The List Manager: Jon Ralph examines Geelong’s list and possible 2025 trade targets

Perpetually in the premiership window, Geelong is poised to contend again in 2025. And, as JON RALPH reports, savvy list management will have rivals on edge about another big-name raid.

Geelong AFL list manager series

For all of Geelong’s towering achievements this century, the list of bad beats is equally long.

Dustin Martin took away the 2020 Grand Final as a one-man wrecking crew and combined with Tom Lynch to drag back the 2019 preliminary final when the Cats led by 21 points at half time.

Add another chapter to that book of painful finals losses with the 2024 preliminary final.

Geelong was 25 points up against the Brisbane Lions two minutes into the third quarter, with Oscar McInerney’s shoulder hanging loose.

History would show Sydney was a week from another choke on Grand Final day.

And yet Geelong just couldn’t get it done. As the brilliant Max Holmes was laid low with a hamstring strain, Joe Daniher sparked Brisbane from the ruck, roaring back into the game.

The Lions kicked seven of the next goals, took Geelong’s best punch as Ollie Henry won back the lead with two quick majors, then steadied to win.

Such is life in the high-stakes game of finals football, where Geelong’s 13 preliminary finals appearances in 18 years has seen four flags and yet a fair slice of heartbreak.

Brisbane stunned Geelong with a second-half preliminary final comeback. Picture: Michael Klein

As usual, Geelong skipper Patrick Dangerfield was leading from the front in the midfield.

And yet what will ease the pain to some degree were the band of kids dispelling the Dad’s Army narrative that has closely followed Geelong.

There was Rising Star winner Ollie Dempsey, defensive revelation Lawson Humphries, Henry (four goals), key forward Shannon Neale and the likes of Zach Guthrie, Shaun Mannagh and Oisin Mullin.

Sam De Koning couldn’t even make the side, while Jack Bowes and Tanner Bruhn were quiet on the night, but had their own big moments in the year.

With ruckman Toby Conway also in the wings and Bailey Smith as the new ready-made midfielder, it means Geelong will move on from that defeat aware it wasn’t a finals fling.

Yes, Geelong is doing what it does best, even if Chris Scott’s good mate Ross Lyon has borrowed the title.

The Cats do the dual narrative better than anyone else – competing for the flag, while also bringing in a pipeline of talent that means it never has to rebuild.

TRADE PERIOD RATING: 8/10

Gold Coast gave up picks 6 and 23 for 27-year-old Daniel Rioli. Fremantle gave up 10, 11 and 18 for Shai Bolton and pick 14. So only handing over pick 17 and 38 for Smith and pick 45 is particularly good business for the Cats.

One day we might officially find out exactly when Smith decided to move to Geelong, but it would surprise if it wasn’t a full 15 months ago.

He gives the versatility to allow Dangerfield to ease forward, to allow Holmes to still play some halfback, to push onto the wing when others are hot in the centre square.

The Cats snapped up Bailey Smith during the trade period.

In his last completed season, Smith was out-of-sorts, but still averaged 23.5 touches, 3.6 clearances, 3.5 tackles, even if he kicked at only 52 per cent. He knows he has much more to give than that, but he only turns 24 in December so he has plenty of time to pay back Geelong for its faith. The Cats also added Jack Martin on a two-year deal and while it's a Hail Mary from a durability standpoint, it’s low-risk and all upside.

LIST HOLES

What a perfect slice of succession planning for Geelong to blood Neale and develop him into the player who kept Tom Hawkins out of the 2024 finals. Neale is big and strong, but as well as taking a contested mark, he gets up the ground with elite running power.

So while Hawkins and the enigmatic Gary Rohan are gone, Neale will play alongside Henry and Jeremy Cameron with smalls Gryan Miers, Tyson Stengle, and Brad Close running around at their feet.

You can play three talls when Neale and Cameron get on their bike as they do with ex-Giants star Cameron able to play wherever he pleases on the field.

How's the athleticism of big man Shannon Neale!#AFLCatsNorthpic.twitter.com/HfqOOZmSF9

— AFL (@AFL) April 14, 2024

The fact De Koning couldn’t get into this team despite having built VFL form after injury tells you everything about the defence.

Jack Henry got back to his pre-injury best, Mark Blicavs and Jake Kolodjashnij kept on keeping on, Zach Guthrie finished second in the best-and-fairest, Tom Stewart worked through his defensive funk, and Humphries kicks the ball like a dream.

With Holmes at times streaming off halfback it was balanced and beautiful, with the Cats ranking 11th in points against but in the top-four for opposition scores per inside 50m.

