Wreck it Ralph: Players who can change their reputation with a big finals series
Reputations are made in September – for better or worse. And the next four weeks offers Gary Rohan a shot at redemption. See who lifts and who needs to prove themselves this year.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
By the time North Melbourne tagger Ben Jacobs had reduced Trent Cotchin to a nervous wreck in a 2015 elimination finals loss, the critics were circling.
He couldn’t kick with the wind or impact the contest in the 2014 Adelaide Oval finals debacle against Port Adelaide, and couldn’t get it done with four effective touches as the Roos obliterated the Tigers the next year.
Two years and three weeks later, Cotchin was being compared to Michael Voss.
As Jon Brown said on the eve of the 2017 grand final: “I don’t like to compare too often, but the great Michael Voss used to use his body as a battering ram when he sensed big moments. And I feel like Trent Cotchin is doing that in this finals series”.
In the days after that drought-breaking premiership, coach Damien Hardwick was labelling Cotchin’s astonishing finals series “as good as I’ve seen from a captain”.
The point is this: for the very few great finals players who are born. The vast majority endure early struggles to earn their reputations.
Watch every match prior to the AFL grand final Live & Ad-Break Free In-Play on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start your free trial now >
Players can change their fortunes in the space of a single finals series, as Cotchin proved in that 2017 month of September.
Finals football is insanely tough – every mistake magnified, every easy kick accumulated in winter blowouts against bottom-four sides suddenly gone.
But for whatever reason there are some players who consistently rise to the occasion, as triple North Smith medallist Dustin Martin will attest.
Champion Data’s statistics identify five players who have lifted considerably compared to their home-and-away outputs in the specific seasons they played those finals.
In Tom Lynch’s 2019 and 2020 finals series he averaged 94 ranking points, six marks, 2.2 goals and two contested marks, compared to his home-and-away average of 70 ranking points.
Jeremy Howe, Alex Neal-Bullen, Rory Lobb and Christian Petracca round out the top five.
Collingwood’s Taylor Adams has won coaches votes in five of his eight finals and peeled off a 2018 finals run of 26 possessions, six clearances and seven tackles (West Coast), 25, five and 10 (GWS), 36, seven and five (Richmond) and 31, nine and five (West Coast).
Adams told the Herald Sun on Monday he couldn’t explain why he had been able to lift in finals.
“I really don’t know. I am not sure, I have been really lucky to play in some awesome finals,” Adams said.
“Midfielders tend to get coaches votes, I like the high pressure. Less running and more contests suits my style of footy. But I have also had a couple of bad finals as well.
“I don’t get caught up in it. We are still playing the same sized oval and still have 17 teammates out there on the field, so I feel really confident in the block of work we have done that we can go out and get it done this week.”
Joel Selwood famously showed then-Herald Sun journalist Mark Stevens his premiership medal after the 2011 grand final in reference to an article that had compared his finals output to his home-and-away brilliance.
Adam Treloar will enter the finals knowing his 106 ranking point average drops to 88 in finals, but safe in the knowledge he turned around last year’s finals mid-campaign.
After a strangely flat 10-possession semi-final he roared back with 23 possessions and a goal against Port Adelaide as Luke Beveridge railed at the critics, before 27 touches and three goals in the grand final.
For Gary Rohan this month brings another chance for redemption for a player whose already-modest possession rate of 9.7 per game has seen him as easy pickings for the failures of his finals teams.
Rohan’s finals returns across 16 finals games include seven possessions, six possessions and a goal, three possessions and a goal, five touches in the 2016 grand final loss, seven touches and one behind in the 2014 grand final loss and five goalless possessions in the Cats’ 2020 grand final loss.
Chris Scott was happy to back in his player on Channel 9 on Monday, and while he mounted a fierce defence Rohan would be aware of the need to redefine his finals reputation.
“It‘s a good question to ask me live on TV because I get a bit defensive of my players and I’ll wear that as a badge of honour, but I think it’s borderline silliness to highlight a player who none of you would have in the top 15 players in our team and say he’s the one under the most pressure,“ Scott said.
“I just don’t buy that there’s pressure on him. I don’t think anyone who knows footy is thinking, ‘For Geelong to win, Gary Rohan has got to dominate’.”
Rohan will know in his heart that for all of Scott’s support, like Cotchin before him the only way to change perceptions is when the ball is bounced on Saturday afternoon.
