Four-Play, Quadzilla: Gilbert Gardiner’s $200 betting strategy for Derby Day at Flemington

News Corp form analyst Gilbert Gardiner is betting in all three Group 1s on Derby Day as he gives his $200 strategy and quaddie tips.

News Corp form analyst Gilbert Gardiner gives his $200 betting strategy and quaddie analysis for Derby Day at Flemington on Saturday.

■■■■■

FOUR-PLAY: $200 BETTING STRATEGY

RACE 3: GROUP 3 RISING FAST STAKES (1200m)

$50 win REY MAGNERIO (11) at $4.50

Long range plan for Rey Magnerio to bookend the Melbourne Cup carnival with respective sprint assignments. The Robbie Griffiths and Mathew de Kock stable went close to winning this race last year with Najeem Suhail. Rey Magnerio should be ready to peak third-up, has run super the past two starts. Held up at a crucial stage last start but once clear savaged the line to go down by the barest margin. Respect SCHWARZ (6), won two of three first-up starts and runner-up on the other occasion.

Estriella returns back to form and wins the Millennium Sprint! 💛💚 @[e-mail]/4WDHvLtZ3N

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 19, 2024

RACE 6: GROUP 1 COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200m)

$50 win TRAFFIC WARDEN (3) at $4.20

Fresh legs could be a factor, as long as the Godolphin colt gets into the barriers and away without any issues. Traffic Warden was strongly fancied in The Everest last month before he was scratched behind the gates for playing up in the stalls. First look at the straight under race conditions but super talented and has won at Flemington previously, around the bend. SWITZERLAND (5) and FIRST SETTLER (6) among the dangers. GROWING EMPIRE (1) has two wins and two mighty Group 1 performances under the belt, hard fit but weary?

RACE 7: GROUP 1 VICTORIA DERBY (2500m)

$25 each-way KEENELAND (3) at $10/$3.30

Respect EL CASTELLO (1), the Group 1 Spring Champion winner has drawn poorly, and KING OF THUNDER (8), along with Flemington-based RED ACES (2) but Keeneland the forgotten horse on the scene here. Won two on the trot to emerge as a Victoria Derby candidate and then touched off in the Caulfield Class last start, slowly run and small field a recipe for defeat. Big field, stronger tempo on Saturday and bigger track looks ideal.

Estriella returns back to form and wins the Millennium Sprint! 💛💚 @[e-mail]/4WDHvLtZ3N

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 19, 2024

RACE 8: GROUP 1 EMPIRE ROSE STAKES (1600m)

$25 each-way AMELIA’S JEWEL (2) at $6.50/2.40

ATISHU (1) clearly the horse to beat, matched motors with Australia’s best weight-for-age stars the past four starts and loves Flemington but a sense of timing about Amelia’s Jewel. Drawn low, not beaten far in the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes and has won at Flemington previously, the Group 2 Let’s Elope Stakes (1400m) last year. Blinkers on again, ready to peak on the big stage? Gone 14 months without another win, the only query.

QUADZILLA

LEG 1 – RACE 6

TRAFFIC WARDEN (3) and GROWING EMPIRE (1) the clear top picks based on exposed form. Growing Empire pipped in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes against the older horses and then placed third in The Everest. Traffic Warden won the Run To The Rose first-up and then touched off by Broadsiding in the Golden Rose. Major players. SWITZERLAND (5) next best.

1ST LEG: 1, 3, 5

LEG 2 – RACE 7

EL CASTELLO (1) must be respected, won four on the bounce including the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes last Saturday. Shocking draw not ideal but class to burn. KEENELAND (3) the pick of the Victorian-based three-year-olds, won two in a row and then touched off in a slowly run Caulfield Classic. Expect him to bounce back hard and distance should not be a concern. RED ACES (2) and POLITELY DUN (7) next best.

2ND LEG: 1, 2, 3, 7

• Early Oil: Derby Day tips and analysis

LEG 3 – RACE 8

ATISHU (1) has placed fifth and second in the Empire Rose the past two seasons, could she go one better? Absolutely. Raced against the best at weight-for-age the past four starts and now back against her own. AMELIA’S JEWEL (2) has the class and firepower to get the job done here also, along with New Zealand raider ORCHESTRAL (3). PLENTY OF AMMO (13) is untapped and must be respect, soft win last Saturday at The Valley in the circumstances.

3RD LEG: 1, 2, 3, 13

LEG 4 – RACE 9

SANS DOUTE (3) has won four of five at Flemington and gets the services of James McDonald aboard. Drawn middle so options abound and ticking over nicely. Ready to peak fourth up. ISTHMUS (17) luckless last start and copped interference at a crucial stage. PHARARI (15) has speed to burn and hard fit to handle the 1100m at Flemington. Include CIGAR FLICK (10) at a price.

4TH LEG: 3, 10, 15, 17

COST $100 FOR 52%

SKINNY QUADDIE

Start with GROWING EMPIRE (1) and TRAFFIC WARDEN (3). In the second leg take EL CASTELLO (1) and KEENELAND (3). Then in the third leg take ATISHU (1), AMELIA’S JEWEL (2) and PLENTY OF AMMO (13). Come home with SANS DOUTE (3), CIGAR FLICK (10) and PHARARI (15).

1ST LEG: 1, 3

2ND LEG: 1, 3

3RD LEG: 1, 2, 13

4TH LEG: 3, 10, 15

COST $100 FOR 277%

Originally published as Four-Play, Quadzilla: Gilbert Gardiner’s $200 betting strategy for Derby Day at Flemington