The Run Home: How the final two months of the AFL season could play out
Can Essendon break the drought this year? With the race for the last few spots in the top-eight wide open, the Bombers might not even get the chance. See our ladder predictor.
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All year the smart pundits have been adamant that 13 is the magic number.
Getting to 13 wins guarantees a finals spot this year but multiple teams may just fall short and fall into the eight.
There hasn’t been a run home this tight in a long time and it may get even tighter as we look over the key games and how things will shake out in the next two months.
1. COLLINGWOOD
Played: 15, Won: 13, Lost: 2, Points: 52, Percentage: 138.8
R17: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (W)
R18: Fremantle, MCG (W)
R19: Port Adelaide, AO (L)
R20: Carlton, MCG (W)
R21: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
R22: Geelong, MCG (W)
R23: Brisbane, Marvel (W)
R24: Essendon, MCG (W)
Predicted finish: 1st (20-3)
Talk about a handy run home. The Magpies get a proper test, in Adelaide against the Power, then stay in Victoria until the Spring Carnival. Craig McRae has won 17 of his last 18 games at the MCG and the Collingwood army may as well get in the online waiting room now for tickets to a home qualifying final. Good luck beating the Pies at the home of football.
2. PORT ADELAIDE
Played: 15, Won: 13, Lost: 2, Points: 52, Percentage: 118.4
R17: Gold Coast, AO (W)
R18: Carlton, Marvel (L)
R19: Collingwood, AO (W)
R20: Adelaide, AO (W)
R21: Geelong, GMHBA (W)
R22: GWS Giants, AO (W)
R23: Fremantle, Optus (W)
R24: Richmond, AO (W)
Predicted finish: 2nd (20-3)
Warren Tredrea would have spat out his cornflakes in April if you told him Ken Hinkley would win 20 of 21 games on the run to the finals. The Power look borderline untouchable at home – back-to-back Adelaide Oval games against Collingwood and Adelaide will put that to the test – and imperious on the road too. The Power have been that good, they should be favourites in Geelong in round 21. A home qualifying final beckons.
3. BRISBANE LIONS
Played: 15, Won: 11, Lost: 4, Points: 44, Percentage: 127.2
R17: West Coast, Gabba (W)
R18: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R19: Geelong, Gabba (W)
R20: Gold Coast, HBS (W)
R21: Fremantle, Optus (L)
R22: Adelaide, Gabba (W)
R23: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R24: St Kilda, Gabba (W)
Predicted finish: 3rd (16-7)
A top-two spot is still within reach for the Lions but to get there they will have to work out how to win at the MCG. A win over Collingwood in round 23 would not only stamp Brisbane as a serious flag contender but potentially snare a home qualifying final. Trips to play Melbourne and Fremantle will also be a test. Will the Lions be ruthless this week and inflict carnage on West Coast, or take a chance to rest some key bodies?
4. MELBOURNE
Played: 15, Won: 9, Lost: 6, Points: 36, Percentage: 126.9
R17: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R18: Brisbane, MCG (W)
R19: Adelaide, MCG (W)
R20: Richmond, MCG (W)
R21: North Melbourne, BA (W)
R22: Carlton, MCG (W)
R23: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
R24: Sydney, SCG (L)
Predicted finish: 4th (16-7)
There are plenty of doubters about Melbourne’s bona fides and the front half remains a mess. But the Dees have a cushy run home and a stacked slate at the MCG, while that includes danger games against Brisbane and Adelaide, both those sides have battled on the road. It’s hard to see the Demons blowing a top-four slot, with the Western Bulldogs potentially the only threat.
5. ST KILDA
Played: 15, Won: 9, Lost: 6, Points: 36, Percentage: 109.3
R17: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R18: Gold Coast, HBS (L)
R19: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)
R20: Hawthorn, Marvel (W)
R21: Carlton, Marvel (L)
R22: Richmond, Marvel (W)
R23: Geelong, Marvel (L)
R24: Brisbane, Gabba (L)
Predicted finish: 8th (12-11)
Ross Lyon’s team has only just been going in recent weeks but the Saints have a generous buffer heading into the run home. With North Melbourne and Hawthorn to come, St Kilda just has to win two other matches to cement a spot and there are enough chances to do so. But the Saints could also be locked into that percentage tussle.
6. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played: 15, Won: 9, Lost: 6, Points: 36, Percentage: 105.2
R17: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R18: Sydney, SCG (W)
R19: Essendon, Marvel (W)
R20: GWS Giants, Mars (W)
R21: Richmond, Marvel (W)
R22: Hawthorn, UTAS (W)
R23: West Coast, Marvel (W)
R24: Geelong, GMHBA (L)
Predicted finish: 5th (15-8)
After Friday night’s blockbuster against Collingwood, the Dogs have the rare luxury of not facing any of the other teams that will likely finish in the top four. That sets up Marcus Bontempelli’s boys to comfortably get the wins needed and potentially hit the finals having won six of seven games, pushing the Demons for fourth spot.
7. ADELAIDE
Played: 15, Won: 8, Lost: 7, Points: 32, Percentage: 105.2
R17: Essendon, Marvel (L)
R18: GWS Giants, AO (W)
R19: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R20: Port Adelaide, AO (L)
R21: Gold Coast, AO (W)
R22: Brisbane, Gabba (L)
R23: Sydney, AO (W)
R24: West Coast, Optus (W)
Predicted finish: 7th (12-11)
Adelaide has struggled on the road this season but that might not matter – if the Crows take care of business at home and beat West Coast they should make it. A Showdown win over fierce rivals Port Adelaide could seal up 13 wins and a definite ticket to September.
8. ESSENDON
Played: 15, Won: 8, Lost: 7, Points: 32, Percentage: 106.2
R17: Adelaide, Marvel (W)
R18: Geelong, GMHBA (L)
R19: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R20: Sydney, Marvel (W)
R21: West Coast, Marvel (W)
R22: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)
R23: GWS Giants, GS (L)
R24: Collingwood, MCG (L)
Predicted finish: 9th (12-11)
The squeeze will be on for the Bombers after Power star Dan Houston robbed them of a win on Saturday. That 55m bomb could be costly for Brad Scott. Games in Geelong, against the Bulldogs under the roof and a tough final fortnight will decide the Bombers’ fate. A back-to-back run against West Coast and North Melbourne will also be telling given we can see them missing the eight on percentage.
9. GEELONG
Played: 15, Won: 7, Lost: 7, Drawn: 1, Points: 30, Percentage: 113.5
R17: North Melbourne, GMHBA (W)
R18: Essendon, GMHBA (W)
R19: Brisbane, Gabba (L)
R20: Fremantle, GMHBA (W)
R21: Port Adelaide, GMHBA (L)
R22: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R23: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R24: Western Bulldogs, GMHBA (W)
Predicted finish: 6th (12-11-1)
The Cats were lucky to get two points against the Swans but the draw doesn’t really help given Geelong’s strong percentage. If the Cats win all their games at Kardinia Park they should get to 13 wins and September but to make it they will have to beat a heap of sides above them. It’s a tough run but if Chris Scott’s men are good enough, they will get there.
10. GWS GIANTS
Played: 15, Won: 7, Lost: 8, Points: 28, Percentage: 97.3
R17: Hawthorn, GS (W)
R18: Adelaide, AO (L)
R19: Gold Coast, MO (W)
R20: Western Bulldogs, Mars (L)
R21: Sydney, GS (W)
R22: Port Adelaide, AO (L)
R23: Essendon, GS (W)
R24: Carlton, Marvel (L)
Predicted finish: 11th (11-12)
Suddenly the Giants have won four of their last five games – an effort only bettered by Port Adelaide in that stretch – and Adam Kingsley’s men are serious contenders for the eight. Away games against Adelaide, the Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Carlton will be the key. Win two of those four and the Giants should make it.
11. FREMANTLE
Played: 15, Won: 7, Lost: 8, Points: 28, Percentage: 95.2
R17: Carlton, Optus (W)
R18: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R19: Sydney, Optus (W)
R20: Geelong, GMHBA (L)
R21: Brisbane, Optus (W)
R22: West Coast, Optus (W)
R23: Port Adelaide, Optus (L)
R24: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
Predicted finish: 10th (12-11)
The round 22 derby could be one of Fremantle’s most important games but not for the reasons you expect from a derby – the Dockers simply must claim a huge percentage leap. If other games go as we expect, the Dockers will be one of five sides to finish the season on 12 wins. But they are miles behind the other four on percentage.
12. GOLD COAST
Played: 15, Won: 7, Lost: 8, Points: 28, Percentage: 94.5
R17: Port Adelaide, AO (L)
R18: St Kilda, HBS (W)
R19: GWS Giants, MO (L)
R20: Brisbane, HBS (L)
R21: Adelaide, AO (L)
R22: Sydney, SCG (L)
R23: Carlton, HBS (W)
R24: North Melbourne, BA (W)
Predicted finish: 14th (10-13)
How can you trust Stuart Dew’s team? The Suns were ripped apart by Collingwood last week and travel to face Port Adelaide this week. Unless Gold Coast pulls off a massive upset, finals may be too far out of reach.
