How the numbers show that Sam Walsh’s output has dropped and why Carlton needs to fire him

Carlton was second on the ladder after 15 rounds last season and a genuine premiership contender. Then one moment started a downward spiral which the Blues remain stuck in. ED BOURKE reports.

Sam Walsh did not need a pre-season campaign when he made himself the heartbeat of Carlton’s stirring run to a preliminary final in 2023.

But after two more summers derailed by back and hamstring injuries, there is reason to ponder whether the peloton of rival club’s midfielders have reeled in the Blues star.

Carlton’s malaise began when Charlie Curnow hurt his ankle in the warm-up before the round 17 loss to GWS last year, but regaining their spearhead will not be the Blues’ silver bullet.

Even if Curnow returns against Hawthorn on Thursday night and performs strongly, the numbers show the Blues need Walsh to lift his offensive impact to keep pace with other sides.

Walsh had 14 disposals, four score involvements and a goal as Carlton controlled proceedings against Richmond in the first half on Thursday night.

In the second term, he heaved a snap off one step from the back of a stoppage for his first goal since the Blues’ 2-8 slump began.

Without a practice match under his belt, the second half was always going to be brutal on the 24-year-old, and he tailed off with his side as he failed to register a kick in the third term.

Walsh’s role was a factor in why he went missing: he played predominantly at half-forward and attended only two or three centre bounces in each quarter.

The high half-forward role is among the most physically demanding on the field, and would suit Walsh’s aerobic power if he can quickly build fitness in-season as he did in 2023.

Personnel issues could dictate that he keeps that position while the Blues grapple with a lack of leg speed behind the ball and in the middle.

Sam Walsh was one of Carlton’s best in the first half against Richmond before he faded out – and the Blues suffered an awful collapse. Picture: Dylan Burns / Getty Images

Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra and George Hewett were the preferred centre bounce trio against the Tigers, with Cooper Lord also a regular until he was subbed out late in the third term.

Sam Docherty made an irresistible case to be included against the Hawks, so Walsh remains the best suited of that mix to start forward of the ball.

If it means he can impact the scoreboard more frequently, the move could work for Michael Voss.

In the nine wins he played in last season, Walsh averaged 8.8 score involvements – almost double his output in the last 12 defeats.

Since round 5 last year, Champion Data ranks him 12th in the AFL for “ball winning”, but he slips to 129th for “ball use” – based of metrics including his kick rating and scoring impact.

He only kicked 6.4 in his excellent 2023 campaign but had 18 goal assists, second only to Curnow (19) at the Blues.

A concern for the Blues is whether the toll of four consecutive interrupted pre-seasons has caught up to the former No. 1 pick.

When he returned last year from his back issues, he was still able to accumulate heavily but looked a yard short of the pace he displayed in the 2023 campaign that ended with a Gary Ayres Medal.

The game has evolved significantly since that finals series – midfielders are running in two directions at higher intensity than ever, and still being able to draw on immense power late in games is invaluable.

With a near flawless pre-season, GWS midfielder Finn Callaghan has made himself a game-breaking weapon after struggling to burst away from stoppages last season.

Jack Ross dwelled on the fringes at Richmond last year as he battled foot issues, but rode the momentum of an uninterrupted summer to put the Blues to the sword with 34 disposals and two goals on Thursday.

Finn Callaghan has been a revelation in the first two rounds of 2025 after enjoying his first full pre-season at GWS – something Sam Walsh has missed out on for four years. Picture: Dylan Burns / Getty Images

Can Walsh still go toe to toe in a midfield battle with a Callaghan, Chad Warner or Max Holmes?

What he has in his favour is he is still one of the game’s best endurance runners – despite his second-half struggles, he still covered 15.7km against the Tigers – the equal most of any Blue.

Former Carlton fitness boss Andrew Russell was adamant after Walsh’s latest hamstring setback that he had enough pre-season training under his belt to still reap the rewards this year.

“He had an extraordinary year in 2023 … one of the reasons he finished the year so well was that he had a slower start (not playing until round 5),” Russell told SEN in January.

“He had the big training history to draw on, and he was fresher than everyone else at the end of the year.”

The Blues and Walsh will hope he clicks into gear long before then.

A win against Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs or Collingwood is needed to avoid travelling to Gather Round with a calamitous 0-4 record.

Originally published as How the numbers show that Sam Walsh’s output has dropped and why Carlton needs to fire him