AFL draft 2021: How North Melbourne bidding on Nick Daicos would impact Collingwood

As it stands, North Melbourne holds the No. 1 pick in the AFL Draft. Here’s what they might do with it and how a potential Nick Daicos bid would affect the Pies.

Collingwood and North Melbourne will almost certainly secure the hottest two teenagers in this year’s draft.

For the Magpies it will be Nick Daicos, the dazzling father-son talent who has started 2021 NAB League with three consecutive best-on-grounds.

Daicos has gone 28 disposals and 3.2, 30 and 3.1 and 40 and 2.4.

Yes, 98 disposals and eight goals in three weeks.

For the wooden spoon-favourite Kangaroos, South Australian Jason Horne is the frontrunner to join Tom Powell, Jy Simpkin, Luke Davies-Uniacke and Will Phillips in a growing midfield pack at Arden St.

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Athletic left-footer Josh Sinn (Xavier College) could emerge as a contender, although this year’s draft is looking thin for top-end talent.

Whether it is Daicos at No. 1 and Horne at No. 2, or Horne at No. 1 and Daicos at No. 2, is likely to be determined by whether the Kangas bid on Daicos.

Either way, they are going to secure the same player, and so bidding on Daicos might seem insignificant.

But it’s not.

Just ask Luke Beveridge, the coach of Western Bulldogs’ buzz boy and last year’s dux, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, who has endured more publicity recently without playing a game than all of his 43 teammates combined.

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Jason Horne in action for the NAB AFL Academy. Picture: Michael Klein.

The presence of draft standout Daicos is a dilemma for North Melbourne, and one which the Magpies will be sweating over.

The Kangaroos, along with Adelaide and Port Adelaide, have never secured a player with the No. 1 pick.

The No. 1 pick is always the poster boy for the off-season. He is the great, white hope who is a dream for a club‘s marketing department. That factor could be amplified for the low-profile Kangaroos.

The No. 1 spotlight is not necessarily good for football — again, ask Beveridge — but it is certainly good for business.

Adelaide rewrote the rules last year by bidding their No. 1 pick on Ugle-Hagan.

But Crows fans were delighted they landed local boy Riley Thilthorpe, and the move was ultimately made to knock the Bulldogs’ next pick to the back of the draft so they couldn’t pinch SANFL goalkicker James Rowe before the Crows.

North Melbourne list manager Glenn Luff, a former Champion Data whiz, has an analytical mind. Coach David Noble is process-driven.

It is hard to see the bells and whistles of having the No. 1 selection impacting North’s talent order.

Under Luff, the Roos have placed second-round bids on Hawthorn’s Finn Maginness (2019) and Connor Downie (2020).

But Luff and right-hand man Scott Clayton’s recommendation on whether or not to bid on Daicos could go to the top at Arden St, where the Magpies would like to have an ear pressed against the door.

Nick Daicos has franked his claims as this year’s top draft prospect.

Roos chief executive Ben Amarfio declined to comment this week. It was fair enough, too, given it is only Round 8, and the Roos are a chance to join Collingwood at 1-7 on Saturday.

But the early mail in the recruiting world is that the Roos will have little hesitation in bidding, which would inflame Collingwood’s headache.

The Magpies currently hold picks 36 (tied to where Western Bulldogs), 39 (Collingwood), 43 (Adelaide), 47 (Fremantle).

With that hand they could match a bid for Daicos at pick No. 4 without going into points deficit for 2022, where their top pick would be affected.

But if a bid came at No. 1, and the Pies didn’t want to spend two years paying off Daicos, they would have to find another 758 points (pick 25) in this year’s trade period.

The market says pick 25 is roughly worth a Jack Higgins, Josh Bruce or Aliir Aliir, and so that is the calibre of player Collingwood could have to sacrifice to pay the draft bill for Daicos this year.

Should the bid come at No. 2 the current price would fall to 372 points (pick 43). It’s a sizeable drop, most likely riding on the Roos.

The Magpies, who are about to lose list boss Ned Guy, hope their draft hand improves courtesy of Adelaide, Fremantle and the Bulldogs sliding down the ladder.

A lot can, of course, still change this season.

But Hawthorn champion Jordan Lewis said this week he would rather be Noble than Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley.

If you were Daicos or Horne, or any draftee for that matter, would you rather start your career at the ground-zero Roos or the declining Pies?

In 2021 the Kangaroos have the youngest list, while injuries have reshaped Buckley’s age profile.

The Magpies were the AFL’s fourth-oldest club across Rounds 1-5, and have been the eighth-youngest in the past two weeks.

