Wreck It Ralph: Inside Collingwood’s list crunch and the big calls facing the club as it chases sustained success

A list crunch is coming at Collingwood. With the old guns firing, who could be in the gun to make way for the new breed? Jon Ralph breaks down the Pies’ present and future.

Justin Leppitsch might have the last laugh after all.

A club that was seen to be going all in for one final shot at the title instead will have vast ambitions this year.

Not just to win a second premiership in three seasons, but buck the equalisation trend.

As in turning into the type of club like Sydney and Geelong who regenerates on the run.

Leppitsch has a horrible list crunch coming at the end of the season but in the best way possible.

Instead of booting players off their list like Essendon with their vast turnover in the past three years, the Pies will only just have enough spots to retain quality players.

Leppitsch’s issue won’t be finding talent, it will be nudging players into retirement or making tough calls on first-round picks who haven’t quite made it.

Justin Leppitsch has some tough decisions to make. Picture: Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos via Getty Images

So how does Collingwood juggle the big decisions ahead on its plus 30 stars while also finding the draft points for as many as four next generation academy and father-son picks?

How does he do it while still trying frantically to retain next year’s first-round pick?

With difficulty, and yet what a position to be in given those four players could yet all fit perfectly into the club’s needs when the stars eventually do retire.

It was hard to find a commentator – this one included – who didn’t believe the expensive acquisitions of Harry Perryman and Dan Houston on six year deals of around $900,000 represented a massive risk for the Pies.

A club with so few elite players under 25 apart from Nick Daicos was surely in Last Dance mode.

Especially when the club gave up its future first-rounder, Joe Richards and John Noble as part of the deal.

What a difference left-field recruiting can make.

Ned Long isn’t just a handy type, the former Hawthorn rookie has played a huge part in revitalising this Collingwood midfield.

If the Pies did have a first-rounder this year he is exactly the type of player they would have hoped to secure.

Playing in the Matt Rowell mould, he was on the field for just 84 of 126 minutes on Anzac Day and had 22 disposals, kicked a key goal and took a couple of big marks in the wet to show he doesn’t lack anything in terms of his AFL skillset.

Ned Long has been a revelation. Picture: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

Even on a quiet clearance day (just one after 14 in the previous two weeks) he found a way to contribute.

He allowed Nick Daicos to push forward in a floating role, Josh Daicos to thrive at half back, and he teamed perfectly with Steele Sidebottom (15 clearances) on a day when Scott Pendlebury was also elite but had only three clearances.

His development at Collingwood is exactly the kind of move that will allow them to transition from the golden oldies when they do pull up stumps.

Meanwhile in the VFL, the club’s back-end picks from last year’s draft are making moves.

Forward Charlie West (pick 50) kicked another three goals for 11.2 for the season to emerge as a possible replacement for Dan McStay (medial ligament) alongside Mason Cox.

Winger William Hayes showed something the previous round against Brisbane with three goals and 14 touches, so Collingwood believes that draft is far from a wasteland.

But the top-end stars are likely to come this November.

THE FATHER-SON AND NGA OPTIONS

If Collingwood had a Nick Daicos-type about to go top four in this year’s draft it might find it nigh on impossible to match that bid without giving up every draft pick it possesses.

But while Collingwood will find it challenging to match bids, there are some factors that conspire in their favour.

Their four possible draftees this year are all very different players.

Western Jet Tom McGuane is an inside mid with a glorious sidestep that sees him effortlessly find space.

Oakleigh Charger Zach McCarthy is a 199cm key position player who at Coates League level is racking up huge possession tallies and centre square clearances as a ruckman.

Fellow Oakleigh small forward Jai Saxena is a goalsneak (nine goals in three games) with the tank to get up and down the ground and win big possession tallies.

And Dandenong Stingray Oscar Lonie is a flanker averaging 15 disposals who has played four Coates League games showing significant improvement as the son of 123-gamer Ryan Lonie.

The early consensus is that McGuane is not a top five pick given his lack of pace and explosiveness but could be in the 15-25 bracket.

McCarthy could also be a first-rounder if he continues his rate of improvement after getting out of the key position logjam he found himself in at the Chargers last year.

Collingwood might have criticised northern clubs for their academies but has gone to work honing their own backyard.

Ash Close, a 10-year Pies staffer as a football analyst and development coach, is the Oakleigh Chargers coach.

Former Demons and Pies player Lynden Dunn works on the father-son links and as of January, new appointment Steve Grace is the next generation academy manager and VFL assistant coach.

The changes to the bidding system last year effectively prevent clubs from stockpiling a heap of back-end picks which add up to the points tally they need for top 10 picks.

Clubs once secured a 20 per cent discount for matching bids, which is down to 10 per cent.

And the draft value index (DVI) which assigns a points value to every draft pick has been altered.