13. SYDNEY
Played: 15, Won: 6, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 26, Percentage: 112.7
R17: Richmond, MCG (L)
R18: Western Bulldogs, SCG (L)
R19: Fremantle, Optus (L)
R20: Essendon, Marvel (L)
R21: GWS Giants, GS (L)
R22: Gold Coast, SCG (W)
R23: Adelaide, AO (L)
R24: Melbourne, SCG (W)
Predicted finish: 15th (8-14-1)
The only team with none of the bottom three sides to come, the Swans have no easy wins on the run home. And like the Cats, a strong percentage means Thursday’s draw didn’t really help the cause. The door is still ajar for Sydney but the next five games are a gauntlet, starting with a virtual elimination final on Thursday against Richmond. Tough to see them picking up the six wins or more needed to sneak in.
14. CARLTON
Played: 15, Won: 6, Lost: 8, Draw: 1, Points: 26, Percentage: 103.4
R17: Fremantle, Optus (L)
R18: Port Adelaide, Marvel (W)
R19: West Coast, Marvel (W)
R20: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R21: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R22: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R23: Gold Coast, HBS (L)
R24: GWS Giants, Marvel (W)
Predicted finish: 12th (10-12-1)
Where was this desperation, pressure and flair from Carlton 10 weeks ago? The Blues have found some mojo but now they hit a hellacious run home. The swing games will be Fremantle in Perth and Gold Coast in Queensland. Win those and Michael Voss’ team can make it.
15. RICHMOND
Played: 15, Won: 6, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 26, Percentage: 95.6
R17: Sydney, MCG (W)
R18: West Coast, Optus (W)
R19: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
R20: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R22: St Kilda, Marvel (L)
R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)
Predicted finish: 13th (10-12-1)
The ‘Mini-momentum’ Andrew McQualter had built up deflated like a balloon against Brisbane. Now the Tigers just about have to run the table from here to make it, which looks tough with fixtures against Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Port Adelaide to come. They are just too far back.
16. HAWTHORN
Played: 15, Won: 4, Lost: 11, Points: 16, Percentage: 72.9
R17: GWS Giants, GS (L)
R18: North Melbourne, Marvel (L)
R19: Richmond, MCG (L)
R20: St Kilda, Marvel (L)
R21: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R22: Western Bulldogs, UTAS (L)
R23: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R24: Fremantle, MCG (L)
Predicted finish: 16th (4-19)
Only a few weeks ago, the Hawks were on a run, having won three out of four games. Hawthorn was uncompetitive against Gold Coast and Carlton and will be targeting a Marvel Stadium showdown with North Melbourne for a fifth win in the year.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Played: 15, Won: 2, Lost: 13, Points: 8, Percentage: 68.1
R17: Geelong, GMHBA (L)
R18: Hawthorn, Marvel (W)
R19: St Kilda, Marvel (L)
R20: West Coast, Optus (L)
R21: Melbourne, BA (L)
R22: Essendon, Marvel (L)
R23: Richmond, MCG (L)
R24: Gold Coast, BA (L)
Predicted finish: 17th (3-20)
Under Brett Ratten, North Melbourne has been competitive for patches within games but the losing streak since round 2 has now stretched to 13 games. The Roos need some reward for effort so games against Hawthorn (round 18) and West Coast (round 20) could give some hope for 2024.
18. WEST COAST
Played: 15, Won: 1, Lost: 14, Points: 4, Percentage: 49.3
R17: Brisbane, Gabba (L)
R18: Richmond, Optus (L)
R19: Carlton, Marvel (L)
R20: North Melbourne, Optus (W)
R21: Essendon, Marvel (L)
R22: Fremantle, Optus (L)
R23: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R24: Adelaide, Optus (L)
Predicted finish: 18th (2-21)
No team has ever lost 22 games in one season before in VFL/AFL history and just four have copped 21 losses in a year (North Melbourne in 1972, Melbourne in 1981, Fitzroy in 1996 and GWS in 2013). A home game against North Melbourne in round 20 could be West Coast’s sole chance to avoid creating history. Even if they beat the Roos, hard to see Adam Simpson’s men getting off the bottom.
Originally published as The Run Home: How the final two months of the AFL season could play out
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