Tom Papley trade revisited: What was fallout for Blues, Swans five years on?
Had Joe Daniher’s wish to join Sydney been granted in 2019, Tom Papley would have been a Blue — LACHLAN MCKIRDY and TIM MICHELL examine what the failed trade has meant for both Carlton and the Swans.
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Carlton fans still wonder what could have been.
Citing family and personal reasons, Tom Papley requested a return to Victoria — and trade to Carlton — after four seasons and 120 goals in Sydney.
Papley had just established himself as one of the best small forwards in the game, booting 37.28 to finish ahead of established stars including Luke Breust and Liam Ryan on the AFL’s goalkicking chart.
Days of negotiations during the trade period boiled down to one major factor — Essendon’s willingness to trade Joe Daniher to the Swans.
Sydney reportedly offered a future first-round pick and Carlton’s pick No.9 for Daniher, which the Blues would have sent north as part of the deal for Papley.
But when the Daniher aspect of the three-way deal fell over, Carlton was left high and dry and the contracted Papley stayed in the Harbour City.
It was later confirmed Essendon’s desire for a Swans player to be added was the sticking point and that even picks five (which Sydney used on Dylan Stephens) and nine (which belonged to Carlton) would not have satisfied the Bombers.
Papley — and to a lesser extent Carlton — became collateral damage.
Five years on, LACHLAN MCKIRDY and TIM MICHELL delve into what the failed trade has meant for both clubs.
CARLTON
THE LIST
Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay have won the past three Coleman medals, helping transform Carlton from a perennial battler into a premiership threat.
Since the start of 2022, when Curnow returned from a knee injury that threatened his career, that pair has combined for 269 goals — or 38 per cent of Carlton’s total goals.
Finding a player to complement Curnow and McKay remains the glaring issue in Carlton’s list build.
Jack Martin has talent but is too often injured.
Corey Durdin averages less than a goal a game.
Josh Honey arrived as a rookie in 2017 but was delisted after 17 games and 10 goals.
Jesse Motlop has shown promise but is yet to feature this season due to hamstring and toe injuries.
And Orazio Fantasia has been dropped to the VFL after two goals in seven matches as a Blue.
Carlton has tried — with limited success — to plug the hole Papley would have filled for five years.
In that period, the best return from a Blues small forward has been 27 goals (Eddie Betts, 2021 and Matt Owies, 2023).
Papley averaged 34.5 goals a season from 2020-2023 and has 13 majors from nine games this year.
Papley was linked with a five-year deal worth between $600,000-$700,000 which would have put huge pressure on Carlton’s bulging salary cap.
The Blues landed Zac Williams as a free agent on big money and have since signed Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps to long-term deals.
Perhaps the biggest fallout from Papley’s arrival would have been an even greater salary squeeze when Tom De Koning came out of contract.
While the Blues were able to secure their big four, rivals including Sydney and St Kilda made significant overtures to De Koning which would have blown Carlton’s offer out of the water.
Carlton also had cap space to bring Adam Cerra back to Victoria when he asked to be traded in 2021.
Jacob Weitering is the next Blues star to come out of contract at the end of next year.
Meanwhile, the Blues are being strongly linked with a play for free agent Will Hayward in their latest effort to solve their small forward issues.
THE DRAFT
Carlton took pick nine to the draft after the Daniher deal fell over and had been strongly linked to now-Fremantle midfielder Hayden Young.
The Dockers pounced on Young and Caleb Serong before the Blues’ selection, prompting Carlton to bid on Liam Henry and Tom Green.
Then list boss Stephen Silvagni eventually split the pick, taking Brodie Kemp (pick 17) and draft bolter Sam Philp (pick 20).
Each year since then — bar 2022 — the Blues have taken a small forward in either the national, rookie or pre-season drafts.
In 2019, it was Jack Martin and Josh Honey.
The following year, Corey Durdin joined.
Then it was Jesse Moltop.
And last year, Orazio Fantasia crossed as a delisted free agent.
Would the Blues have used pick 27 in 2021 on Motlop if their pursuit of Papley had been successful?
Mitch Owens (pick 33) and Jake Soligo (pick 36) were snapped up within 10 picks of Carlton calling Motlop’s name.
THE HYPOTHETICAL
Imagine McKay, Curnow and Papley terrorising defences in navy blue.
It’s enough to send a shiver down the spine of any opposition supporter.
Blues fans certainly must have been wondering as Papley ran amok at the SCG in round 11, 2021, kicking two last-quarter goals to help Sydney clinch a 22-point victory.
The navy blue diehards can only wonder what might have been with Papley at the feet of the most-dominant forward duo of the past three seasons.
His presence might not have been enough to save David Teague’s job, but there’s no doubt Papley’s quality would have helped put the finishing touches on Carlton’s long rebuild.
