The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Carlton’s current group, its future and everything in between

Carlton is top-heavy in wages with the Blues not getting much change from $3 million from McKay, Curnow and Cripps’ deals next year. But there is still some room for second tier moves.

It’s go time.

Nearly 30 years on from the 1995 premiership win, Carlton will never have a better chance to hold the cup aloft than in 2024.

It wants for nothing on any line, has assembled an array of match-winning stars that eclipses any team in the competition and enters 2024 brimming with momentum.

In the late-season charge that included 11 wins in 13 games (including two finals victories) the Blues conquered Sydney, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda, Melbourne (twice) and the Suns (twice).

With any luck the Blues will hit round 1 with Harry McKay, Zac Williams, Sam Walsh and Jack Martin fully fit after various injuries through 2023.

And they should believe the premiership can be theirs next year.

The Blues came from the clouds to reach the second-last weekend of the season. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

TRADE PERIOD OUT OF TEN

Rating: 7/10

Carlton admitted its salary cap was close to overflowing so it prioritised retention, an improved draft hand, points for 2024 father-sons Ben and Lucas Camporeale and a trade for No. 7 draft pick Elijah Hollands.

It ticked all of those boxes, even if the shock of the trade period was Hollands’ drug charge that only emerged the day after the trade period.

Carlton has done its due diligence on Hollands – and approval from the coaching group, leadership group and board – and believes he is not a rotten apple but rather a young kid who will learn from his mistake.

The Blues traded pick 17 and eventually turned it into picks 22 and 28 as part of the Zac Fisher move to the Roos, also clearing cap space.

They cleared inside mid Paddy Dow for very little but believed they owed it to him to find his preferred home.

New Blue Elijah Hollands has had a rocky start. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Carlton will back Hollands, brother Ollie, Matt Cottrell and second-year mid Jaxon Binns to fill Dow’s role and Lachie Cowan, Zac Williams and Alex Cincotta to fill Fisher’s role, with neither of Dow or Fisher playing a final last year.

The Blues 2024 national draft hand has them stocked with a trio of back-end picks, so they have accrued enough points if both Camporeale boys are taken in the top 30 of the draft.

Then came the throw at the stumps – a two-year deal for injury-prone Orazio Fantasia that has plenty of upside and not much risk.

LIST HOLES

Carlton has talent to burn on every line.

The midfield has elite match winners (Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra), outside pace (Sam Walsh, Ollie Holland), and depth (Matt Kennedy, George Hewett).

Michael Voss has a pair of complementary rucks (Marc Pittonet, Tom De Koning).

The backline has a defensive pillar (Jacob Weitering), a strong interceptor (Mitch McGovern), three more talls competing for spots (Brodie Kemp, Caleb Marchbank, Lewis Young) and a bevy of lockdown and rebounding smalls.

And the list demographic is spectacular with Ed Curnow’s retirement meaning only Nic Newman and Sam Docherty are 30 or over.

The stars are all in their sweet spot – Cripps at 28, Weitering only 26 in November, Harry McKay 26 in December, Cerra 24, Walsh 23, Charlie Curnow 27 in February.

While there are only 14 players under 24 on the list many of them have real promise – 22-year-old Kemp, 19-year-old Jesse Motlop, 19-year-old Ollie Hollands, 21-year-old Corey Durdin, 21-year-old Elijah Hollands, second-year outside runner Jaxon Binns.

Sam Docherty is one of few ageing players at Carlton. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Elijah Hollands and Fantasia will both play half forward to add experience to a group of small and medium-sized forward that hasn’t had an on-field leader since Eddie Betts and is probably the one area that needs improvement.

So to frank this spectacularly talented list Michael Voss needs to turn individual finals cameos into entire 2024 campaigns.

Tom De Koning could be a top-five ruckman in the comp if he can replicate his semi-final against Melbourne – two goals, 15 touches, 12 contested possessions, profound influence.

