Mark Robinson names the players at every club who fill define the 2024 AFL finals series

The Cats midfield looks like being exposed by Port Adelaide — but they still have an important card to play, writes Mark Robinson. Robbo previews who whill shape the finals series.

GEELONG, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 24: Max Holmes of the Cats reacts during the round 24 AFL match between Geelong Cats and West Coast Eagles at GMHBA Stadium, on August 24, 2024, in Geelong, Australia. (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)

In a season that has swamped all conventional thinking and created a mass of premiership contenders, one truism still stands true.

That is, it’s not the team’s five bottom-ranked players who will decide the result, rather the top-five players in every team.

In other words, the money men.

For all those players who demand a six, seven and eight-year contracts worth upwards of $1.4 million a year, September is their month of reckoning.

“Absolutely it is,” three-time Brisbane Lions premiership champ Jonathan Brown said.

“The role-players get celebrated because they support the stars to do the job, but ultimately it’s usually the stars that stand up in big moments. And it’s why they get paid the big bucks because otherwise you’d pay the role-players the big bucks.’’

The Fox Footy analyst listed Jordan de Goey, Scott Pendlebury and Nick Daicos at Collingwood last year, Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield in ’22, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Max Gawn in ‘21 and Dustin Martin in every final over five finals’ series, as the money men.

“I was lucky, we had a lot of A-graders – Michael Voss stepping up in big moments, Nigel Lappin, Simon Black,” Brown said.

“The basic argument I can make is if your bottom-six ranked players are in your best eight or 10 players on Grand Final day, you’re not going to win, it’s as simple as that.

“I understand the importance of the role-players, but it’s the best players who separate games on the biggest stage – history tell us that.’’

This season has had it all: Deserted form, crazy momentum swings and inspiring self-discovery, which left with us seven serious contenders and a Carlton team juggling sporadic form and injured and underdone players.

If the Blues win the premiership, it would be a famous one. Not 1970 famous, but to win four games from their eighth finish would be legendary.

What about the Hawks and “Hok Ball”, which has defined Sam Mitchell’s coaching? They can win it from seventh, and so can the Bulldogs from sixth. Or is it the year for Ken Hinkley and Port Adelaide, finally? Questions hang tantalisingly.

Team profiles will be fiercely examined. Contested-ball numbers, post-clearance numbers, forward-50m stoppage numbers. There will be numbers overload and they do tell a story, but they are not the story.

Because numbers tell us what’s happened, not what’s about to happen.

That’s the beauty of football – the expected versus the unknown.

The following is my ranking of the best and most important five players at each club.

Robbo’s take on the Swans’ finals hopes.

SYDNEY

ROBBO’S KEY FIVE

1. Isaac Heeney

2. Errol Gulden

3. Chad Warner

4. Nick Blakey

5. Brodie Grundy

X-MAN: Luke Parker

ERROL GULDEN 😲

An unreal goal from the boundary!#AFLFreoSwanspic.twitter.com/rYqzaEfoK5

— AFL (@AFL) July 16, 2022

More firsts than you can poke a stick at – scoring, points from turnovers, points per inside. Absolutely, if the Swans get rolling they are potent, and they get going a lot.

Health is wealth and the Swans also enter September with just about a full squad at selection. Grundy is not their fifth best player, but he’s important, and those wondering if Luke Parker would get a game and now wondering where Parker will play – midfield or forward? He’s an X-man as much as Tom Papley. A damned successful coach, John Longmire has lost three of four grand finals, and failure to make the Grand Final this year would be gutting.

The Giants are a big worry. The Swans have beaten them in five of their past six encounters, but have lost their last three finals match-ups. Whether it’s real or not, the Giants will believe the Swans crumble in finals.

This finals series could determine Ken Hinkley’s Port future.

