miss Penrith-bound Blaize Talagi. I don’t know where they go with recruitment, how much money do they have since signing Zac Lomax and retaining Bailey Simonsson this week, and who is available?

MC: They’ve got no money until they can offload a current player. They’ll have a little bit of the money they offered Talagi, but they need to move players before they can buy.

Otherwise, Jason Ryles is going to have to get the best out of the existing players he’s got there. Don’t be mistaken, there’s still some talent there. Ryan Matterson played Origin in 2022. Shaun Lane was one of the most dynamic back-rowers in the game two seasons ago. So there is talent in that roster.

Buzz: Eels CEO Jim Sarantinos sent me an interesting text recently, not making excuses, but to put their season into context – Mitchell Moses has missed 15 games, Bailey Simonsson 14 games, J’Maine Hopgood 13 games, Maika Sivo 11 games, Junior Paul nine games, Kelma Tuilagi seven games – they have been knocked about.

MC: The Tigers and Eels have the most potential, if we’re talking about this in a month’s time, to be in completely different situations. The Eels in terms of selling and what they can buy, and the Tigers in adding to that roster.

MC: There’s so much pressure on incoming English halfback Lewis Dodd next year.

Buzz: What money is he on next year, Mick?

MC: $700-750,000. Big, big money.

Buzz: Wayne Bennett is the best recruit ever for them.

MC: They’re an enigma, South Sydney. But there are the foundations there of a good side.

Buzz: You sound like a broken record. Prop Tom Burgess is going, where are their mids?

MC: Davvy Moale, Keaon Koloamatangi has done a really good job in the middle. Does that become his permanent position?

Buzz: They’re not really the “off-the-back-fence”-style forwards though, are they?

MC: Then you have Cameron Murray playing at lock when Jai Arrow is back. He’s been playing busted since Round 1.

Buzz: They’re not hard-nosed, grumpy, angry middles.

MC: Yeah, they’re representative players though.

Buzz: Look at look at their neighbours, the Roosters, with Lindsay Collins, Victor Radley and Spencer Leniu, that’s not including the departing Jared Waerea-Hargreaves. Souths don’t have an enforcer. Although, Wayne seems to manage front-rowers better than anyone. He seems to be able to get more out of them.

MC: It’s still a decent roster next year. Lewis Dodd. How does he work out? That’s a huge question. Because if he does, then Jack Wighton goes back to the centres and you have him and Campbell Graham on either side, and he hasn’t played all year, and that becomes a dual threat. You have Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker.

MC: So it’s still a pretty high-calibre side. And of those bottom-four sides, they’re better placed to push for the top eight next year.

MC: I have concerns around the Warriors.

I’m not sold on the Roger Tuivasa-Sheck experiment at centre. I know Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is a really good player, but I’d be trying to flip that and have Charnze at centre and seeing if that works better with Roger back a fullback.

The loss of Luke Metcalf to injury has been a huge blow for them. As Buzz always says, he’s got what you can’t teach – speed. So he’ll take a leading role next year with Shaun Johnson retiring.

Buzz: He can play too, Metcalf, it’s not just his speed.

MC: Their forward pack is still elite even with Addin Fonua-Blake gone. James Fisher-Harris comes in. Tohu Harris looks a little bit banged up. So there’s concerns about him next year. Dylan Walker’s done an awesome job playing that No.14 role or playing lock, like he is at the moment. So, there’s more of a solid nucleus than Parramatta and the Wests Tigers.

Buzz: Apart from Fisher Harris, which is a huge signing, but it really just cancels out losing Fonua-Blake, so I don’t see a lot of improvement outside of a fit Metcalf.

MC: No, not externally. The improvement has to come internally. They’ll have some money with Shaun Johnson retiring. What they do, if they go to the market, and what they look for, will be interesting. But I think the forward pack is still pretty elite.

THE VERDICT

Who’s better placed to climb out of the bottom four?

PHIL ROTHFIELD

1 Rabbitohs

2 Eels

3 Warriors

4 Tigers

MICHAEL CARAYANNIS

1 Rabbitohs

2 Warriors

3 Eels

4 Tigers

Originally published as NRL salvage missions: Which 2024 cellar dweller can bounce back in 2025?