And Harry McKay doesn’t need to be the 58-goal hero of 2021, he only needs to play his part as he did selflessly handing goals to Sam Docherty and Charlie Curnow early in the elimination final victory over Sydney.

DRAFT STRATEGY

The Blues would love to move up from picks 22 and 28 but don’t have the draft capital so will likely take only those two picks, put Orazio Fantasia on the primary list and take one selection in the rookie draft.

The beauty of having such a balanced list is Carlton can keep adding depth without having to reach for any particular type of player.

Last year it was an elite running mid in Ollie Hollands (pick 11), a flint-hard defender in Lachie Cowan (pick 30), a quality mid in Jaxon Binns (pick 32) and a project forward in Harry Lemmey (pick 47) plus summer rookie Alex Cincotta.

With the Camporeale brothers coming in for the 2025 season as hard running mids and flankers next year, the Blues could consider taller prospects this year including 203cm key position player Archer Reid.

WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP?

Zac Williams has played only 23 games across three of his six contracted seasons because of injury, tearing his ACL in February after an excellent summer.

Carlton still has high hopes for him but there will be pressure to perform and competition for spots with Adam Saad, Sam Docherty, Nic Newman, Brodie Kemp, Alex Cincotta and Lachie Cowan all keen to play as small or mid-sized defenders.

Blues fans will be hoping to see the best of Zac Williams. Pic: Michael Klein.

PREMIERSHIP WINDOW

Dean Bailey once said the Demons would open the “bi-fold doors” to a premiership window given how wide it could be, but it is Carlton in that position.

The Blues should set themselves for a five-year window where their stars are all at the peak of their powers.

THE TOP 100

PLAYERS WHO MADE THE TOP 100 IN THE AFL PLAYER RANKINGS IN 2023 AND A 2024 BOLTER

Charlie Curnow (31st), Adam Cerra (40th), Patrick Cripps (54th), Sam Walsh (63rd), Jacob Weitering (89th), Adam Saad (91st).

Harry McKay was the 353rd ranked player this year as he battled injury and form.

As above, he only needs to play his role. But he has pledged to put in place an off-season goalkicking routine overhaul that should get him back into the top 100.

TRADE TARGETS FOR 2024

Something would have to go badly wrong for the Blues to need to splash the cash on a big-name free agent and their picks will be taken up by the Camporeale boys.

The Blues can again consider low-cost big-upside plays like Orazio Fantasia, set to join them this week as a delisted free agent.

The Camporeale boys are in Carlton’s sights. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

SALARY CAP SPACE

Mid-season the Blues looked to have cap space to spare but was surprised when both Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni stayed, with David Cuningham, Lachie Fogarty and Caleb Marchbank all winning new deals.

So the Blues are again fairly tight in the cap but will have some space for the kind of targeted acquisitions that brought in Acres last year and Hollands this year.

Carlton admits it is top-heavy in wages with the Blues not getting much change from $3 million from McKay, Curnow and Cripps’ deals next year.

Walsh, Williams and Weitering are among those on $800,000 a season but the Blues will go to the draft this year and next so while they are in retention mode they have their cap issues in hand.

Mitch McGovern’s $800,000K a year deal finished last year while Jack Martin’s lucrative five-year deal of $600,000 a season was front-ended and expires at the end of 2024.

Does Lewis Young have a future at the Blues? Picture: Michael Klein

TRADE BAIT

Give full back Lewis Young all the credit in the world for realising he had to work on his weaknesses rather than asking for a trade when pushed into the VFL.

But if he can’t find a spot in the back six he is too good to continue playing VFL in 2025 despite a three-year deal to 2026.

Carlton believes Marc Pittonet and De Koning work perfectly in unison – Pittonet bashing up his opponent then De Koning jumping over the top of them.

So it would take De Koning going to another level for Pittonet to be pushed out of the side, which would spark trade inquiries.

Originally published as The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Carlton’s current group, its future and everything in between