The one stat which ladder-leading Sydey Swans are worst at in the competition
The Sydney Swans have bested every challenge in front of them in 2024. But with September looming large, there is a key area where they actually rank worst in the AFL.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
When you’re 12-1 more than halfway through an AFL season, it’s good to have some areas that you can improve on. Sometimes it can be as simple as accuracy in front of goal or finding consistency for all four quarters.
But the Sydney Swans’ area of concern, despite their incredible start to the year, is stark.
They’re currently the worst defensive team in the competition in 2024 during first quarters.
Since round eight, no side has conceded more than the Swans’ 27 points per game in the opening term. Their defence also performs considerably below par, allowing scores from 54 per cent of the inside 50s they concede.
Match that with a poorer attacking output, where they rank 13th in the AFL, and it regularly puts them on the backfoot as they attempt to keep this winning streak going.
As the ladder indicates, it hasn’t proved costly. If anything, the Swans’ slow starts galvanise them into an unstoppable force.
They are the best attacking and defensive team between quarters two and four and on average are scoring 45 more points than their opponents in that period.
On four occasions this season, they have scored at least 50 more points than their opposition in the final three terms of the match to contribute to an average winning margin in 2024 of almost six goals.
It’s a bizarre phenomenon that John Longmire is far from panicking about, but he concedes it is an important problem to address before September arrives.
“We had double the inside 50s of Adelaide in the first quarter,” Longmire said. “We just weren’t great aerially and we couldn’t stop them.
“They were able to score a bit too easily in the first quarter which was a bit similar to the week before.
“It’s good to be able to have the belief to kick into it when we get going. But early on, we started a lot better than what we played in that first half. And in regards to pressure around the ball, it’s a pretty simple game sometimes. You get that right, a lot of other things flow from it.”
Pressure is a reliable indicator of a team’s intensity throughout the match, and the Swans have certainly been one of the best at it throughout the season.
However, it’s clear that opposition teams are looking to start fast against the ladder-leaders in the hopes of causing an upset. The average pressure rating against the Swans in first quarters since round eight is 183, a mark which drops considerably throughout the other terms.
In comparison, the Swans don’t hit their peak until the third term, but are able to hold a relatively consistent level throughout the match.
They’ve also been unable to make the most of the chances they have created. Despite trailing in all but one first quarter in the past six matches, the Swans have actually won the inside 50 count in three of them.
It was most telling against Carlton and Geelong, where they trailed by nine points and 29 points despite leading the inside-50 count by six and one respectively.
“It’s always a combination of everything,” Longmire said.
“We thought we surged quite well in that first quarter, particularly in the slippery conditions. But we just got beaten in a few contests and they were able to kick goals off the back of it like the week before.
“We were able to rectify that. We reduced their inside 50 count dramatically after half time. Our pressure around the ball was fantastic, our clearance work was really strong and that led to some ground position.”
It’s clear once their defence works into games, they’re able to gain the ascendancy. Lewis Melican and Dane Rampe are covering the ground as well as they ever have, while Tom McCartin is on track for All-Australian consideration.
The 24-year-old had 15 spoils against the Crows and looks to always be one step ahead of the play. The confidence he has in his other defenders to cover their match-up gives him the freedom to float from contest to contest and act as the extra man.
That becomes a platform for the Swans to then slingshot into attack, and they’ve done that with lethal ability this season. They have three of the top four players in the competition for score involvements – Isaac Heeney (8.8), Errol Gulden (8.2) and Chad Warner (8.1).
They also have six players with 20+ goals this season, led by Joel Amartey on 31. The Western Bulldogs are the next best with just four players at that mark or better.
It’s also their ruthless efficiency to hit the scoreboard with accuracy when they want to. They scored five goals in a 10-minute stretch against Geelong, before going one better in the third term against Adelaide with six goals inside 12 minutes.
“It’s good to be able to do that, if you need to,” Longmire said.
“You want to make sure that you don’t rely upon that all the time. But it’s good to be able to do it and have the belief that you can do it when you need to.
“But we want to make sure that we are a bit more consistent over the four quarters. At certain areas at different times, we’re still confident we can keep improving, that’s what we’re trying to do.”
If they can fix the head start they’re giving opposition teams early in games, there could truly be no stopping the Sydney juggernaut in 2024.
More Coverage
Originally published as The one stat which ladder-leading Sydey Swans are worst at in the competition
The Tackle: Bevo’s Bulldogs, Lords of the Underachievers
Some Bulldogs on big money struggled mightily against the high-flying Hawks, but they weren’t alone, so where to now for the Dogs? MARK ROBINSON reviews week one of the AFL finals.
Revealed: The panel which will oversee Dees’ review after backflip
After rejecting the need for a full-scale review of the club all through 2024, Melbourne has backflipped. JAY CLARK reveals the three men who’ll conduct the sweeping review.
Macrae, Daniel … Bevo? The big off-season calls facing the Dogs
The Western Bulldogs have made finals in seven of the past 10 seasons but were smashed by Hawthorn on Friday night so where to now for Luke Beveridge? Plus the latest on a premiership pair.
NRL pull late schedule change because of AFL
The NRL has reportedly pulled a late finals scheduling switch to avoid a clash with the AFL, leaving two clubs hard done by.
Six reasons why Hokball is ‘made for September’
There’s no better show in footy than the ‘Hollywood Hawks’. And after dispatching the Bulldogs on Friday night, Hawthorn is now the third favourite for the flag. Here’s six reasons why.
AFL Rich 100: The biggest boom and bust contracts revealed
It’s all about finding value where you can, and while some clubs are doing that well, others are struggling, paying high-price for little reward. Check out the AFL’s biggest boom and bust deals.