COLLINGWOOD’S DRAFT HAND (after Round 7)

Picks 36 (tied to where Western Bulldogs finish), 39 (Collingwood), 43 (tied to Adelaide), 47 (tied to Fremantle)

WHAT THEY WILL OWE IF THEY MATCH A DAICOS BID AT …

Pick 1: 758pts (pick 25)

Pick 2: 372pts (pick 43)

Pick 3: 145pts (pick 60)

Pick 4: Zero

PICK 1 OR 2 – COLLINGWOOD

NICK DAICOS (Oakleigh Chargers)

NAB League games in 2021: 3

Disposals: 32.7 (ave)

Goals: 8.7

SuperCoach points: 162 (ave)

Experts say his footy smarts and hunger to get the ball are elite. Daicos, a Carlton fan, has the agility to get out of trafficand while he can play almost anywhere, eventually a place as an inside midfielder beckons. Daicos calls for the ball everywhere because he always wants it — but when he’s ignored he maturely gets on with it and runs to the next contest.

PICK 1 OR 2 – NORTH MELBOURNE?

JASON HORNE (South Adelaide)

SANFL games in 2021: 4

Disposals: 13.3 (ave)

Tackles 4.8

SuperCoach points: 80

Nothing fazes the powerful midfielder and while his numbers this year are down, Horne’s SANFL final against Glenelg as a 17-year-old last year was superb. He was good in the recent AFL Academy game and has the right temperament to play AFL.

MCGUANE: DON’T TAKE EASY OPTION WITH MOORE, PIES

Mick McGuane

The easy option for Collingwood and Nathan Buckley this week would be to send Darcy Moore back to defence after two poor weeks in attack.

I say leave him forward and try to win Saturday’s game against North Melbourne rather than save it.

It’s not Moore’s fault that the move hasn’t yet worked.

Even the great Wayne Carey would struggle to get a kick in the Magpies’ forward line at the moment.

The root of the problem is indecision and slow ball movement — which is fixable.

Rather than swing Moore back, Bucks must challenge his players to play with more speed when in control of the ball, particularly centre-forward.

When they win the ball in the launch zone (60m to 80m from goal) they must turn and go and get it inside-50 before the opposition has a chance to get numbers back.

The reluctance to play quick, kick it to advantage or get it in deep and close to goal is paralysing.

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Where will Darcy Moore play this week? Picture: Getty Images

Collingwood must trust their big men to take a mark or at least make a contest and have faith their small forwards will get to their drop of the ball to lock it in with pressure.

You don’t get a bigger indictment on your club’s ball movement than when captain Scott Pendlebury said recently he “wouldn’t want to play forward.”

So enough of the indecision and waiting for a ‘perfect play’ — have some dare.

Also, Brody Mihocek had his best game as a Collingwood player against Gold Coast last week.

Moore attracts the opposition’s best defender and allowed Mihocek to get off the chain with 24 disposals, 12 marks and four goals against the Suns.

Is this a consequence of Moore playing forward?

The natives will get restless if another loss comes this weekend, because Collingwood is a proud club and everyone knows the coaching landscape is about wins and losses.

The heat is on coach Nathan Buckley, but equally it is on the players.

At some stage the players have to take responsibility for their turnovers, effort, intent, how they defend the ground and how they move the ball.

As much as the heat is on Buckley, surely the blowtorch is now directed at the players.

Last week was spiritless, pathetic and insipid.

Darcy Moore was a rock down back to start the season. Picture: Michael Klein

PIES ABANDON FAILED EXPERIMENT AS BUCKS BACKS DE GOEY

Nick Smart

Collingwood will revert to its old game plan and go more defensive in a bid to arrest its horrendous 1-6 start to the AFL season.

All-Australian Darcy Moore will go back into defence against bottom-placed North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium on Saturday as part of coach Nathan Buckley’s mandate to go back to what they know.

The Magpies were the slowest team in the league for ball movement last year, but they made the call over the off-season to become a lower-possession, more direct football team on offence.

It hasn’t had the desired result, and Buckley said a change had been implemented this week as the 17th-placed Magpies search for a way to kickstart their stuttering season.

Darcy Moore will return to the defensive arc this weekend. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

“We’ve been licking our wounds and we’re smarting from our recent form and we know that’s created a lot of commentary as to reasons why,” Buckley said on Thursday.

“We haven’t been sitting on our hands, we’re trying to find solutions that are going to work for us.

“And this week we sort of realised that when there are so many things that you feel like you can fix, you go back to what you know.

“The connection with us as a group is important and we’ve tipped time into that and we’ve reschooled our defensive shape, so that is largely where our focus has been and where we hope to effectively get the game on our terms.

“It hasn’t been consistent enough this year, it’s been a strong point of ours for a number of years.

