NBL 2024: Melbourne United season preview, starting five analysis, predictions and more
The talent, cohesion and intensity at Melbourne United makes them early NBL24 title favourites. There’s just one Kings-sized asterisk. DETAILED SEASON PREVIEW
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Melbourne United’s off-season rebuild and how quickly Dean Vickerman has been able to turn them into a cohesive unit has been the envy of the NBL.
But they missed the playoffs last season for the first time under Vickerman’s reign and there’s an arch rival up north — eyeing a rare three-peat — that didn’t come close to producing what it’s best might look like in NBL24.
Michael Randall takes a deep dive into how Melbourne United is shaping up ahead of Thursday night’s season opener.
Club: Melbourne United
Last season: 7th, 15-13 record
Prediction: First
Coach: Dean Vickerman, 292 games (182-110)
Full roster: Ariel Hukporti, Brad Newley, Campbell Blogg, Chris Goulding, Flynn Cameron, Ian Clark, Jo Lual-Acuil Jr, Kyle Bowen, Luke Travers, Malith Machar, Matthew Dellavedova, Robert Loe, Shea Ili, Tanner Krebs, Zac Triplett
BENCH PUNCH
Ian Clark: Arguably the NBL’s best bench player. The NBA champion, who helped Sydney claim its first title in nearly two decades in NBL22, will give Melbourne United a potent punch and most likely close games with his cool head in pressure situations. Clark averaged 13.9 points on 47 per cent shooting from the field in his 16 games with the Kings on their charge to the championship.
Ariel Hukporti: The NBL Next Star is primed for a bumper season after recovering from an Achilles injury that sidelined him for the entire NBL23 campaign. Now fitter and stronger, Hukporti has his sights on next year’s NBA draft lottery. He looked like a physical beast at the pre-season Blitz to help United win the Loggins/Bruton Cup and will step into the starting five for as long as Jo Lual-Acuil Jr is out.
Tanner Krebs: Krebs, 27, is coming off his most productive year of basketball, making 16 appearances with the Brisbane Bullets last season, 15 of which came in the starting line-up, and he arrives at United as the perfect player to complement Dean Vickerman’s system. Is long, committed defender who shoots the three well and doesn’t need the rock to be effective.
COACH’S CORNER
“We didn’t make it last year. We didn’t make the playoffs so the first goal is for us is to get to those 16 wins and get back to being a playoff team and that’s all I really want to talk about, right now, as far as goals are concerned. Defensively, there’s so many different styles in our league this year. We played three teams during the Blitz and they all had their own styles. Brisbane were heavy on ball pressure and disruption up the floor. Illawarra played more with trapping, pressing and disruption up the floor and then you go play the Kings who are all about switching everything. We’re still a team that, as best we can, we like to fight over the ball screen and stay connected to the body, use our physicality and try to drive people to an area that we think is the best situation for us and try and dictate as best we can. We’ve got really good rim protection, we know what Ariel can do, we know what Jo Lual-Acuil Jr can do, we know what LT brings. When you have that support behind you, you can get after and protect the basketball and we’ve got some elite guys in Delly and Shea who can get after it. We’ve also got some really smart guys offensively. So we’re trying to keep it as simple as we can in our spacing and get that right to make sure we’ve got enough room to play. Then we’ll work out whether we’re slipping screens, setting screens, playing out of rescreens, playing out of penetration. We’ve had some really good games where we’ve had 30-plus free throws and we’ve had some games where we’ve made 12-plus threes, so we’ve got a combination that gives us really good scoring punch. But, as I said, there were three different styles of defence that we played against at the Blitz and you’ve got to be good at each one of these styles in how you counter-attack it.”
—Dean Vickerman
WHAT’S CHANGED SINCE LAST YEAR
A hell of a lot, beginning with coaching staff. Lead assistant Justin Schueller and development coach Darryl McDonald have left for the Brisbane sunshine, replaced by club legend David Barlow, the elevated Rhys Carter and former Tasmania JackJumpers assistant and Boomers analytics wiz Jacob Chance. All three (four) imports from last season are gone, replaced by elite Australian talent — and an NBA champion in Ian Clark. Former players Jo Lual-Acuil Jr and Matthew Dellavedova are back, ensuring a familiarity, despite the roster overhaul and they’ve welcomed young gun Aussies Luke Travers and Tanner Krebs. Ariel Hukporti is back on the floor after a ruptured Achilles ended his NBL24 campaign before it began. If last season was as bad as it gets, it’s been quite the opposite so far, this time round.
THE HOT SEAT: ARIEL HUKPORTI AND LUKE TRAVERS
Coming off a season out of the game with a ruptured Achilles, United had hoped to ease Hukporti back in but, with Jo Lual-Acuil Jr’s injury, they won’t have that luxury. The 21-year-old enters his third season as a Next Star at United as the starting centre and needs a big year to achieve his NBA draft dream. Travers took a big leap, leaving the relative confines of his Perth home for the big city in Melbourne in a bid to come out of his shell and find the necessary improvement to convince his NBA team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, it’s time to bring him in. The early signs for both are incredibly good, right now, but it’s a long season and how they manage the bumps will be key to their future prospects. Two of the most-talented young players in the entire league.
