AFL 2023: Why do clubs struggle to back-up after playing the Pies?

There’s no denying it – the Collingwood curse is real. And it’s one of the most remarkable statistical trends of 2023. But why? Former coach Nathan Buckley has a slightly different take.

Call it the Collingwood curse.

On Sunday against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Carlton will attempt to buck one of the most remarkable statistical trends of the season when the red-hot Blues attempt to win their match the week after playing Collingwood.

Extraordinarily, only three teams so far this season have been able to butter-up the week after they have played Collingwood and got the chocolates.

But from the 18 opportunities in total, 15 of the sides which have played Collingwood have gone down the next week.

In other words, teams who play the Pies are sitting ducks.

Carlton coach Michael Voss will have noticed the trend, and prepared the Blues for another taxing encounter against Ross Lyon’s Saints, the week after an upset win over Collingwood put the Blues back in the frame for a top-eight berth.

The Blues need to win three of their last four games to guarantee a spot in the eight from their remaining clashes against St Kilda, Melbourne, Gold Coast and GWS Giants.

The Blues shook up the AFL ladder after their win over the Pies. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

But why is it so hard to back-up after a playing the ladder-leading Magpies?

In one of the games of the season a fortnight ago in round 19, Collingwood and Port Adelaide played out a finals-intensity thriller at Adelaide Oval.

The contest is said to have physically drained both sides to the limit, with GPS numbers backing up suspicions it was one of the most taxing games of the season.

Feeling sore and potentially still fatigued, Port was belted last weekend by Adelaide in the Showdown, continuing the trend.

There is no doubt Collingwood is regarded as one of the fittest and hardest-running teams in the competition, with one of the best fourth-quarter records in the game over the past two seasons.

But former Collingwood coach and Magpies’ legend Nathan Buckley believes there might be something else to it.

Buckley said the clashes against Collingwood may provide key learning opportunities for their opponents who are forced to go away and tinker or rejig their playing style on the back of their losses to the ladder-leading Magpies.

Do the Pies force teams to rejig their game plans? (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

“Some sides stretch you. And it might be mental or emotional. It might be a real challenge for the teams Collingwood play as you always have to be really ‘on’ against the sides going really well, and there could be a comedown from that,” Buckley said.

“But the other thing is – and this might be harder to quantify – when you come up against the best team they can highlight certain deficiencies in your game which haven’t been exposed against lesser sides. If a part of your game hasn’t stood up against the best, then you can spend a bit of time working on that aspect.

“So, potentially not just for the players but the coaching group as well, it does provide a challenge if a particular part of your game has been exposed in the sense that there can be a little bit of rejigging that can happen in the aftermath.

“That can take a little bit of time for that to settle. It could only be a slight adjustment but it can take a little bit of time for that to come through.

“So that is less of the physical (load) and more about the tactical learnings that you can gain from one of the better sides and the time it takes to tinker or adjust on the back of playing a team like Collingwood.”

Originally published as AFL 2023: Why do clubs struggle to back-up after playing the Pies?