The Blues certainly wouldn’t be chasing Hayward had their interest in Papley come to fruition.
Maybe this off-season will deliver the elite small forward Carlton fans have been craving since Essendon kiboshed a deal which would have dramatically shaped the future of Carlton, Sydney and the Bombers.
SYDNEY
THE LIST
Papley has continued to play a vital role in a transitioning Sydney forward line in the four seasons since his trade to Carlton fell through.
During the Covid-impacted year in 2020, Papley finished as the club’s leading goal-kicker with 26 majors. He earned that title again last year after kicking 37 goals for the season, the third time he has taken out the award at the Swans.
Since staying in Sydney, he has also had his two best returns, including 43 goals in the 2021 campaign. Overall, Papley has kicked 151 majors, or 12.5 per cent of Sydney’s goals, since 2020, the highest ratio for any Swan.
But it’s also his continued presence in the forward line that has been a major boost for the Swans. As Lance Franklin moved towards the end of his career, Papley quickly became the senior figure for the young players to look towards.
It’s something that has continued in 2024, a season that has seen Papley named as the gameday captain on multiple occasions.
“Paps is massive, whether he’s kicking goals or not,” Nick Blakey said.
“Whether he’s on the field or not, I think the way he communicates with his teammates, the love he has for his teammates, I think you see in the way he plays football and when he is up and celebrating, he gives a real energy to this team and he’s a real barometer to this team.
“He’s been crucial to that forward line. We’ve obviously got a pretty young forward line down there at the moment in the three talls. He’s massive and we love him and he’s huge for the team.”
The Swans have also been able to build their forward line around Papley’s presence, with three impressive talls who have come into their own in 2024.
Logan McDonald is the pick of the bunch and the most consistent goal-scoring threat. While Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean continue to contribute strongly both on the scoreboard and across the ground.
Isaac Heeney’s move into the midfield also hasn’t hampered the Swans’ output despite being Sydney’s second-highest goalkicker since 2020.
Hayward is one of the other most important players up forward for Longmire. He is currently their leading goalkicker this season (19) and is increasingly growing in value.
The Swans will struggle to match the lucrative offers being put to Hayward, an unfortunate byproduct of salary cap pressures caused by so many young stars.
In terms of other small forwards, Sam Wicks has emerged as an important contributor in both attack and defence. While there are big wraps on Jacob Konstanty who is yet to make his AFL debut.
Papley’s most recent contract will see him remain at the Swans until the end of 2028 with his tally set to be well in excess of 250 games for the club.
THE DRAFT
When the Swans were able to hang on to Papley, mainly because Joe Daniher remained at Essendon, it left them in a relatively stable position of being able to pick on talent.
In 2019, they selected Dylan Stephens in the first round with pick five, before taking Will Gould, Elijah Taylor and Chad Warner. Warner, the last selected at pick 39, is the only one still at the club and increasingly looks like a steal as part of their elite midfield.
But a key forward was always the goal with Franklin’s deal coming to an end. And in 2020, they pounced by adding another WA product in McDonald who has excelled in recent years.
Going into that draft, they were strongly linked with Denver Grainger-Barrass, but as McDonald slipped to pick four he was too good a selection to miss out on.
If the Papley deal had gone through with Sydney offering pick nine and a future first-rounder for Daniher, there’s a strong chance McDonald would currently be plying his trade away from Sydney.
The two Academy products in Errol Gulden and Braeden Campbell that year weren’t too bad either.
Outside of Konstanty, the Swans haven’t had to worry too much about forwards when it comes to draft night thanks to their current list. Other first-rounders have included midfield gun Angus Sheldrick and ruckman Will Green.
THE HYPOTHETICAL
Would Joe Daniher have worked in the Sydney forward line? It’s hard to tell but he’s certainly had a positive impact for the most part during his four years in Brisbane.
Since the start of 2020, Daniher has kicked 164 goals, only 13 more than Papley at Sydney.
The Swans missed finals in 2020 but have gone to make finals every year since, including the grand final in 2022.
They have also consistently been one of the top-eight attacking sides in terms of points scored with Longmire always able to find a way to hit the scoreboard.
If there was no Papley in their forward line, arguably the biggest hole would be the energy he brings. His windmill celebration has become legend for Swans fans and he single-handedly brought the SCG crowd to their feet in their win over the Suns earlier this year.
While there are a lot of showstoppers in the Sydney side, it’s hard to argue any have a bigger impact on team morale than Papley.
Attack has certainly not been the issue in recent years for the Swans, and while they’re constantly in the conversation for big-money moves for talented key forwards, it appears those years of need a marquee, goal-scoring recruit are in the past for the Bloods.
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