NRL 2023 run home: Every game and final ladder prediction, top eight contenders

In one of the tightest finals races in recent history, 12 teams remain in contention with just four weeks to go. We predict who will secure a top eight spot and who misses out.

The 2023 NRL finals race is set to go down to the wire.

Brisbane and Penrith are far and away the best two teams in the competition this year, but nothing below them on the ladder is assured.

With four rounds to go until the NRL finals, the race for the top eight is alive with a jam-packed ladder and chaos in some major finals contenders.

The Roosters have played themselves into calculations on a mathematical basis, but the form of South Sydney, Canberra, Cronulla and Newcastle will determine who drops in and out of the finals over the next month.

We’ve crunched the numbers and found the teams set to buckle within the next month, those with an easy draw to finish and the teams who might just sneak into the finals after a wild ride.

1. PANTHERS

Won: 15, Lost: 5, Drawn: 0, Points: 36, Points Differential: 277

They’re almost untouchable again. Penrith have been the best team all season and could easily win through the last five games of the season. The finals fate of a few teams could rest on whether they choose to rest all of their big names in the last round against the Cowboys, who may be still scrambling to make the top eight by then.

2. BRONCOS

Won: 16, Lost: 5, Drawn: 0, Points: 36, Points Differential: 169

The Broncos are cruising at the right time. They’ve got three games to finish the year, with a bye nestled in at round 25. They should win all three, but a Storm side gunning for a top-four finish could trip them up.

Brisbane Broncos can secure a top 2 finish in the next fortnight. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty

3. WARRIORS

Won: 13, Lost: 7, Drawn: 0, Points: 32, Points Differential: 121

In one season Andrew Webster has whipped the Warriors into gear and they look set to finish in the top four for the first time since 2007. Three games in New Zealand and all against teams in the bottom eight to finish the year is a true gift.

4. STORM

Won: 12, Lost: 8, Drawn: 0, Points: 30, Points Differential: 81

Melbourne’s big guns have been down on form this season compared to their usual standards but they need to kick start their top four pursuit at home against the Raiders on Sunday afternoon. If they get on a roll, a finals-eve statement at Suncorp Stadium is within their power.

A wounded Storm side will cause plenty of damage on its way to securing a top 4 spot. Picture: Jason McCawley/Getty

5. RAIDERS

Won: 12, Lost: 8, Drawn: 0, Points: 30, Points Differential: -74

Ricky Stuart’s men barely scrapped by against the Tigers on Sunday, but they haven’t had a convincing win since May. This last month will be a true test of their potential against the Broncos and Storm, and finally a desperate Sharks side in the last round before finals. Their season is on the line.

6. SHARKS

Won: 11, Lost: 9, Drawn: 0, Points: 28, Points Differential: 80

The Sharks did themselves and their finals chances a huge favour by beating South Sydney but their patchy form needs to be gone for good to make it through the last four rounds. They face Cowboys, Knights and Raiders all gunning for a finals finish too.

7. KNIGHTS

Won: 10, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 27, Points Differential: 74

Five in a row and flying, the Knights now have a blessed draw with three of their last four games at McDonald Jones Stadium. They need to make a fortress of it to ensure their spot in the eight.

Newcastle is flying to the finals. Picture: Paul Kane/Getty

8. RABBITOHS

Won: 11, Lost: 10, Drawn: 0, Points: 26, Points Differential: 80

South Sydney has struggled to fire a shot and unless they make a rapid turnaround, they’re slipping out of the eight with teams around them humming towards the finals. A bye will help, but they need wins – and particularly against the Knights.

9. EELS

Won: 11, Lost: 10, Drawn: 0, Points: 26, Points Differential: 65

It’s a rough old draw for the Eels who are still a chance of making finals, but need a lot to go their way including beating Brisbane at home and Penrith at home. A bye in the last round helps but it might not be enough if they don’t beat at least one of the top teams, as well as the Roosters.

10. COWBOYS

Won: 11, Lost: 10, Drawn: 0, Points: 26, Points Differential: 32

A bye this week is a huge plus for the Cowboys who are in disarray and desperate to save their season. They’ll need to win their last three, including Penrith in the final round to be assured a spot.

The Cowboys are set to scrape through. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty

11. SEA EAGLES

Won: 9, Lost: 10, Drawn: 1, Points: 25, Points Differential: -35

A loss to Sydney Roosters has made things difficult for the Sea Eagles. They now have to beat either Penrith at Brookvale Oval or the Warriors in New Zealand to have a chance at making the top eight. And then only if everything goes their way.

12. ROOSTERS

Won: 9, Lost: 11, Drawn: 0, Points: 24, Points Differential: -100

A win against the Sea Eagles has kept the Roosters’ season technically alive. Their draw isn’t impossible either, but they’ll need to keep winning and count on other results to go their way to pull off a miracle.

Originally published as NRL 2023 run home: Every game and final ladder prediction, top eight contenders