How Australia can qualify for the 2026 World Cup examined

Australia is on the verge of securing its spot at a sixth-straight World Cup but faces two daunting tasks to clinch direct qualification. We break down how Tony Popovic’s side can make it and the rivals to watch.

The Tony Popovic revolution has taken Australia to the cusp of sixth consecutive World Cup appearance.

Whether the path remains smooth or gets rocky will be determined by two decisive fixtures in June.

The Socceroos host the already-qualified Japan in Perth on June 5 before taking on their closest rival Saudi Arabia in what looms as a potential eliminator six days later in Jeddah.

Popovic has helped rescue a campaign which appeared destined to end in disappointment, remaining undefeated in six matches since succeeding Graham Arnold.

Popovic said after his side’s 3-1 victory over China: “Now the challenge is a great one. You’ve got Japan and Saudi and can we improve once more in June against the best team in Asia?

“We’re in a good position. It’s in our hands. But we have to get the job done.”

The World Cup’s expansion to 48 teams has given Australia a better chance than ever of qualifying – and there will be no dreaded playoff against a South American foe.

Here are the scenarios the Socceroos need to qualify for the World Cup:

VS JAPAN, JUNE 5 – PERTH

What a win means (Australia moves to 16 points): Japan is yet to lose in qualifying, recording six wins and two draws (one was against Australia). If Australia can end Japan’s unbeaten run, its spot in next year’s World Cup is assured unless Saudi Arabia overturns what would be a minimum 10-goal difference in its final two matches (which it must win to finish equal with Australia in this scenario).

What a draw means (Australia 14 points): Australia’s qualification will be secure if Bahrain defeats Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia wins, it will close to within one point of the Socceroos. Indonesia would be two points behind with one group match remaining if it defeated China. It opens up the scenario that Australia could finish fourth in Group C.

Australia drew with Japan the last time the two countries met.

What a loss means (Australia 13 points): Being equal on points with Saudi Arabia if it defeats Bahrain. A draw against Saudi Arabia would then still be enough to finish second unless Indonesia wins its final two games against China and Japan. Indonesia would finish one point ahead of Australia with 15 points under that scenario, which would send the Socceroos into the fourth round of qualifying.

LIKELY SCENARIO

Australia loses to Japan (13 points)

Saudi Arabia defeats Bahrain (13 points)

Indonesia defeats China (12 points)

Saudi Arabia will provide a stern test for the Socceroos.

VS SAUDI ARABIA, JUNE 11 – JEDDAH

What a win means: The Socceroos finish second behind Japan in Group C and qualify for the World Cup. Saudi Arabia’s maximum points tally would then be 13 points.

What a draw means: The Socceroos will finish second on goal difference unless Saudi Arabia defeats Bahrain by 10+ goals in its penultimate match or Australia loses heavily to Japan. The current goal difference is +11 in Australia’s favour. Indonesia could leapfrog the Socceroos into second with wins over China and Japan in its last two matches.

What a loss means: So much rests on Saudi Arabia’s match against Bahrain prior to facing the Socceroos. If Saudi Arabia wins to draw level on 13 points and then defeats the Socceroos, the fourth round beckons for Australia. If Bahrain can take a point – or three – then Australia will almost certainly only need a draw to qualify from its final game.

LIKELY SCENARIO

Australia draws with Saudi Arabia (14 points, ahead on goal difference)

Saudi Arabia finishes third due to goal difference

Japan defeats Indonesia (fourth on 12 points)

WHAT IF AUSTRALIA DOESN’T FINISH TOP TWO?

It’s not over yet. The extra 16 teams who will qualify for the World Cup has opened up another two avenues to reach the biggest tournament in world football.

The teams which finish third and fourth in the three third-stage groups will be broken into two groups of three and play a round-robin style tournament.

The winner of each fourth-round group makes the World Cup.

WHAT IF AUSTRALIA DOESN’T WIN THE FOURTH ROUND GROUP?

Then, it’s still not over as long as the Socceroos avoid finishing third in their group of three. The two second-placed teams from the fourth round will meet in a two-legged playoff – al all-

too familiar scenario for Australian football fans.

WHO COULD AUSTRALIA FACE IN THE FOURTH OR FIFTH ROUND?

Uzbekistan (world No. 57) only needs one win from its remaining games to join Iran at the World Cup. United Arab Emirates (65) are likely to finish third, while Qatar will reach the next round unless it loses its last two games and Kyrgyzstan wins both its fixtures.

The three Asian qualifying groups are very open. South Korea (world No. 23) have set the pace in Group B but are only three points clear of Jordan (62) with two matches to play. Iraq (59) and Oman (77) are also in the mix.

If Australia falls into the fourth round, it will be joined by either Saudi Arabia (world No. 58) or Indonesia (123).

WHO’S ALREADY QUALIFIED FROM ASIA?

Only Japan and Iran.

Uzbekistan, United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Jordan and Australia are guaranteed to reach the fourth round of qualifying.

Originally published as How Australia can qualify for the 2026 World Cup examined