Wreck it Ralph: How Tigers, Cats can dodge list cliff
Twelve weeks ago Damien Hardwick was talking about walking away as soon as the Tigers’ last chance at a premiership with the current list was extinguished.
Last Saturday night he was already loading up for the next era of success.
“The most exciting thing about Richmond is our future,” said Hardwick.
“I am pumped with the playing list we have got and what it’s going to look like moving forward, but we have given ourselves a chance to salute this year while still contending and moving forward through a period of sustained success.”
Down the highway his rival Chris Scott was foreshadowing the club’s intent to secure a second GWS star in 24 months when he told a Cats podcast: “This might be an oversimplification but TPP (total player payment) management might be the biggest area of competitive advantage in the game.”
The 2022 finals series will start on Thursday night with Richmond and Geelong attempting to match Hawthorn with four flags in the 21st century.
But what is apparent is a Geelong side mocked as a Dad’s Army and a Richmond team derided as only truly worthy when Dustin Martin is dominant are reloading, not rebuilding.
Even if Martin disappears into retirement in coming months.
On November 1 Alastair Clarkson will officially start at North Melbourne from as close to ground zero as a team can get – 2-20 this season and a percentage of 55.8.
We have known for some time Geelong’s kids are coming with a bullet, but Hardwick’s wildly optimistic statement after the Essendon win put his club’s growth into perspective.
It truly would not have surprised at the start of the year if this was Hardwick’s final year at Richmond, if Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin slumped to indicate the dominant era was done.
Yet both Richmond and Geelong have unearthed future stars this year through left-field moves, elite development frameworks and canny drafting – with huge trade deals yet to be landed.
Geelong is in the box seat to secure Jacob Hopper if the Giants agree to a trade, with the Herald Sun Rich 100 proving Scott’s statement that a club that paid Jeremy Cameron nearly $1 million a year can still afford Hopper.
Richmond and Collingwood are both keen on 24-year-old Tim Taranto, but if Jordan De Goey remains at the Pies the Tigers would become the heavy favourites for his services.
The problem for the North Melbournes of the world is Richmond and Geelong are not only destination clubs, they have learnt the lessons of Essendon (2000) and Brisbane (2001-3).
Richmond just kept on drafting kids despite its ongoing success, last year securing a 15-year key-position back, and a very rare top 10 pick at No.9, in Josh Gibcus.
Of the next-generation, Noah Balta (pick 25) and Shai Bolton (pick 29) are generational talents, Noah Cumberland (pick 43) and Maurice Rioli (pick 51, father-son) look steals, Liam Baker is a rookie revelation, Hugo Ralphsmith (pick 46) has promise and 25-year-old premiership player Jack Graham was a pick 53.
Of the Tigers year’s five early picks in last year’s draft, Gibcus has played 17 games, midfielder Tyler Sonsie (pick 28) has averaged almost 18 disposals over the past six weeks, Tom Brown is progressing well in the VFL and half-forward Judson Clark looked at home in three AFL games.
VFL coach Steven Morris last week said of Sam Banks, a mid-sized defender taken at pick 29 last year: “He‘s tracking sensationally. He’s a very exciting player for us, and will be a very good player for years to come.”
Richmond might just not avoid a list cliff, it might follow Geelong’s path of barely registering a speed bump.
At Geelong the Cats weren’t dissuaded by their risky acquisition of ex-Saint Jack Steven, whose single year at the club yielded nine modest games and being stabbed in the chest in a May incident.
They doubled down on Tyson Stengle, and the Stephen Wells magic has delivered with Sam De Koning (pick 19 in the 2019 national draft) and Max Holmes (pick 20).
Rookie Brad Close has played 52 games in the blink of an eye as a high-pressure goal-a-game forward, and rookie pick Tom Atkins has played 79 games in four seasons and is now a bona fide inside mid.
At any other club Esava Ratugolea would have jumped ship when Jeremy Cameron arrived but the Cats believe he can play as a key defender and also have ruckman Toby Conway (pick 24) being groomed in the VFL.
Consider this contrast: Adam Kingsley is about to walk into the 16th placed team and because of salary cap issues lose Jacob Hopper, Tim Taranto, Bobby Hill, and maybe Tanner Bruhn if he can find a home in Melbourne.
Geelong finished the home-and-away ladder two games clear on top, and for cultural and geographic reasons has been able to save enough pennies to snaffle a Giants academy member taken at pick 7 who will turbo-charge the midfield for another six or seven years.