Jai Saxena is in Collingwood’s sights. Picture: Rob Lawson/AFL Photos

The No. 1 pick is still worth 3000 points but pick 10 is worth 1276 points compared to 1395 last year, pick 20 is worth 757 points (compared to 912), pick 30 is worth 454 points (compared to 629) and pick 40 is worth 238 points (compared to 429).

So if you have to find 2700 points to match a No. 1 overall pick (after a 10 per cent discount) you are basically cooked.

The only way to do that is to trade up to a top five pick, which is uncommonly hard.

But if McGuane and McCarthy become top 20 picks (757 points) the Pies might have to find 1500 points in total for the pair.

It’s difficult given their own second-rounder is currently at pick 36 (worth 317 points).

But it’s possible, either by securing free agency compensation if Brayden Maynard departs or trading that future first-rounder into this year.

Everyone wants top five picks, but the fact McGuane and McCarthy aren’t quite at that level actually helps the Pies.

Tom McGuane’s stock continues to rise. Picture: Ian Currie

The sheer number of academy picks this year and reality that clubs don’t always bid on rival players where they might will give rise to the possibility the pair drift further down the draft order, allowing the Pies to save some points.

Saxena and Lonie will likely be later picks but the beauty of McGuane, McCarthy and Saxena is they all fit needs.

McGuane helps replenish the midfield stocks when Sidebottom and Pendlebury retire – and his skillset blends perfectly with dashing Daicos – while McCarthy can ruck or play at either end given the Pies’ ageing key position core.

Saxena will hopefully keep improving and one day replace smalls like Jamie Elliott or Bobby Hill if he decides to move on for bigger money.

THE LIST CRUNCH

Of the 10 30-plus-year-old Pies, Tim Membrey joined the club last off-season on a two-year deal and Jack Crisp is still contracted to 2026.

But Tom Mitchell, Sidebottom, Elliott, Pendlebury, Mason Cox, Brody Mihocek, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Jeremy Howe are all uncontracted.

Ideally Collingwood would transition some of those players out at season’s end.

But it is impossible to see a world where All-Australian contender Sidebottom, Elliott, Mihocek, Howe and Pendlebury don’t play on.

The club will wait until mid-season before considering contracts for 2026 given the sheer weight of number of plus 30s.

The veterans at the Pies don’t appear to be slowing down. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Mitchell is finally back in full training after a horror run but his problem is that Long has taken his inside midfield slot so can he find form AND an identifiable clearance role?

Cox is ruck and forward back-up and while he will be needed in McStay’s absence he has three behinds in two AFL games so is far from guaranteed a new deal.

Hoskin-Elliott is only 31 and has played 87 games for the Pies in the past four years.

So after playing two of the first six games in the VFL, he will be desperate to finish the year strongly.

Pendlebury spoke after Anzac Day about being motivated by the likes of LeBron James and Manny Pacquiao, competing at the age of 40 and more.

He needs only 22 games to match Brent Harvey’s games record of 432 and will get there in a canter barring a catastrophic injury.

So if at least eight of those 30-plus Pies continue on and Collingwood does take all four youngsters, who else is at risk?

THE OUT OF CONTRACT PIES

Ash Johnson and Finn Macrae have both shown real promise at times across their Collingwood careers.

Unfortunately both are out of contract and out of luck with injury.

Macrae is out for 12-16 weeks with a shoulder injury, while Johnson is 4-6 weeks away with a fibula injury.

Macrae is a pick 19 from the 2020 national draft but like many in that thin draft, he hasn’t been able to make the grade after only 21 games in four years.

Finlay Macrae’s time at the Pies could be coming to a close. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Also out of contract are Oleg Markov (no AFL games this year), Lachie Sullivan, Oscar Steene, Wil Parker, Charlie Dean and Illiro Smit.

Steene is an emerging ruck who has shaken off a 2024 toe injury to show real signs in the VFL this year, his most recent game was an 18-possession, six-clearance, six-tackle game against Essendon.

Sullivan was the sub on Anzac Day and Parker is a 22-year old Category B rookie who debuted only five games after crossing from cricket last year.

So Collingwood would realise that while there are tough list decisions ahead, they have the luxury of having a talented and in-form list.

Johnson, Macrae and Markov might all be at risk, while Bobby Hill and Darcy Cameron are both contracted to 2026 and looking for pay rises amid some uncertainty over their futures.

Plenty of challenges lie ahead – Sidebottom and co might hit the wall.

Long might show he is a flash in the pan, although that seems unlikely.

Cameron might jump ship for a huge rival offer.

At some stage life after Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Howe and Mihocek will be a very different reality.

But a club that had to blow up its list amid a salary crunch late in Nathan Buckley’s tenure at least is positioning itself perfectly.

The Pies spent four years out of September from 2013-2017 onwards but are using every lever possible to avoid that scenario only 18 months after the 2023 premiership.

Originally published as Wreck It Ralph: Inside Collingwood’s list crunch and the big calls facing the club as it chases sustained success