BBL14 predicted ladder: Which teams will finish in finals spots?

A gutsy win in the west has left Sydney Thunder in pole position for a top-two BBL finish. But, will injuries hurt David Warner’s side? We predict how the rest of the tournament will play out.

Get set for a frantic finish to BBL14.

The race for the top four will go into overdrive in the next two weeks and only intensify when the Australian Test players return.

Perennial contenders Sydney Sixers and Perth Scorchers have set the pace, but every finals spot is up for grabs with about two weeks of the regular season remaining.

We predict where every team will finish and examine the key matches.

The Sixers have been the early pacesetters.

SIXERS – PLAYED 6, WON 4, LOST 1, 1 NO RESULT (9 pts)

WE SAY: With four games to play, the Sixers are in the box seat to clinch another finals berth – and more importantly, a spot in the Qualifier. Their net run rate is ranked fourth, which could prove costly, but Moises Henriques’ side has performed admirably to win without BBL leading wicket-taker Sean Abbott for much of the tournament. Their depth will be tested later from mid-January once James Vince and Akeal Hosein head to the middle east. But a returning Abbott will be a huge boost and Jack Edwards has shown he can fill the top-order role which Vince will vacate. Expect Steve Smith to open the Indian series wraps up though.

REMAINING GAMES

STARS – MCG

PERTH – SCG

STRIKERS – ADELAIDE OVAL

THUNDER – SCG

TEST PLAYERS TO RETURN – Steve Smith, Sean Abbott

WHO’S LEAVING – James Vince, Akeal Hosein (last game January 9)

PREDICTED FINISH: 1st – Should win at least two of their remaining matches and secure a spot in the Qualifier. Look most likely to face the Scorchers or Thunder in their first final.

David Warner’s Sydney Thunder has set a platform for a finals tilt, but Daniel Sams’ absence will hurt. Picture: Mike Owen/Getty Images

THUNDER – PLAYED 5, WON 4, LOST 1 (8)

WE SAY: The win in the west — after losing Daniel Sams and Cameron Bancroft midmatch— has set the Thunder up for a tilt at a Qualifier spot. Few would have given the Thunder much chance in Perth, especially after they had to replace two of their key men midmatch. It means with half their matches still remaining, the prospect of a Sydney Smash qualifier is very much alive.

REMAINING GAMES

HEAT – GABBA

HURRICANES – ENGIE STADIUM

HURRICANES – NINJA STADIUM

SCORCHERS – ENGIE STADIUM

SIXERS – SCG

TEST PLAYERS TO RETURN — Sam Konstas

WHO’S LEAVING — Lockie Ferguson and Sherfane Rutherford (last game January 8)

PREDICTED FINISH: 4th – Losing Ferguson mid-tournament will be a big blow, especially with Daniel Sams and Cameron Bancroft now sidelined. The Thunder has enough quality to overcome Ferguson’s departure and clinch a top-four finish, even with a gruelling draw. Whether they can land a mid-season international signing might decide their top-two prospects.

Getting Jhye Richardson back will be a huge boost for the Scorchers.

SCORCHERS – PLAYED 5, WON 3, LOST 2 (6)

WE SAY: Here they come – again. The perennial contenders look ominous ahead of the run home as they prepare to welcome back Mitch Marsh and Jhye Richardson from the Test squad. The Scorchers are pushing for a top-two spot despite Aaron Hardie missing games through injury, Josh Inglis being with the Test squad and Jhye Richardson joining him in recent weeks. Inglis’ availability is uncertain after a calf injury, but Marsh will bolster the top-order and Richardson is one of the BBL’s premier quicks. If Finn Allen’s form holds up, they’re still one the teams to beat — although the last-bal loss to Sydney Thunder hurt.

REMAINING GAMES

RENEGADES – OPTUS STADIUM

SIXERS – SCG

THUNDER – ENGIE STADIUM

STRIKERS – OPTUS STADIUM

TEST PLAYERS TO RETURN – Mitch Marsh, Jhye Richardson

WHO’S LEAVING – No one

PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd – The games at home will be significant. Perth’s quicks are so formidable at Optus Stadium. The match against the Sixers could decide top spot or which team reaches the Qualifier. Doesn’t feel like Perth has been close to its best yet and the Scorchers still sit third. Watch out when it does all click.

Riley Meredith has made a strong start to BBL14 for the Hurricanes.

HURRICANES – PLAYED 4, WON 3, LOST 1 (6)

WE SAY: Win two of the three home games left and the Hurricanes will have one foot in finals. Last year five-and-a-half wins was enough to finish in the top four, so three wins from the remaining six matches should — at the very least — have Hobart in contention. There a several potential banana skins during the run home. The Heat could be playing to keep their title defence alive and the Stars will be a difficult prospect if they have nothing to play for. Peter Hatzoglou and Caleb Jewell are the likely replacements for Hope and Salamkheil. Nikhil Chaudhary needs to bowl every game — the Hurricanes are a better team when he does.

REMAINING GAMES

STRIKERS – NINJA STADIUM

THUNDER – ENGIE STADIUM

THUNDER – NINJA STADIUM

RENEGADES – NINJA STADIUM

HEAT – GABBA

STARS – MCG

TEST PLAYERS TO RETURN — None

WHO’S LEAVING — Waqar Salamkheil, Shai Hope (last game January 8)

PREDICTED FINISH: 5th – Had the Hurricanes missing out on finals due to net run rate. A lot rests on how Jewell and Hatzoglou fare when they replace Hope and Salamkheil. If Rileyt Meredith can stay fit the full tournament, it will go a long way to securing a first finals berth since BBL11. Mitch Owen’s emergence at the top of the order has made a big difference.