PORT ADELAIDE

ROBBO’S KEY FIVE

1. Zak Butters

2. Jason Horne-Francis

3. Connor Rozee

4. Aliir Aliir

5. Ollie Wines

X-MAN: Mitch Georgiades

Horne-Francis didn't stop running and got the reward.#AFLFreoPowerpic.twitter.com/T2C3fIQHTC

— AFL (@AFL) August 25, 2024

Best-case scenario is Port’s midfield, led by the Terrific Trio (plus Ollie Wines and Willem Drew), continue to impose its clearance prowess, and with luck and marking forwards, the Power marches into the preliminary final.

The worst-case scenario is Port loses this week and next week, and back-to-back “bang bangs” means discussion will centre on Hinkley’s future. Hinkley is a good coach, but he needs a Grand Final.

There’s a few issues. No Kane Farrell and Dan Houston derails confidence at halfback and can Aliir Aliir go with Jeremy Cameron? Not sure about that, although Port’s defensive profile is the best in the league over the past six games. That’s probably snuck up on most pundits.

What have you got Mitch Georgiades? He’s kicked 17 goals in his past five outings and is now Port’s main guy in attack. Reckon he’s more than capable of having a big say.

Is Geelong a great team? Robbo still has his doubts.

GEELONG

ROBBO’S KEY FIVE

1. Patrick Dangerfield

2. Jeremy Cameron

3. Tom Stewart

4. Max Holmes

5. Zach Guthrie

X-MAN: The small forwards

The Dart's doing what he does best 🤩

🗳️ Vote Jez for GOTY | https://t.co/une0pcG6ikpic.twitter.com/yResQNxu3m

— Geelong Cats (@GeelongCats) March 20, 2024

There’s been a lot of reorganising to get to this point and to be frank, this Geelong line-up did a masterful job to finish third. It’s a good team, but we’re holding on whether it’s a great team. It says plenty about the coaching and plenty about the team’s ability to be in every game. Their conga line of small and high forwards – Gryan Miers, Brad Close, Tyson Stengle, Ollie Dempsey and Shaun Mannagh – could terrorise, starting with the reshaped Port’s defence on Thursday night.

I worry if Jeremy Cameron is subdued and Dangerfield is off kilter, but at the same time, Stewart’s new role makes the midfield much better. Max Holmes, off halfback or in the middle, looms as a trump card, and Zac Guthrie just might be their most important defender. He’s a great story.

A Cats flag would be Chris Scott’s third and with this team, his crowning moment.

Robbo loves the ‘honesty’ you get from the Giants.

GWS GIANTS

ROBBO’S KEY FIVE

1. Jesse Hogan

2. Lachie Whitfield

3. Brent Daniels

4. Sam Taylor

5. Tom Green

X-MAN: Toby Greene

Toby Greene keeps the Giants alive with a rocket from 50! 🚀#AFLDogsGiantspic.twitter.com/WB4xINEXSD

— AFL (@AFL) August 25, 2024

Sorry, but Toby Greene’s season doesn’t permit a top-five ranking, but you’d be foolish to think the skipper won’t be a September contributor. He just has to be.

You’ve gotta love the Giants because they are an honest team. Honest in that they fight for every scrap. They are the No. 1-ranked team for pressure and for pressure differential, and that can get in opposition heads.

It feels like it’s Jesse Hogan or bust up forward, but even the smartest coaching minds haven’t been able to curtail him in the second half of the season. What has the boy Cadman got?

The tsunami lives, but it’s not as furious as last year, but if Daniels can influence like he has in recent outings, and Whitfield and Ash get the ball, and the lad with the lid, Darcy Jones, can pop up, the tsunami is a threat.

The once-dubbed “best defensive group” in the competition needs to honour its reputation.

Robbo says an elimination final loss would be “devastating” for the Lions.

BRISBANE LIONS

ROBBO’S KEY FIVE

1. Lachie Neale

2. Joe Daniher

3. Harris Andrews

4. Dayne Zorko

5. Josh Dunkley

X-MAN: Cam Rayner

So, this is it. If it’s a win, they threaten for the flag and if it’s a loss, they are bounced in an elimination final, which would be devastating for a team that’s stacked with talent, despite their bunch of season-ending injuries. They can’t lose to an underdone Carlton, surely, although this season has had its share of upsets.