Zach Guthrie was one of Geelong’s big improvers. Picture: Michael Klein

Sam De Koning was unable to break back into Geelong’s finals side. Picture: Michael Klein

The midfield ranked only 13th for contested ball differential, but Geelong’s ball movement allowed it to rank third for points from defensive half.

In utopia, Dangerfield would play the next 100 games alongside Holmes, but instead the former athletics star will have to succeed him.

It does shape as a big pre-season for the club’s rare No. 8 draft pick Jhye Clark, who played 14 games but averaged only 12 possessions and two clearances.

Yet who would bet against Smith turning into a midfield force alongside Holmes and Cam Guthrie as Bruhn, Bowes and Tom Atkins do just enough to keep the Cats in contention.

What a time for Lawson Humphries to kicks his first AFL goal!@Coles | #AFLCatsCrowspic.twitter.com/EytskwiokW

— AFL (@AFL) August 3, 2024

DRAFT STRATEGY

Just give Stephen Wells enough picks to make a difference.

Last year the value picks after key back Connor O’Sullivan were Mannagh at pick 36 and Humphries at 63. Two years before it was Dempsey as pick 13 in the rookie draft.

Those picks haven’t all been smash hits but he has a better strike rate than many.

The Cats have four selections – 45, 57, 74 and 84 – with the latter two likely to come in, but Geelong would like to get back into the draft earlier.

Shaun Mannagh is a big game player.

27 touches and six goals in last year's @VFL Grand Final, now 12 and two in just over a half of his first AFL final 🌟#AFLFinals#AFLPowerCatspic.twitter.com/RSYReqGJgK

— AFL (@AFL) September 5, 2024

They have been linked to ruckmen, including former basketballer Alex Dodson and Richmond’s VFL utility Sam Davidson, who won the medal award to that competition’s best young player.

Conway is hugely rated as a developing ruckman, but after only six games and lingering injury concerns the Cats would not yet be certain he is the durable, reliable ruck who will churn out 200 games for the club despite his Brad Ottens-like talent.

The club did try to turn De Koning into a full-time ruck mid-year so taking another developing ruckmen is a canny play, but not absolutely required.

The Cats are interested in South Australian ruckman Alex Dodson.

AFL PLAYER RATINGS

In 2024, Holmes rated 27th and Dangerfield 28th, with Cameron 53rd. Stengle was 66th and Miers 81st. Holmes can be top-10 in the league next year.

Max Holmes sets sail from long range ⛵#AFLCatsNorthpic.twitter.com/xeN34N2kTs

— AFL (@AFL) April 14, 2024

PREMIERSHIP WINDOW

If the Cats go deep into September they will have 11 players who turn 30 next year, including Atkins and Kolodjashnij, who will play most of the year as 29 year olds.

But Hawkins and Rohan are gone, the reliance on Mitch Duncan is lessened, Cam Guthrie played only four games last year and Jed Bews only got back into the side in round 20.

So the Cats are weaning themselves off the golden oldies and while Dangerfield’s eventual departure will leave a huge hole, history says they are always in the window.

SALARY CAP ROOM

Geelong signed Holmes on a solid but not ridiculous deal for four years, paid up to keep Stengle and would be paying Smith at least $800,000 a season. But the club’s strict pay bands over recent years means it has always had cap space.

Cameron is coming into the last year of a million-bucks-a-season deal, but shouldn’t get too much of a reduction in his next deal.

Hawkins retires, but had selflessly accepted less for many years in the back end of his career.

So if the mood strikes, the Cats will clearly have cap space to go after another big fish.

Matt Rowell is a player who could be of interest to Geelong.

A rising star like Finn Callaghan would also suit. Picture: Mark Stewart

TRADE TARGETS 2025

You can bet the Cats would be sniffing around players out of contract in 2025 and asking the question of mids including Matt Rowell and Finn Callaghan.

But the club has already showed its hand in meeting with Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver over the trade period and throwing some of Dangerfield’s spare berley in the water.

If all goes well, Oliver thrives in 2025 and stays at the Demons. But having made clear its interest, Geelong could follow the format it used with Smith – push hard one trade period then strike the next. They would be crazy not to be asking about Christian Petracca as well even if he seemed keener to stay in Melbourne when he considered leaving the Demons.

TRADE BAIT

Geelong will do everything in its power to sign De Koning, despite his frustration at missing the preliminary final team. He never considered leaving the club across the trade period, but it will be interesting to see how Chris Scott uses him, having trialled him in the ruck after he was a centrepiece of the premiership defence in 2022. Scott is canny enough to smother him with positives across summer then settle him down early in the year amid contract talks.

Originally published as The List Manager: Jon Ralph examines Geelong’s list and possible 2025 trade targets