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Black Caviar Lightning runner-by-runner form assessments and selections

Racenet’s Clinton Payne presents his tips and form assessment for each of the runners in Saturday’s Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning at Flemington.

Clinton Payne
3 min read
February 13, 2025 - 1:33PM
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The $1m Black Caviar Lightning Stakes has drawn together some of the nation’s best speed machines, with a field of 12 runners declared for the 1000m weight-for-age contest.

Here is Clinton Payne’s runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up on Saturday.

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1 – MAZU

Last win came on a bog in April last year and his last first-up win was over 1100m in a Benchmark 78 in February 2022. Did run well in his only start down the Flemington straight when fifth behind In Secret in the 2023 Newmarket Handicap carrying 57kg. Never won over 1000m.

VERDICT: It would be a surprise to see him win.

2 – MORNINGTON GLORY

He’s five from five over 1000m and he did win the Moir Stakes over this trip at weight-for-age during the spring. Has never won first-up since his debut but this is sure to be a target race so expect him to be ready off two jumpouts.

VERDICT: Ticks quite a few boxes.

3 – JOYFUL FORTUNE

Veteran galloper whose career has been plagued by injury in the past few years. Burst back onto the Aussie scene in 2022, running in The Everest before injury struck again. First run back was in the Standish in January and he was far from disgraced with 59kg over 1200m. Won a jumpout since.

VERDICT: Fast horse yet to prove himself at the elite level.

4 – WAY TO THE STARS

Speedy galloper that ran the race of his career in the spring when a game third in the Concorde Stakes behind I Am Me and Bella Nipotina. Won four of six first-up, has a good 1000m record over the and did win over this course during Melbourne Cup week. Sure to be wound up to produce his best.

VERDICT: He’ll run well but this looks beyond him.

5 – PHILOSOPHER

The match-fit horse of the race. Comes into this off a professional performance to win a Listed Handicap over 1000m at Sandown late last month. This is a huge class rise from that.

VERDICT: Not up to this grade.

6 – I AM ME

Quality sprinting mare with an outstanding fresh record. Lowered the colours of Bella Nipotina when resuming in the spring in the Concorde Stakes. A proven weight-for-age galloper that is a winner down the straight. Has been cruising with her ears pricked in trials.

VERDICT: Genuine Group 1 sprinter and this is in her wheelhouse.

7 – BENEDETTA

Talented mare with a strong Flemington record. Won her maiden Group 1 in the Goodwood then didn’t race during the spring after knocking a leg and being put away. Two jumpouts to prepare for her return, the latest a third down the straight course last week. Untried at 1000m, a two-time winner from five 1100m starts.

VERDICT: Quality straight-tracker that can run a race.

8 – STRETAN ANGEL

Classy galloper whose record doesn’t match her quality. Only won twice from 13 starts but she’s generally thereabouts when she steps out at Group 1 level. Second in the Goodwood and fourth down the straight in the Champions Sprint were her last two elite level performances. Won her only jumpout in preparation for this.

VERDICT: Place claims are strongest.

9 – SKYBIRD

Lightly raced mare that ran well first-up down the straight in the Bobbie Lewis over 1200m last spring. Never raced at 1000m and her only run over 1100m resulted in an unplaced performance. All her best form has come over 1200m to a mile.

VERDICT: These will be too sharp for her.

10 – GROWING EMPIRE

Exciting colt that was outstanding in the spring, winning twice before placing in three Group 1 starts, two at weight-for-age in The Everest and Manikato Stakes. This is his first start over 1000m but he has won over 1100m. Been cruising in his jumpouts.

VERDICT: Fast horse and fast horses win this race.

11 – SWITZERLAND

Star colt that showed his true colours winning the Roman Consul behind making a real statement when thrashing his rivals in the Coolmore Stud Stakes last spring. Been kept on the bridle in his trials and James McDonald is riding him rather than staying in Sydney to ride Via Sistina, Joliestar and Lady Shenandoah.

VERDICT: Could be the best sprinter in the country.

12 – TRAFFIC WARDEN

Came from well back to make a winning statement when resuming in the Run To The Rose last spring behind a gallant and close second in the Golden Rose (1400m) behind his star stablemate Broadsiding. Then scratched in the barriers in The Everest and ran below expectations in the Coolmore Stud Stakes. Trials good.

VERDICT: Top colt that shouldn’t be discounted.

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CLINTON PAYNE’S TIPS
1st – SWITZERLAND (No. 11)
2nd – GROWING EMPIRE (No. 10)
3rd – I AM ME (No. 6)
4th – TRAFFIC WARDEN (No. 12)

Originally published as Black Caviar Lightning runner-by-runner form assessments and selections

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Original URL: https://www.thechronicle.com.au/sport/horse-racing/black-caviar-lightning-runnerbyrunner-form-assessments-and-selections/news-story/8ca03f778ce94f0f986dd40bbdc9d1e8