Xavier Bartlett appeals for a wicket. Picture: Albert Perez/Getty Images

HEAT – PLAYED 5, WON 2, LOST 3, NO RESULT 1 (5)

WE SAY: The reigning champions have disappointed in the first half of their title defence. Skipper Colin Munro has 23 runs in four innings, English all-rounder Paul Walter is averaging 76 with the ball and spin twins Matt Kuhnemann and Mitch Swepson have three wickets combined in five matches. The Heat missed key players early in the tournament but are close to full strength now, so there’s no excuses if they miss out on finals.

REMAINING GAMES

THUNDER – GABBA

STRIKERS – ADELAIDE OVAL

HURRICANES – GABBA

RENEGADES – MARVEL STADIUM

TEST PLAYERS TO RETURN — Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne

WHO’S LEAVING — Tom Banton (last game January 6).

PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd — Still confident the Heat can mount a finals charge. The Stars loss was a setback, but they’re still on the cusp of the top four with stars such as Colin Munro yet to have any impact. Spencer Johnson and Xavier Bartlett are arguably the premier pace pairing in the BBL and history shows the best bowling attacks succeed more often than not. They need Labuschagne and Khawaja firing from the moment they return but have a late surge in them.

Will Sutherland is enjoying a standout season as Renegades skipper — but will he lead his side to finals?

RENEGADES – PLAYED 5, WON 2, LOST 3 (4)

WE SAY: The Renegades’ campaign is teetering after a comprehensive loss to Adelaide Strikers on Thursday night. Their net run rate is significantly better than the other teams ranked 4th-8th though. Winning both matches against the Stars would be a good start, but they’ll enter the first derby of BBL14 needing a sharp form turnaround. It wouldn’t be a shock if first-year coach Cameron White tries to shake up the line-up to avoid his maiden campaign in charge slipping away.

REMAINING GAMES

STARS – MCG

SCORCHERS – OPTUS STADIUM

STARS – MARVEL STADIUM

HURRICANES – NINJA STADIUM

HEAT – MARVEL STADIUM

TEST PLAYERS TO RETURN — Nathan Lyon

WHO’S LEAVING — Laurie Evans, Hassan Khan, Jacob Bethell (TBC)

PREDICTED FINISH: 7th — The Renegades are a very difficult side to read. At their best, they’d be title contenders. But Jake Fraser-McGurk has struggled, Laurie Evans is yet to produce the type of form he showed as a Scorcher and Mack Harvey has battled in the No. 6 spot. It wouldn’t come as a huge shock if they went on a winning run or dropped every game from this point. That’s how tough they are to predict. Their batting at Marvel Stadium is a big concern.

Brendan Doggett has bolstered the Strikers’ bowling attack in recent games. Picture: Kelly Defina/Getty Images

STRIKERS – PLAYED 6, WON 2, LOST 4 (4)

WE SAY: The Strikers’ season might rest on Matt Short’s broken toe. The Adelaide skipper was just threatening to hit top gear when he went down with injury and has missed the past two games. Adelaide has been a bowler light in most games, but introducing Brendan Doggett in the past two matches has given the Strikers an extra pace weapon. They’re a dangerous side, but the plan to play two spinners hasn’t quite had the desired effect.

REMAINING GAMES

HURRICANES – NINJA STADIUM

HEAT – ADELAIDE OVAL

SIXERS – ADELAIDE OVAL

SCORCHERS – OPTUS STADIUM

TEST PLAYERS TO RETURN — Travis Head, Alex Carey

WHO’S LEAVING — Jamie Overton (TBC, England T20 and ODI series vs India starts Jan 23),

PREDICTED FINISH: 6th – Adelaide’s squad is a death bowler short and that has cost the Strikers several times already this year in close matches. Finishing the season against the Sixers and Scorchers is a huge ask when Adelaide might need to win both of those games to secure a top-four spot. Key all-rounder Jamie Overton is likely to be gone by the time they travel west too for England’s T20 series against India.

Marcus Stoinis and his Stars are staring at another summer without finals. Picture: Albert Perez/Getty Images

STARS – PLAYED 6, WON 1, LOST 5 (2)

WE SAY: There’s a remote scenario where every possible result falls the Stars way and they scrape into finals. The more likely scenario is that they cause some damage on the run home and shape the top four. Losing the first five matches of the campaign effectively ended the Stars’ hopes of finals and securing a maiden BBL title.

REMAINING GAMES

RENEGADES – MCG

SIXERS – MCG

RENEGADES – MARVEL STADIUM

HURRICANES – MCG

TEST PLAYERS TO RETURN — Beau Webster, Scott Boland

WHO’S LEAVING — Dan Lawrence (last game January 4), Usama Mir (last game January 12), Ben Duckett (TBC)

PREDICTED FINISH:8th — A real ‘what could have been’ summer for the Stars. You watch them dismantle the reigning champion at the Gabba and wonder how they have only won once so far in BBL14. Marcus Stoinis’ leadership has been impressive but a lack of pace firepower has hurt. Import Tom Curran had little impact in the first season of a two-year deal before suffering a calf injury.

Originally published as BBL14 predicted ladder: Which teams will finish in finals spots?