‘Never been harder’: Why odds are against Collingwood’s back-to-back premiership dream
The 21st century has four dynasties, but as SCOTT GULLAN writes, they’re the exception and not the rule. Will the Pies join them? They’ll have to defy history.
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“I don’t think you will see it again.”
Those eight words aren’t what Collingwood fans want to hear but it sums up the general consensus about winning back-to-back premierships among a straw poll of rival club coaches and officials.
Given the AFL isn’t ready for such US-style provocative statements, going on the record with such an opinion is still considered taboo.
The declaration isn’t a sledge of the Magpies but more about emphasising how hard it is to win a flag in the modern era.
Back-to-back premierships have only happened three times this century and as one official said this week, you have to be a “freak” team to do it.
“There are two things about winning the premiership, you have to be five goals better to come from interstate,” he said. “And you are not going to win back-to-back unless you are a freak team.”
The Brisbane Lions played in four grand finals and won three-in-a-row in the early 2000s, Hawthorn won four flags (including three in 2013-15) and Richmond won three flags including back-to-back in 2019-20 although it can be argued there is an asterisk there because of the Covid season.
Geelong was a “freak” team and the Cats couldn’t do it, winning three flags across five years.
With soft cap restrictions and free agency advancements, it’s getting harder and harder for a club to compile a dominant group, keep them together and remain at the pointy end.
Steve Hocking is well placed to offer an opinion given the Geelong CEO watched his team destroy Sydney in the 2022 grand final by 81 points and then 11 months later not even make it to September.
“It has never been harder, the comp,” Hocking says. “They (premierships) are hard to win, there is a lot of time and energy which gets put into it.
“Off the back of that, once you climb that mountain very quickly you have to front up again. It’s not as easy comp from that side of things and I don’t think people necessarily acknowledge that aspect of how hard they are to win.”
The Cats lost their opening three games last year before they went on a five-game winning streak. But by halfway there were warning signs all over the place at Kardinia Park.
Injuries started to bite and it’s during the winter grind when the spotlight turns to the mental side which many say is the hardest part in the back-to-back equation.
The Cats were just a bit off and once you are behind the Eight ball, it’s so hard to make up ground no matter how good of a team you were 12 months earlier.
“People will always say their hunger is as good as it has ever been but I can’t believe that,” one former coach declared. “It’s like going to a lolly shop, making yourself sick on lollies and thinking you are going to go back in and eat them again.
“Also don’t underestimate the buzz of beating the reigning premier, everyone gets up for it. That is real, everyone wants to beat you and obviously you get older.
“They (Geelong) were already old and Collingwood were the oldest last year so the last two premiers have been the oldest lists in the comp.”
While teams who finish outside the final eight get to start pre-season training around a month ahead of the reigning premiers, the advantage isn’t so much physical in terms of extra training but more about the defending champion’s ability to rejuvenate mentally and physically.
“It’s all about the rest,” one club official said. “It is not so much the headstart in the pre-season. When you win the flag you play until October whereas a team that misses the eight will finish on say August 23 or 24.
“It’s not about the training you miss out on because people say you carry it over, but it’s the mental fatigue. You have to rest.”
And then there is also how you handle the ultimate success.
The Western Bulldogs clearly enjoyed their historic drought-breaking premiership in 2016 too much while it’s becoming clearer that Melbourne did the same after its 2021 triumph.
For Geelong it was almost a collective exhale for the likes of captain Patrick Dangerfield and superstar forward Jeremy Cameron who would have started to wonder if they’d missed their chance to win a flag.
Fatigue has been replaced with excitement for Hocking this year who has a new toy to play with after the completion of the final piece of GMHBA Stadium – it was originally scheduled to be finished in May last year – gives him a state-of-the-art 40,000 seat facility.
“It’s a game-changer,” Hocking says. “It’s the crowning piece in terms of completion of the stadium and there is an excitement around the place off the back of it.
“Once you have come out of the other side of it (last year’s disappointment), the group has been incredible for a long period of time being able to do this and that’s identifying where the opportunities are to get better.
“There were 42 of 45 available for the match simulation last week, that is what you look at and they’ve used the longer pre-season exceptionally well.
“But it doesn’t guarantee you a single thing in this comp but it’s certainly a good place to be in for the group.”
Rivals clubs raised their eyebrows when Collingwood returned to training in December and went “hammer and tongs” from their opening session, clearly determined to not be left behind.
They haven’t been without issues at the start of their back-to-back quest. Daniel McStay went down early with a knee and will miss the season. Nathan Murphy is out indefinitely with concussion. Brayden Maynard is still recovering from major shoulder surgery and veteran Scott Pendlebury will go into the season without a practice match.
But already the genius of coach Craig McRae has been on display. After coming up with a brilliant theme of ‘Take The Steps’ last year, the third year coach quickly changed the narrative of the premiership defence.
The term back-to-back was binned with Pies quickly pushing out the phrase “back to work” to sum up their mindset about climbing Everest again … or going back into the lolly shop.
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