NBL22: Andrew Bogut prediction for final table

Andrew Bogut has one Melbourne team marked as title favourites and the other a shock finals absentee. Here’s why he thinks only one Victorian side can squeeze into the four.

Coach of the South East Melbourne Phoenix, Simon Mitchell speaks to Zhou Qi during the round 11 NBL match between South East Melbourne Phoenix and Tasmania JackJumpers at John Cain Arena. Photo Darrian Traynor/Getty Images.

The South East Melbourne Phoenix have been championship contenders all season, but they are the unlucky fifth that cannot fit into my four.

That’s the view of Andrew Bogut, who has doubts over the Phoenix’s ability to defend the perimeter with import big man Zhou Qi.

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1: Melbourne United

United are clear championship favourites, but the pressure is on them to convert their success into another title.

They make their money on the defensive end, where they are really solid in the back-court with the menacing tandem of Delly and Shea Ili.

Matthew Dellavedova has helped Melbourne United surge to the top of the NBL ladder. Photo: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images.

Big man Jo Lual-Acuil is in MVP contention. He has been unbelievable. Jack White has impressed coming off injury and Chris Goulding is the best local pure scorer in the league

United also has an import spot up their sleeve, and I would bank on them using it.

2: Perth Wildcats

The Wildcats will return home after an extended period away and those home games will help them finish in second.

They are still trying to find consistency and they’ve had a few injuries much like most teams, but whenever you’ve got Bryce Cotton and Vic Law, you will always be tough to beat.

Perth star Bryce Cotton is again in the MVP mix. Photo: Brett Hemmings/Getty Images.

If the Wildcats didn’t have all those home games coming up, they would be further down my list, but being at home for a huge chunk is huge for them.

3: Sydney Kings

The Kings are finding form and consistency at the right time of the season.

Gun guard Jaylen Adams is fully healthy and showing the league how good he is.

He is in MVP candidate and could quite possibly be the best two-way player in the NBL.

My thoughts on the @SydneyKings and Jaylen Adams aka the BEST PG IN THE NBL. #Nbl22#[e-mail]/CmtYTg30ZD

— Corey “Homicide” Williams (@chomicide) February 22, 2022

The acquisition of former NBA championship winner Ian Clark is enormous for the Kings to provide another scoring punch off the bench.

Xavier Cooks and Jarell Martin are working wonders in the paint.

How the Kings are playing now is what we expected when we put together this roster.

4: Illawarra Hawks

As bad as the Hawks have been at stages, coach Brian Goorjian has the ability and the talent to make the finals.

I thought they would be more consistent this season, especially defensively. They haven’t looked engaged at times which usually isn’t a staple of Goorjian’s teams.

Offensively they have a lot of guys who think it is their turn to jack up a shot in different trips down the floor, or at least it seems.

Guard Tyler Harvey needs to aim up for the Hawks to make the finals. Photo: Jenny Evans/Getty Images.

I’ve seen a few time-outs where Goorj is pleading with his team to play hard and questioning if they want to win. Every team goes through that, but I’m tipping Goorj to steady the ship. He is too proud and too good of a coach just to let the Hawks fold.

5: South East Melbourne Phoenix

My concern with the Phoenix is big man Zhou Qi, especially on the defensive end.

I knew coach Simon Mitchell would have to structure his defence to be a drops style coverage and I don’t know that he likes to play that coverage, or is comfortable with it.

Under Mitchell, SEM have never been a drops team.

We saw it against Brisbane last round. Zhou didn’t play that much, and the Phoenix went to a smaller line up with more active bigs like Brandon Ashley and Dane Pineau because he (Mitchell) likes to be up to touch on ball screens.

The Phoenix face a challenge on the defensive end with import big man Zhou Qi, according to Andrew Bogut. Photo: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images.

I thought that would be an issue for him from the start, so I’m interested to see how he adjusts.

Mitch Creek is once again putting together a great season.

Covid has also caused issues with their consistency with steady line-ups.

6: Adelaide 36ers

The 36ers are still a talented roster. Coach CJ Bruton has gone through the “Honeymoon” adjustment period of coaching. I think his side will settle a bit and they will battle their way up to sixth position.

Mitch McCarron, Daniel Johnson and even Cam Bairstow have all shown enough to help the 36ers finish the season strongly. Will they fill that import spot for an added boost?

7: Tasmania JackJumpers

I’ve been really impressed with the way the JackJumpers have come together in their first season.

Coach Scott Roth has done a fantastic job. I thought they’d be last or second last because I didn’t think they were that deep and could be one injury away from having their rotation messed up. I thought they were 6-7 deep and their bench got pretty thin beyond that.

Together on 3 🤜🏼🤛🏼 pic.twitter.com/67k03AXFLS

— Tasmania JackJumpers 🐜 (@JackJumpers) February 20, 2022

But the JackJumpers have sustained their form and they just outplay everyone. You can tell coach Roth has them playing with a chip on their shoulders like they aren’t supposed to win this many games. Well done, Tassie. Well done, Scott Roth.

8: Brisbane Bullets

The Bullets have the talent, but they are little too inconsistent for my liking.

They have great games and poor games, and you can’t compete with the best teams over a long season playing like that.

Bullets guard Nathan Sobey remains one of the NBL’s best players. Photo: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images.

Nathan Sobey, Robert Franks, and Lamar Patterson are as gifted as anyone in the NBL. They could still make a little run, but I can’t see them making a push for the finals given the strength of the teams above them.

9: New Zealand Breakers

Inconsistency has been a major problem for the Breakers. Add in being away from home and it is going to be another unsuccessful season for the Breakers.

You feel for them being away from home, and not having a true home court through the Covid ravaged last few years.

10: Cairns Taipans

The Taipans can’t score the ball and it has cost them all season.

They play hard defensively, they hustle for loose balls, but just not enough talent to put the ball in the hole.

Can import guard Scott Machado help the Taipans avoid finishing last? Photo: Albert Perez/Getty Images.

Scott Machado returning to full strength might have them steal more wins, but I can see them finishing last like most people predicted at the start of the year.

Originally published as NBL22: Andrew Bogut prediction for final table