Wreck It Ralph: What will it take to land the AFL trade period’s star attractions?

The Crouch brothers have always been able to find a mountain of the footy. But one key stat reveals why Matt will struggle to find a new home if he can’t change. TRADE SPECIAL

Quiz question time.

Who is the only AFL player to have average fewer metres gained per possession than Matt Crouch?

His brother Brad, with Josh Dunkley, Jack Redden and Hugh Greenwood also in the top five.

Brad has had a strong season at St Kilda, so the stat doesn’t mean everything.

But while Matt Crouch has retained the same incredible ball-winning skills that won him the 2017 best-and-fairest, he doesn’t hurt opposition sides.

Contracted to 2023, it’s challenging to find a suitor given clubs can only really have one pure inside stoppage beast in their side.

Can Matt Crouch find a new home next year? Picture: Morgan Sette

The Roos have plenty of inside mids, Hawthorn has Tom Mitchell, St Kilda has his brother, West Coast is rebuilding, Essendon will want to play youngsters like Ben Hobbs and Archie Perkins, and the Suns have their own clearances beasts.

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It might mean he needs to see his contract out and join David King’s Leg Drivers Association breaking lines instead of going sideways with possessions

Ralphy: I’d be shocked if Rory didn’t Lobb at Whitten Oval

As Fremantle closes in on the commitment from Luke Jackson which will only kick-start the hard part – getting a trade done – it is worth recalling the stakes on offer.

In 2014 the Western Bulldogs moved heaven and earth to secure Tom Boyd on a $7 million deal in a trade that saw them hand over pick 6 and their captain. Ryan Griffen and that early selection went north, and if Boyd’s career was ultimately cut short he left as a Western Bulldogs premiership player.

His key role in that 2016 triumph makes that deal worth it seven million times over.

It is why Fremantle is pot-committed to Jackson – lowballing current players, prepared to trade quality key position targets – because the Dockers know he could get them to the promised land.

They have already seen it on grand final day, and while his season hasn’t been one of unqualified growth, his 21-possession, 10-score involvement game rucking solo against Brisbane shows this 20-year-old is capable of anything.

So as the Dockers consider how to actually nail a trade, what will it take to get so many of the active deals done across the competition in what shapes as a bumper trade period?

Rory Lobb is playing the best footy of his career. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

Rory Lobb (Fremantle)

This has clearly been Lobb’s career-best year, kicking 30 goals in 17 games while also playing 24 per cent ruck time.

With Josh Bruce 30 and battling off a knee injury, Lobb is the perfect player for the Dogs to help Jamarra Ugle-Hagan secure a favourable match-up while helping Tim English.

It would shock if he didn’t get to Whitten Oval next year.

But he’s 30 in February. The Dogs will play hard ball, but should be happy to give up pick 27 given what is believed to be a four-year deal.

The Dockers could use that pick 27 to shuffle up the draft order with their first-round pick this year or next before handing it to Melbourne in a Jackson trade.

Luke Jackson (Melbourne)

In truth Jackson’s year has just been solid, but he’s a third-year player who has a dozen years of growth ahead of him.

Playing a 50-50 ruck-forward split, the one worrying number would be his 7.9 per cent hitout-to-advantage stat, with less than one in ten of his hitouts actually finding a teammate.

The Boyd trade comparison is valid.

Fremantle would need to pony up two earlyish first-round picks, with the Demons having made clear they don’t see Rory Lobb being part of a potential trade package.

Their current first pick is 12 and they don’t have second and third-round picks.

So Melbourne will ask for the world, aware securing this year’s pick 12 and next year’s first-round pick (12-15) is only just equitable to the number of draft points they used to take Jackson with pick 3 in 2019.

In an ideal world the Demons would want two picks inside 10, but how does Fremantle acquire them?

Luke Jackson takes on potential future teammate Sean Darcy. Picture: Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Griffin Logue (Fremantle)

Logue is having some second thoughts about a move east and isn’t totally wedded to a move yet given he is now playing regular football.

But the offers will come hard for him from clubs like Sydney keen to shore up their defensive core.

Of all key defenders his one-one-one loss rate is the best (he has lost only three contests in total), ahead of Steven May, Nick Murray, Dylan Grimes and Sam Taylor.

He can play as a defensive forward on James Sicily and Steven May, can play on resting rucks, and kept Jeremy Cameron goalless as a direct match-up.

A club securing a former pick 8 at just 24 years of age should expect to give up something in the pick 14-18 range.

For comparison, the Saints gave up picks 12 and 18 (and got back pick 10) for Dougal Howard and a 31-year-old Paddy Ryder when Howard didn’t have the runs on the board that Logue does.

Tim Taranto (GWS Giants)

Rivals believe Jacob Hopper is the cleaner of the pair as they assess the academy product and inside mid Tim Taranto for trade potential.

