AFL Finals: Is Brisbane’s defence good enough to win the premiership?
A club legend says the Lions must improve in this key area if they are to win the flag and even Chris Fagan concedes his side has been ‘inconsistent’ in that area in recent weeks.
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There’s a cautionary air of inevitability about Saturday’s qualifying final at the Gabba.
Port Adelaide’s middling late-season form, coupled with Brisbane’s unbeaten record at home has conspired to hold the Lions up as heavy favourites to punch an early preliminary final ticket.
The Lions hope – and fans expect – to ride consecutive home finals straight into the decider and as Chris Fagan revealed earlier in the week, this looms as Brisbane’s best chance under his tenure to do so.
The midfield is humming and the forward line looks as potent as ever. St Kilda got an early taste of finals footy a fortnight ago when the Lions stifled their defensive 50 transition and turned the contest into a game of half-court up to halftime.
Much of the talk has centred on Port’s poor defensive profile and how the high-octane ball movement of the Lions can pick the visitors apart on a slick Gabba surface.
But what of Brisbane?
It’s perhaps the only question mark on the Lions entering September – can their defensive system hold up under finals pressure against the best sides?
| Lions Defensive Profile | ||
| R18-24 | Rank | |
| Opp. Chain to Score % | 20% | 11th |
| Points Against | 83.0 | 11th |
| Opp. Score per Inside 50 % | 45% | 13th |
| Opp. Points from Clearance | 38.1 | 17th |
| Opp. Def. 50 to Inside 50 % | 21% | 10th |
Over the past seven weeks the Lions profile as a below-average team defensively.
The most worrying numbers for Fagan and his coaching staff – particularly this weekend – are opposition score per inside 50 (13th) and opposition points from clearance (17th).
Those two weaknesses marry up perfectly with Port Adelaide’s key strengths in 2023.
Ken Hinkley’s side ranks fifth for score per inside 50 percentage and first for points from stoppage.
Port Adelaide is the best team in the competition at locking the ball inside 50 and converting forward-half stoppages into scores.
Lions legend Simon Black is bullish about their flag hopes but believes they must improve defensively if they are to go all the way in September.
“That’s the challenge for mine,” Black told this masthead.
“This will be the legacy of Fages. Can he take them from the really good side they’ve been for four years and turn them into a great side?
“They’re very capable. But if sides take it up to them, can Brisbane fight fire with fire in that manner?
“For mine, (the improvement) is that ruthlessness defensively.
“In world sport they talk about the premiership sides being so strong defensively. I think last year Brisbane was ranked number one offensively but only seventh or eighth defensively and that just doesn’t cut it to win a premiership.”
| Core Four Profile – Past Six Weeks | ||
| Brisbane | Port Adelaide | |
| With The Footy | 4th | 3rd |
| Without The Footy | 10th | 11th |
| Clearance | 8th | 2nd |
| Post Clearance | 3rd | 16th |
After the St Kilda victory that clinched a home qualifying final, Fagan was asked for his thoughts on the defensive side of Brisbane’s game.
The coach conceded it had been “a little inconsistent” in the lead-in to finals but felt the side was better placed than 12 months earlier.
“I think our system is better. I think our players work together better now,” he said.
“Our backline – the same seven or eight guys have played there for weeks. This time last year I think we had 14 or 15 blokes play through there in the last two months, so there’s some continuity there and good understanding.
“It’s going to get tested in the finals, but I think it’s in better shape.”
Port will be first finals foe to test Brisbane’s premiership credentials and we should have a much better idea of the Lions’ flag hopes come Saturday night.
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Originally published as AFL Finals: Is Brisbane’s defence good enough to win the premiership?
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