“But that was then and this is now and we really need to improve our defensive actions and give ourselves a chance to play the game in our front half.”

The out-of-contract Magpies coach believed the side’s renewed defensive focus would reap rewards.

“I think you’ll find the better we defend, the better our offence is and not the other way around,” he said.

“We believe if we look after the first then the latter will come.”

Jordan De Goey was quiet in his return against Gold Coast. Picture: Michael Klein

It was reported this week mid-forward Jordan De Goey had copped a bake from some teammates following a poor showing in the Magpies’ loss to Gold Coast last weekend.

Buckley said the club would support De Goey as he fights to find some form.

“Jordie was knocked out in Round 5 and missed a game with concussion and then had one game back last week,” he said.

“There’s been a lot of commentary around that and it’s another narrative or storyline that’s taken place, but what I will say is a lot of it is inaccurate but trying to put out every little fire at the moment is not where our focus is.

“We support Jordie absolutely and he’s a young man who’s trying to contribute to the club as best he possibly can and he’s one of 45 in the playing group and the staff.

“Whatever we do win, lose or draw we’ll do together and we won’t carve anyone away.”

Is tactical change to blame for Pies’ big problems?

—Jay Clark

Collingwood had been one of the best high-possession teams in the competition.

Over the past few years, the Magpies have clearly been more kick-and-catch and maintain possession rather than a helter-skelter, up-the-middle football side.

And it must be said, to a large extent it has worked, playing in three consecutive finals series including falling a kick short of a premiership in the 2018 Grand Final.

But the whiteboard changes Collingwood made over the off-season to become a lower-possession, more direct football team on offence haven’t had the desired impact.

You can understand why the Magpies tried to innovate for 2021 after bowing out of the second week of the finals last year, and certainly the new man-on-the-mark rule encouraged quick play.

The Magpies were officially the slowest team with their ball movement, ranked 18th for average transition speed (24.3 seconds) between the defensive 50m to forward 50m arcs last year, according to Champion Data.

Brodie Grundy has been the top ruckman in the competition since Round 2, but Collingwood’s engine room has still struggled for centre clearances. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

But this year, they have sped up to ninth.

So, in a sense, the Magpies have tried to drop the hammer and get quicker with their offence this season to help boost their scoring power, but the move seems to have backfired.

Previously, Collingwood defended well and owned the footy.

It was patient game style that won them games.

But alarmingly, the Pies have dropped from the No. 1 team for disposals in 2020 to 15th this year and have sunk from sixth in uncontested marks to 15th.

In terms of the direction of the offence, the Magpies are sixth for using the corridor.

They are going up the middle more to be more quick and direct.

But now coach Nathan Buckley, who is under fierce pressure to help lift his side against North Melbourne on Saturday, must decide whether to ditch the new style and see whether his new-look and much younger Magpies can revert back to the go-slow one-wood.

Collingwood has been stuck in the rough all year and the midfield brigade, despite Brodie Grundy’s huge numbers, has failed to deliver through the first seven rounds.

Jordan De Goey has had little impact in the midfield. Picture: Michael Klein

Statistically, Grundy has been the top ruckman in the competition since Round 2, but it remains one of footy’s great mysteries that the Magpies rank third-last for centre clearance differential.

They are getting a hammering inside the centre square for the talent they have.

Game breaker Jordan De Goey is ice-cold after a poor performance onball against the Suns and Darcy Moore has gone from All-Australian defender to a lost forward.

Former Fremantle and St Kilda coach Ross Lyon said it was clear Moore should return to a key defensive role after the Pies conceded “some of the softest goals I have seen” against the Suns.

“Moore is not touching it (forward), he has got frostbite,” Lyon said on Triple M.

“Quite simply if Moore plays back in that game (against Gold Coast) Collingwood win.”

If they go down to North, immediate questions will be asked about Buckley’s future.

Darcy Moore’s move forward has not been a fruitful one. Picture: Michael Klein

And the question of game plan and tactics is a considerable one.

Injuries to interceptor Jeremy Howe and star clearance winner Taylor Adams have hurt.

Buckley acknowledged the Pies have had trouble controlling the footy in 2021, but he said the club was working on a fix.

“It is largely around uncontested possession. We have been one of the higher differential sides for uncontested possession teams, but we haven’t been able to control the ball and we haven’t been able to get it off the opposition well enough,” Buckley said.

“Some of that is in and around the contest and some of it is in open play.

“There are some areas we are focusing on that we think is going to make some distinct shifts in our capacity to find our best footy and be more efficient.”

Originally published as AFL draft 2021: How North Melbourne bidding on Nick Daicos would impact Collingwood