But 24-year-old Taranto is a beast crying out to play inside midfield all season for a team like Richmond or Collingwood.

He has played a mix of midfield and half-forward in the past three years but in 2019 he averaged 104 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals and 11 contested disposals playing an 87-13 midfield forward split.

He had 26 possessions and a goal in the prelim against Collingwood and 30 in the grand final loss to Richmond.

He is a known product with a best-and-fairest in a team that made a Grand Final.

The Tigers gave up pick 6 for Gold Coast’s Dion Prestia (the clubs also swapped second-rounders).

Put it this way – if a team gives up a top-10 selection for Taranto they are unlikely to regret it down the track.

Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper are both linked for possible moves away from GWS. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

Jacob Hopper (GWS)

Canvass the football industry and the consensus is that Hopper is a little more polished than Taranto, which is why clubs will chase him first then consider their options.

Those close to Hopper have downplayed speculation he wasn’t thrilled with the treatment of twin knee surgeries that have effectively wiped out his year.

But he will be on the move if the Giants agree, with Geelong hunting him and Richmond plus Collingwood among the chasing pack.

Last year he averaged 26 touches (he was a team-high for tackles, second for clearances, third for disposals) and went at only 52 per cent by foot.

He has two top-four placings in the Kevin Sheedy Medal and the list of Victorian suitors means GWS are likely to secure a top-10 pick or its points equivalent for his services.

Josh Dunkley (Western Bulldogs)

The number crunchers at Champion Data love Dunkley and believe he should be the No.1 target of the available mids as Port Adelaide flags strong interest.

It’s been another exceptional season averaging 24.9 possessions, four clearances and a total of 16 goals and 134 score assists.

He’s never going to be Darren Jarman but he’s going at a respectable 59 per cent kicking efficiency playing a 57-43 mid-forward split.

He’s exactly the kind of player the Power needs to stiffen their midfield and throw forward as Robbie Gray hits 34 and Connor Rozee and Zak Butters play more centre square time.

The Bulldogs wanted two first-rounders for him two years ago and given he’s only 25 it’s still the right price.

Put it this way – in Ken Hinkley’s last contracted season, would he be prepared to give up two early picks for a game-changing mid?

Carlton gave up pick 6 and future third-rounder for Adam Cerra, and Dunkley has a better resume than Cerra so far.

Bobby Hill (GWS Giants)

Hill will request a trade and all signs point to him getting to Collingwood, but despite his potential the No.24 draft pick had kicked only nine goals in 11 games before being struck by testicular cancer.

He won’t play again this year and while the Giants could roll him into a potential deal on Hopper or Taranto – or even Brodie Grundy – he’s worth a mid-30s pick.

GWS gave up pick 31 for ruckman Braydon Preuss and that’s about the right price.

Essendon isn’t interested this time around, which means it might be harder to strike up a bidding war unless other suitors emerge.

Bobby Hill is set to move clubs. Picture: Russell Freeman

Dustin Martin (Richmond)

It is a huge hypothetical but just remember what Geelong gave up to secure Gary Ablett the second time around.

He was traded at 33 years of age and they still handed over pick 19 and a second-rounder for Ablett, pick 24 and fourth-rounder.

So even at 33 they got pick 19.

Gold Coast is the latest club to make clear it can’t afford Martin, who surely would stay even if he is warm to the idea of a trade because of the difficulty of executing a move.

For rival clubs it’s not the picks required or the salary – it’s both of them combined as a club gives away multiple first-rounders and has to fit $2.6 million into their cap in the next two years.

Dustin Martin is nursing a hamstring injury. Picture: David Crosling

FREE AGENCY COMPENSATION

Dan McStay (Brisbane Lions)

West Coast secured end-of-first-round compensation when Scott Lycett left on a five-year deal worth $650,000 a season, but McStay’s five-year $600,000 per season contract just falls short of that.

Will it mean the Lions secure only second-round compo and a pick in the 30s?

The Lions have told McStay they know he’s leaving and that he should just concentrate on the season, but he again went goalless on Sunday, his fifth game without a goal in six weeks.

Dan McStay is a free agent. Picture: Zak Simmonds

Karl Amon (Port Adelaide)

Port Adelaide is in the same boat with Amon’s likely compensation, aware he will be paid $650,000 for four or five years at a club that is almost certainly Hawthorn.

The Hawks should leap at Amon, who is second of all wingmen for disposals and No.1 for uncontested disposals, metres gained and scoreboard impact.

His ball use in the past five weeks after a slow start has also been at an excellent 73 per cent.

He is a clear wing upgrade from Tom Phillips (only four games this year).

So the Power will cross their fingers hoping the free agency formula from Lycett’s offer four years ago holds despite some modest gains in salaries across the board since then.

Originally published as Wreck It Ralph: What will it take to land the AFL trade period’s star attractions?