The midfield is deep, talented and mature and better than last year with Fletcher and Ashcroft, while other lad, Lohmann, is producing more than Charlie Cameron. It has to be Cam Rayner’s time.

The Lions have a weapon in Josh Dunkley. He gets the opposition's’s best mid and this week it will be Patrick Cripps. If he wins that, the Lions win the game. If the Lions lose, they will at least make history: They will be the best team to finish seventh in the AFL era.

Robbo is bullish about the Dogs’ chances of progressing deep into finals.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

ROBBO’S KEY FIVE

1. Marcus Bontempelli

2. Adam Treloar

3. Aaron Naughton

4. Bailey Dale

5. Ed Richards

X-MAN: Sam Darcy

Big time goal.

pic.twitter.com/b4NzeURpTg

— Western Bulldogs (@westernbulldogs) July 20, 2024

Luke Beveridge is a dreamer. He told his players to dream big after they defeated the Giants in Ballarat because he’s confident their game is in good order.

Their turnover numbers, for and against, are the best in the league and Rory Lobb has stiffened the defence, which is a sentence you never thought you’d read.

The point of difference in their three tall forwards – Naughton, Ugle-Hagan and Darcy – and English gets forward and annoys the opposition as well. Let’s hope it’s a dry September, although Livinia Nixon has warned of rain on Friday.

And the midfield is A-grade: English, Bont, Libba, Richards and Treloar.

It’s a big ask to run the table from sixth, but Beveridge knows it’s possible. If the 2016 mob can do it from an elimination final, why can’t this team, which has more talent?

The Hawks have stormed into finals after a 0-5 start to the season.

HAWTHORN

ROBBO’S KEY FIVE

1. James Sicily

2. Jai Newcombe

3. Dylan Moore

4. James Worpel

5. Lloyd Meek

X-MEN: the small forwards

“Hok Ball” is real. It’s sassy, it’s cool, it’s enthralling football. And we love it.

It’s virtually impossible to select their five best and most important players because Weddle, D’Ambrosio, Chol, Impey, Amon and Scrimshaw have claims. Fancy saying that about Chol, but he’s been enormous.

Their transition game is No. 1 in the comp for many different reasons, mainly because when they win the ball it’s like the green light is switched on and the ground spreads like it’s a game of kiss chasey.

Newcombe is elite at clearance – up with the best in the comp – and Worpel and Nash are his sidekicks. There’s no issues in the middle, nor up forward, where the “Hok ballers” – Moore, Watson, Ginnivan, Macdonald and Breust – really torment.

If the Lions lose and are labelled the best team to finish seventh, the loser of the Hawks-Dogs will be the best team ever to finish eighth. And by some way.

Carlton will take an underdone squad of stars north in week one of finals.

CARLTON

ROBBO’S KEY FIVE

1. Patrick Cripps

2. Jacob Weitering

3. Charlie Curnow

4. Harry McKay

5. Sam Walsh

X-MAN: Tom De Koning (if he plays)

MCKAY SET SHOT GOAL CARLTON IN FRONT #AFLLionsBluespic.twitter.com/H67ESpIsjc

— 7AFL (@7AFL) March 8, 2024

No club has a more sizeable gulf between their top and bottom ends and it’s why the Blues – underdogs and in some cases underdone – will need to produce something extreme if they are to win the flag. It’s possible, but they won’t. Not from eighth. It’s why they are $34 at the TAB.

The positive is coach Michael Voss mustered a combative attitude in the final two games of the season and this week will try to harness that energy with an influx of topliners.

Let’s hope the returnees have the same fight-until-you-drop mindset.

All eyes will be on Charlie Curnow. Three poor finals matches last year – he gathered a collective three goals and 15 marks – cannot be followed with another so-so performance this year. He’s too good a player to carry the mantle of September flop. And if Charlie and Harry are cut down, not sure Durdin, the Hollands’, Owies and Motlop can do enough on the deck.

The Blues might win on Saturday, and they are not afraid of the Gabba, but four wins from eighth spot is a bridge too far.

Originally published as Mark Robinson names the players at every club who fill define the 2024 AFL finals series