Analysis: What Australia can learn from India’s Test series loss to New Zealand

A coach under pressure, fading giants, and unproven, inconsistent rookies trying to fill the void. Australia could not ask for a better chance to reclaim the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

India is there for the taking.

Australia’s hopes of reclaiming the Border-Gavaskar Trophy have been done no harm by New Zealand’s 2-0 series win over India with a Test to go.

Whether the Indians win the Mumbai dead-rubber or not, they will arrive down under hurting, with new coach Gautam Gambhir firmly under pressure, as well as captain Rohit Sharma.

Just two Test series into his tenure, Gambhir has overseen India’s first home series defeat in 12 years. That comes after losing a bilateral ODI series against Sri Lanka for the first time since the ‘90s. He will be firmly under the magnifying glass if things get ugly in Australia.

The new coach has not been helped by the waning powers of India’s modern greats. More than the end of India’s home dominance, that is his bigger concern heading into the Border-Gavaskar Series.

Virat Kohli trudges off after falling to a full toss. Picture: Punit Paranjpe/AFP

Sharma, who is expected to miss one of the first two matches for personal reasons, is averaging 31.05 in Test cricket this year, and 13 across four Tests since Gambhir came in.

Virat Kohli is averaging 27.22 in 2024, with just once score above 50 across five Tests. He was bowled by a full toss by Mitchell Santner in the first innings this week.

The modern day great seemed back to his best in 2023 (average of 55.91), but that year looks an outlier – he has averaged less than 30 in every calendar year since 2020, with just two centuries from 33 Tests.

“In this series, we might not have been able to bat the way we wanted but such things happen,” Sharma said. “We’ve made runs consistently on challenging pitches in India. I don’t want to think we’ve done a lot wrong.

“Two of our batting matches were bad, two or three innings were bad, but it happens. Sometimes you consistently win matches and do well but in one or two series it doesn’t happen.”

India's head coach Gautam Gambhir (L) and captain Rohit Sharma are both under pressure. Picture: Idrees Mohammed/AFP

However, consistency has been something badly missing from the Indian team for a while now in what has been a bumpy transition between the generations.

Ajinkya Rahane and Cheteshwar Pujara were both central figures last time India toured Australia. Both veterans have been moved on from thanks to diminishing returns and a generation of young stars nipping at their heels.

Unfortunately for India, those massive shoes are yet to be properly filled. India’s first choice No.3 Shubman Gill, is a stroke maker rather than a grinder in the mould of Pujara. When it works he’s as good as any batter to watch. But with troubles against the moving ball, and an average of 36.36, the Australians will sniff blood. He does have a century to his name against Australia, and his 91 set up India’s famous Gabba chase in 2021.

There has been a rotating door at No.5 for India since Rahane was ushered out, with Shreyas Iyer (avg 36.86), KL Rahul (33.87) and most recently Sarfaraz Khan (46.25) all given the chance.

With a first-class average of 67.52, and a century and three fifties from his first five Tests, there is plenty to like in the unorthodox Khan. A man who inverts the ‘V’, scoring largely between gully and fine leg rather than mid-on and mid-off, Khan is as dangerous as any Indian batter once he gets set – the issue is in getting set, with his rapid second-innings 150 in the first Test against New Zealand juxtaposed by scores of 0, 11 and 9 in his three other knocks for the series.

India's captain Rohit Sharma is reluctant to stick the boot in the batting order. Picture: Punit Paranjpe/AFP

None of these problems are new, and what has kept the wins ticking over for India since Kohli’s slump has been its trio of generational all-rounders – Rishabh Pant, Ravindra Jadeja and Ravichandran Ashwin – dragging the team to defendable totals.

That hasn’t happened against New Zealand in home conditions. How likely is it to away?

Both Jadeja (35 years old) and Ashwin (38) are slowing down now, and neither made it to the end of the 2020-21 Border-Gavaskar series due to injury – a more and more common occurrence for both men – and the chances of India playing both will be largely down to conditions.

There are still positives for India however, and major dangers for Australia to be wary of.

Jasprit Bumrah remains Jasprit Bumrah, and while India don’t have Mohammed Shami this time around, they’ve gone as close to a clone of him as they could in Akash Deep.

On the batting front, alongside the long awaited coming of age of Sarfaraz Khan, has been the rise of 21-year-old gun Yashasvi Jaiswal.

Averaging 59.65 with a strike rate of 70.79, Jaiswal threatens to take cricket by storm in the same way Kohli and Sachin Tendulkar did before him. He is a fearless stroke maker that will have commentators reminiscing about Virender Sehwag if he is able to deliver on the hype next month. That’s a big IF.

As impressive as Jaiswal has been, that record has been built up on success at home and in the West Indies. His lone tour of South Africa saw him make a top score of 28 and average 12.50.

Over to you, Mr Pant.

Last time around, he got the job done at the Gabba in an Indian XI featuring net-bowlers and up-and-comers after injuries cut through the touring squad.

He has scripted an even greater fairytale in his return to cricket after coming close to death in a car crash eighteen months ago.

As long as he is there, Australia will know better than to underestimate India.

Originally published as Analysis: What Australia can learn from India’s Test series loss to New Zealand