How Sydney’s growing love affair with AFL has helped make the Swans premiership favourites

Record crowds. Record membership. And a home record which is the envy of the AFL. LACHLAN MCKIRDY lifts the lid on how the AFL’s growth in New South Wales has propelled Sydney to flag favouritism.

The Swans have turned it on at home in 2024 with clinical efficiency. Picture: Phil Hillyard

It’s no secret that the Swans have been next-to-unbeatable in 2024. 

Outside of their shock loss to Richmond, they have comprehensively dismantled every opponent that has come before them with a sense of ruthless efficiency.

Their average winning margin this season is 37 points and they are yet to win a game by a margin of under two goals.

They’ve also won at seven different venues this year and haven’t shown any signs of slowing down.

However, it’s their form at the SCG that has been the catalyst for much of their best work.

The Swans lost four games and drew another at home last year.

In many of those matches, they went into the final term in the lead before the result slipped away.

It was a clear concern for John Longmire who grew repeatedly frustrated by his team’s inability to hold onto third-quarter leads, even with an extensive injury list.

They have turned that trend around 12 months later with their Moore Park Fortress proving one of the toughest away trips in the competition.

The SCG has proven impenetrable so far in 2024 for the Swans. Picture: Phil Hillyard

At its core, their record levels of crowd support have undeniably played a role. The Swans are averaging just shy of 40,000 fans for their home matches and have had two of their top five home and away crowds of all time in 2024.

“We’ve been really appreciative of the crowds we’ve got at the SCG, they’ve been huge and extremely vocal,” Longmire said.

“The vibe that our crowds are bringing are enormous and we hope there’s another big one there on Saturday afternoon. That’s been a real bonus for us.”

But it’s also the way the Swans have adapted their game style to suit their home conditions that has turned into a big advantage.

The SCG has long been recognised as one of the smaller grounds in the competition. It’s current length of 155 metres is the smallest in the AFL, but only fractionally behind the Gabba (156m) and MCG (160m).

By width, the SCG sits at 136 metres, making it wider than many grounds including Marvel Stadium (129m) and Adelaide Oval (123m). That means finding space on the wing has often been a priority for Sydney teams of old.

Sydney haven’t been afraid to put a big score on their opponents at home, averaging nearly 110 points per game. Picture: Phil Hillyard

Yet this year, the Swans have matched their width with the ability to capitalise on the territory battle and force turnovers in dangerous positions. It’s had a positive impact on their scoring, averaging nine points a game more at home than they are on the road. It’s also the same difference in points from turnovers.

Around the contest they’ve been able to dominate. Their contested possessions go up, their clearance differential nearly doubles, and importantly, they demolish their opposition when it comes to inside 50s.

The main reason for that is they are able to compress the ball movement and keep the ball in their forward half. On average, they spend five more minutes a game in their forward half at home than they do in other venues.

Naturally, a lot of this superiority can be put down to just how good the Swans are this year. But with six wins in six matches at the SCG, Sydney could be on track for their first-ever undefeated season at home since relocating from South Melbourne.

Longmire confirmed that they don’t train to play any differently at the ground, but they do adapt their fundamental structures in order to use the length to their advantage.

“We have an underlying system we like to play in all phases of the game, offence, defence, contest, those things we have a system,” Longmire said.

“But you make subtle adjustments according to whether you’re at the MCG or the SCG, you make them as you go but it doesn’t really underpin your game. It’s not the absolute foundations of the game.

“It’s just a bit of stuff that you add on top. But we’ll be striving to get our pressure right, striving to get our defence right. Those things are really important to us.”

While the dimensions of the SCG don’t make a big difference, it does allow a player like Brodie Grundy to hone in on his advantage around the contests. Picture: Phil Hillyard

One of the Swans’ biggest weapons has been ruckman Brodie Grundy who has recaptured his All-Australian form and unlocked the potential of their superstar midfield. When he made the move, there was a suggestion the SCG dimensions would suit his style of play and the numbers back that up.

It’s his contested work that goes through the roof at home as he plays almost as a fourth midfielder around the stoppages. His work rate to get around the ground has always been a strength, but the SCG allows his output to go to another level.

There are some things for Longmire to work on considering his high standards. The venue has also proven easier for other teams to attack this year, with Sydney’s defence leaking 6.5 points more per game at home and conceding 6.5 points more from turnovers.

However, with big home matches to come against top-eight rivals Fremantle, Western Bulldogs and Collingwood, an unblemished record at the SCG will go a long way to locking up top spot and their best chance of a clear run through to the grand final in Melbourne.

Originally published as How Sydney’s growing love affair with AFL has helped make the Swans premiership favourites