Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses all 10 races at Royal Randwick on Saturday, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses all 10 races for Royal Randwickon Saturday, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.

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RACE 1: Keeneland September Yearling Sale Hcp 1100m

NAZWAH (7) is out of a very good filly who has turned into a very good broodmare. Her name is Najoom and she was already thrown stakes winners Charm Stone and Najmaty and the way this filly won on debut, she might get to black-type herself. That said, this is absolutely no slam dunk for her. OPEN SECRET (4) beat United States here on debut and was sixth in all three subsequent runs in the Inglis Millennium, Sweet Embrace and Magic Night. trialling well. The chances of SHAGGY (1) went up, big time, when he drew barrier 1.

Bet: Nazwah to win

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RACE 2: Midway (Bm72) 1600m

KINGSTON CHARM (2) is indeed a member of David Hains epic family that delivered the fastest Melbourne Cup winner ever, Kingston Rule. As for Kingston Charm, she is much more a miler than a two miler; Randwick miler too. NOSEY PARKER (11) is known for getting back and charging home, mostly, in 1200m races but he actually ran a pretty decent race at Wyong at his only 1600m run when Willie Pike rode him. CALLISTEMON (9) is the obvious one. SUNSOURCE (8) might be the value.

Bet: Kingston Charm to win, box trifecta 2, 8, 9, 11

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RACE 3: Tab Highway Plate (C3) 1800m

IN SUMMER (6), the Typhoon Tracy relation, has three wins, three seconds and a third from eight starts. He was third last start in a Highway here but was, in my opinion, the moral victor. The two that beat him had all the favours whereas he had none. A lot of that goes for RED RAG TO BULLS (7) too who was fifth in that on-pace Highway. How could those two not run 1800m? OFF THE SCALE (8) has already won over ‘the Tchaikovsky distance’ (1812m) by four lengths then won at Scone by three lengths over 1700m.

Bet: In Summer to win

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RACE 4: The Agency Real Estate (Bm72) 1300m

CODETTA (1) has been pretty darn unlucky this preparation. You could make a sane case to argue that the half sister to Riff Rocket could, even should, have won any or all of her three starts this time in but for wide barriers and track bias etc. Barrier 4 this time, 2kg off, even luck she wins in my opinion. Could it be the same trifecta as the July 5 race here with GOLDEN STRAAND (8), who was runner-up that day, and DIDDLE DUMPLING (2), who won, both fronting up again? Sure can. Outside of those, one has to acknowledge that SIGNOR TORTONI (3) is on a hat-trick himself.

Bet: Codetta to win

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RACE 5: Mostyn Copper (Bm88) 1600m

Just for some context, I was declaring RUBY FLYER (1) first-up in the Winter Stakes but the fact that he was $41 to $51 suggested, perhaps, that he would need the run. The long and short of it was that he was 11th of 13 but only beaten six lengths and I thought he ran through the line with purpose. Loves the 1600m and loves Randwick. One has to be totally forgiving of Big Dance placegetter SUPER HELPFUL (2) first-up given he bombed the start. OH DIAMOND LIL (4) is bombproof.

Bet: Ruby Flyer to win, Super Helpful to place

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RACE 6: Tab (Bm78) 1800m

Tasmanian Oaks runner-up VERY SEWREEL (9) was my Black Booker from the July 12 meeting here even though she ran ninth of 13. That was her first run for Bjorn Baker but she is familiar with Randwick given she came from Waterhouse and Bott. Terrible bias on the day, she has to be marked ‘up’ for what was an already honourable return over 1400m; 1800m this time. SHE’S UNUSUAL (5) is a last start track and distance winner. Been on an upward trajectory all preparation. CHANGING COLOURS (7) had no chance with the bias here two weeks back.

Bet: Very Sewreel each-way

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RACE 7: Marcellin College Randwick (Bm78) 1300m

GENTLY ROLLED (7) was another one of the horses beaten by the bias here last start. She, like a few others I could mention, were launching down the middle of the track and at a normal Randwick, they all just keep going and end up winning. Not so that day. Drawn wide which doesn’t really hurt her if the track is fair this time but honestly who knows with this rather extravagant rail placement? UNSTOPABULL (6) is on a seven day back-up and boy did things go badly for him last Saturday.

Bet: Gently Rolled each-way

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RACE 8: ATC Thank You Trainers (Bm88) 1100m

We all use the term ‘unlucky’ a lot, so apologies for the overflow in this week’s column but seriously, how unlucky was CIGAR FLICK (4) here the other day? I know she is not everyone’s cup of tea, for some she is poison, but honestly and truly, if the best Cigar Flick shows up, she has to be in the finish. STORM THE RAMPARTS (1) is ‘211212’ this preparation and I’m tipping Cigar Flick. The world’s gone mad! But one last time and if she gets rolled, goodbye. LULUMON (10) was beaten by the bias last start.

Bet: Cigar Flick, Daily Double 1st Leg 4, 2nd Leg 9

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RACE 9: ATC Thank You Owners (Bm72) 1100m

RANTAN (10) has been incredibly unlucky (there’s that word again) this whole three start campaign. Unless this rail placement spoils it for backmarkers, I am working on the wide barrier being favourable, or at very least, not disadvantageous to her winning prospects. APACHE BREEZE (18) is $9 the place which is an inviting price about a horse in form and nearing a win. Like him at Randwick with its big straight.

Bet: Rantan, Apache Breeze each-way, quinella/duet 10, 18

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RACE 10: ATC Thank You Stable Staff (Bm78) 1800m

Have to raise the bias again from that meeting here on July 12 given we could see loads of horses that finished out of the placings, in the placings this weekend but only if the rail placement makes it possible. Enter the Bryce Heys-trained KING RATEL (9) whose three runs since that two years-plus absence have contained serious merit. MIRACLE SPIN (3) won a trial in fine style ahead of this. TRAVOLTA (5) wants 1800m now, big time. Respect for PUNTIN (6).

Bet: King Ratel each-way, Travolta to place

Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday