NRL 2023 grand final: Expert tips and TAB guide for Penrith and Brisbane clash
First try-scorer? Margin? Clive Churchill? Our experts reveal their tips and picks for the 2023 NRL grand final between Penrith and Brisbane.
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First try-scorer? Margin? Clive Churchill? Our experts reveal their tips and picks for the 2023 NRL grand final between Penrith and Brisbane.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
$1.62 Penrith, $2.30 Brisbane
TAB’s Rohan Welsh: The market is leaning slightly to the Broncos with the value on offer. A TAB customer placed $38,000 on Brisbane at $2.35. The Broncos hold about 52 per cent of the money.
Dean Ritchie’s tip: Brisbane
LINE
$1.85 Penrith -3.5, $1.95 Brisbane +3.5
Welsh: TAB punters say the +3.5 start won’t be enough for the Broncos. The Panthers dominate line betting with almost 80 per cent of the hold.
Ritchie: Brisbane +3.5
MARGIN
$2.90 Penrith 1-12, $3.60 Brisbane 1-12, $3.10 Penrith 13+, $6 Brisbane 13+, $16 draw
Welsh: There has been a surge for the Panthers to win by 13+ with more than 30 per cent of support. However, Penrith by 1-12 remains the most popular margin option with around 40 per cent of the investments.
Ritchie: Brisbane 1-12
1ST TRY-SCORER
$8.50 B. To’o, $10 S. Turuva, $11 J. Arthars, $11 S. Cobbo, $11 S. Crichton, $12 I. Tago, $15 D. Edwards, $15 L. Martin, $15 R. Walsh, $17 K. Staggs
Welsh: Brian To’o dominates all try-scorer markets and holds about a quarter of the first try-scorer money with several notable outlays. Stephen Crichton at $11 has attracted attention, while Selwyn Cobbo and Herbie Farnworth are next best. Isaah Yeo and Billy Walters are popular roughies at $34.
Ritchie’s tip: K. Staggs
CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL
$3.25 N. Cleary, $7 R. Walsh, $8 A. Reynolds, $10 D. Edwards, $11 I. Yeo, $11 P. Haas, $13 P. Carrigan, $17 J. Luai, $19 L. Martin, $23 E. Mam
Welsh: Favourite Nathan Cleary is now best backed with around 18 per cent of the betting, narrowly ahead of last year’s player of the match Dylan Edwards. Reece Walsh had been most popular up until Thursday, while Liam Martin is well supported and Crichton at $31 looms as a smokey.
Ritchie: A. Reynolds
POINTS OVER/UNDER
$1.90 over 39.5, $1.90 under 39.5
Welsh: A popular one for same-game multis. Almost 95 per cent of TAB punters think the decider will be under the 39.5 barrier.
Ritchie: Over 39.5
WHO THE EXPERTS ARE TIPPING
Originally published as NRL 2023 grand final: Expert tips and TAB guide for Penrith and Brisbane clash
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