THE BIG QUESTION
How long will JLA take to get up to speed and how do they feed the masses?
When Jo Lual-Acuil Jr was forced to have wrist surgery, United struck gold again when Dean Vickerman coaxed Rob Loe to come out of retirement. But the dependable veteran Kiwi is not the player Lual-Acuil Jr is at both ends of the floor — few are. So United will spend the first few months of the season figuring out how to play with Ariel Hukporti as the focal point at centre, then have to figure out how to integrate another high usage player in Lual-Acuil Jr while still keeping everyone happy. It’s a good problem to have and Vickerman and company will lean on the famous culture of sacrifice, but they must get it right.
EXPERT COMMENT
Former United guard and NBL media personality Pete Hooley believes his former club is the early favourite for the chip — with a King-sized asterisk.
“It’s hard without seeing Sydney yet at full strength but, as of right now after the Blitz, you’d have to say United are the favourites,” Hooley said.
“To play as well as they have without JLA, they’ve brought back Delly, signed Luke Travers and added really strong complimentary pieces.
“I like the young, the old and the in between age demographic, I think that’s the perfect mix they have and, once they get JLA healthy, over a five-game series, if they get there and they’re rolling, they're going to be pretty tough to stop.”
Hooley believes coach Dean Vickerman has a juggling act on his hands with so much talent, but isn’t concerned, given the quality of people they’ve brought into the organisation.
He even floated Vickerman might take a horses for courses approach with his line-ups.
“Coaches say ‘at the end of the game, we’re going to play whoever’s playing well’ but, deep down, you know that’s not really the case, you’re going to play your studs,” Hooley said.
“But, looking at the roster, maybe that’s a genuine thing and that’s exactly what’s going to happen.
“They’ve got enough talent there, that, right now maybe they’re looking at closing games with Shea, Ian, CG, LT and JLA but if Delly’s got 25, then maybe someone takes a seat who normally wouldn’t. If Ariel’s killing them, maybe he closes instead of JLA, and maybe Tanner gets hot from deep or he’s shutting down the opposition’s best wing and he sees it out.
“They have so many options.”
PREDICTIONS
Mick Randall says: Stacked with high level talent two and three deep at some positions, United has undergone the mother of all level-ups in NBL24. Dean Vickerman has so many different looks he can throw at opponents at both ends of the floor that they’ll be a nightmare for opposing scouts. If it all clicks — and it appears to have done so very quickly — United looks primed to put the tumult of NBL23 behind them with a deep finals run as a third title in six seasons beckons.
Matt Logue says: Melbourne United deserve to be championship favourites. United possess a potent mix of youth and experience while coach Dean Vickerman is among the NBL’s best mentors. Veterans Matthew Dellavedova, Chris Goulding and Shea Ili combine perfectly with the next crop like Luke Travers, Ariel Hukporti and Tanner Krebs. Throw in NBA/NBL champion Ian Clark and reliable vet big Rob Loe and United will be very hard to beat in NBL24.
CODEBET
Title odds: $5.50 (via bet365)
The winners of NBL Blitz, United made headlines in the off-season with the return of Aussie hoops icon Matthew Dellavedova and the signing of the Flying Mullet, Luke Travers, and the initial 3-0 Blitz results (including a handy dismantling of Sydney) speak for themselves.
After going a disappointing 15-13 last season coach Dean Vickerman has another NBA champ in Ian Clark to lean on, while Ariel Hukporti is back after missing last season and spent NBL Blitz dominating both ends of the court. With Shea Ili and Chris Goulding teaming up with Delly and the likes of Tanner Krebs, Zak Triplett and Rob Loe, this is a deep, experienced squad that is deservedly priced in the top four teams in the league.
Best Bet: NBL champion ($5.50)
—Jaymz Clements
SUPERCOACH
Luke Travers (G-F, $2) should be in every SuperCoach team. He’s priced just below an import and his versatile game allows him to provide SuperCoach scoring punch in virtually every category. Even if he is coming off injury, Ariel Hukporti (C, $172,100) is priced well unders for an ultra-talented centre who is expected to be the starter for the best part of two months while Jo Lual-Acuil Jr (C, $353,900) recovers from injury. Matthew Dellavedova’s (G, $255,300) monster scoring outbursts at the NBL Blitz have put him on SuperCoaches radars and veteran leader Chris Goulding (G-F, $262,100) should have some huge games, given the breadth of talent on the roster. Kyle Bowen (F, $69,000) looms as a potential POD cheapie at just 1.2 per cent ownership. United has the double in round one, giving SuperCoaches plenty of spoils to choose from.
KEY STATS YOU NEED TO KNOW
—Between Matthew Dellavedova and Ian Clark, United has 902 NBA games experience on the roster, the most in the NBL
—Melbourne ranked 1st for blocks per game (4.1) last season.
—United had a turnover percentage of 15.3 per cent last season, the second-worst in the league
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