THE TEN BEST GEELONG AND RICHMOND KIDS UNDER 25
1.Shai Bolton (Richmond)
An astonishing 82 scoring shots in the home-and-away season while averaging 18 touches. Close to untackleable. In the top five players in the competition and still only 23 years of age.
2. Sam De Koning (Geelong)
Stengle was an All-Australian ahead of him, but to think De Koning has emerged as the best young key back in the competition off one 2021 AFL game is astonishing. Has not only dominated elite opponents, he has hauled in 58 intercept marks and 32 contested marks.
3. Tyson Stengle (Geelong)
The complete fall-of-the-ball small forward who doesn’t rely on perfect delivery to strut his stuff. Forty-six goals and 153 score involvements and, at 23 years of age, there is no reason he can’t play 150 more games of similar high quality for Geelong.
4. Liam Baker (Richmond)
His actual role is impossible to pin down, but his influence is immense. At only 24, the player voted the most courageous in footy this year should hit 200 AFL games as a centre square mid, pesky small forward and small defender throwing himself across packs.
5. Noah Balta (Richmond)
The club that brought you Alex Rance and Dylan Grimes has the luxury of throwing Balta forward or back and while the jaw-dropping athletic feats have been replaced by dour defence in 2022, Damien Hardwick has the luxury of knowing that he can be moved forward when Jack Riewoldt retires or locked in alongside Josh Gibcus for the next six to eight years.
6. Max Holmes (Geelong)
As Chris Scott said recently, the son of dual Olympian Lee Naylor has been pitched as an athlete-footballer, but in actual fact looks like a natural footballer with an athletics pedigree. He runs hard (of course), but makes smart football decisions.
7. Jack Henry (Geelong)
Henry has at times been played forward this year given the quality and depth of the Cats defence – and won the game against Richmond. But he hasn’t hit the heights of last year when he was runner-up to Tom Stewart in the best-and-fairest. Still an exceptional long-term prospect.
8. Josh Gibcus (Richmond)
He hasn’t had the year that De Koning can boast but this is his first season – the Cats defender is in his third – so playing 17 games as an intercept marking key back has been mighty impressive. Elite talls backs are so hard to find, and Gibcus only has upside after his strong start to his career.
9. Brandan Parfitt (Geelong)
Injuries have stifled Parfitt’s influence this year but at his best he is an excellent clearance player with a lovely soft kick to leading forwards. In the past three weeks has averaged 27 possessions, 13 contested possessions and seven clearances while getting valuable centre-bounce time.
10. Brad Close (Geelong)
Close has kicked 21 goals in 22 games this year and averaged 3.8 tackles and 5.7 score involvements, with the much-heralded Tyson Stengle stealing the limelight despite Cats fans realising how critical to this side he is.
Honourable mentions: Tyler Sonsie, Zach Guthrie, Maurice Rioli, Noah Cumberland, Esava Ratugolea, Hugo Ralphsmith.
Originally published as Wreck it Ralph: Players who can change their reputation with a big finals series
AFLW Agenda: Thank you Maddy, you’re more than enough
From a stirring celebration pointed at keyboard cowards to the rapid rise of a young gun, ELIZA REILLY runs through the hits and misses from Week 6 in the AFLW Agenda.
Trade live: The club which should spoil Cats’ Bailey Smith plans
Bailey Smith wants to get to Geelong. The Cats want Smith. But the Bulldogs don’t want pick 17 in a trade. Now, a rival has been urged to take advantage. FOLLOW LIVE
Browne to step down — but which Pies lifer will replace him?
Collingwood president Jeff Browne will depart the club at the end of the year, with the club already sounding out its replacement. Here’s who is in line to take up the big job at the Pies.
Why your trade outrage means nothing to Gold Coast
The footy world is bewildered at the Suns paying top dollar – in this case at least pick 6 – for Daniel Rioli. However, CALLUM DICK writes, the Suns’ priorities are different to most clubs.
The players that made Robbo want to do a top 57
The hardest spot to pick in the top 50 isn’t No.1. It’s actually No.50. Robbo names the players he wanted to fit into his annual list – but couldn’t.
13 years, 58 games: Who are footy’s great survivors?
Tom Campbell joined his fourth AFL club this week. TIM MICHELL looks at the AFL’s journeymen that have survived longer than a decade despite struggling to get first-team minutes.