AFL Finals 2024: Chris Fagan foresaw Carlton and Brisbane’s finals rivalry before anyone else

Chris Fagan called it a long time before anyone else — Brisbane Lions against Carlton was about to become one of the AFL’s fiercest finals rivalries. CALLUM DICK unpacks the key battles.

Even before Brisbane and Carlton became genuine finals contenders, Lions coach Chris Fagan prophesied the Blues would be a future thorn in his team’s side.

“Fages earmarked it six years ago,” Brisbane midfielder Hugh McCluggage told this masthead on the eve of their elimination final at the Gabba.

“He said this was a club that had plenty of young talent and, ‘I’m sure we’re going to have plenty of battles with them in the future’ – and he was correct.”

Twelve months on from their famous preliminary final meeting – where Brisbane came from five goals down to book a place in the grand final – the two proud clubs will renew hostilities on Saturday night.

Brisbane Lions coach Chris Fagan sees a lot of similarities between the two sides. Picture: Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

Brisbane legend Michael Voss will once again march the Navy Blue army into his former home, as Carlton sizes up the heavily-favoured Lions with a nothing-to-lose attitude that could prove fatal for Fagan’s men if not careful.

Last year Voss was the centrepiece of the preliminary final discussion when the triple-premiership Lion returned to Brisbane to face the club he played for, captained and coached over two decades.

This time around the focus is on his players – six of whom have overcome injury in time for the cutthroat clash.

The Blues’ finals fate was taken out of their hands when Jack Higgins’ miraculous snap sealed victory for St Kilda in round 24 – but Fremantle’s defeat to Port Adelaide ensured Voss’ side lived to fight another day.

Now the Blues are eager to make the most of their September second chance and, buoyed by the stirring 46-point comeback victory at the same venue in Opening Round, will give themselves every chance of causing an upset.

“They’ve got a really good core group of players that are a similar age to ours,” McCluggage said.

“We played them in the prelim last year and in a really good Opening Round battle where we were on the wrong end of the result, but we’re looking forward to testing ourselves against them again.”

The Lions and Blues’ lists are not just “similar” in age. They are identical. At an average age of 24.8 years, they are the equal-sixth oldest lists in the AFL. The two sides are firmly in the premiership window but only one can progress to a semi-final next weekend.

In a big blow to the visitors’ hopes, reigning Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow was unable to overcome an ankle injury in time for Saturday’s final.

Curnow booted four goals in the gutsy comeback earlier this season and will be sorely missed inside 50. It leaves the returning Harry McKay as the focal point of the Carlton attack.

No Curnow makes life much easier for Harris Andrews, who will have greater opportunity to play his damaging intercepting game now that partner in crime Jack Payne is back from injury.

Voss has rolled the dice with six changes for the trip north, including the surprising selection of ex-Lion Sam Docherty, who only 183 days earlier ruptured his ACL in the Opening Round win.

The Blues will be bolstered by the return of a number of stars, but has Voss tempted fate by bringing so many players back from injury at once? That question will only be answered with the benefit of hindsight.

The one constant for Carlton this season – and every season – is inspirational skipper Patrick Cripps.

The Lions’ match winner is Lachie Neale but just as damaging is Cripps, who has proved time and again he has the will and the way to put the Blues on his shoulders when required.

The two superstars share three Brownlow Medals between them and will be neck-and-neck in the race for ‘Charlie’ later this month. But first, they have a blockbuster duel to the death at the Gabba.

Patrick Cripps and Lachie Neale will have a big say in the outcome of Saturday night’s elimination final. Picture: Jerad Williams

“There’s only a handful of players in the competition you have to specifically prepare for and he’s definitely one of them,” McCluggage said of Cripps.

“His ability to win the ball in tight, his size and the way he helps his team when he gets going is something we will have to nullify.

“We’ve got a few different options to go to but we’ll also back our midfield in.”

Josh Dunkley or Jarrod Berry will no doubt get the job on Cripps, while George Hewett was the Blues’ go-to guy for Neale in Opening Round and was able to get under the Lions co-captain’s skin.

The match-ups for this one are fascinating.

Brisbane and Carlton enter Saturday night as the No. 1 and No. 2 clearance sides in the competition and the midfield looms as the major battleground in which the game will be decided.

On paper, the Lions appear to bat a lot deeper than the Blues.

Where Brisbane holds the advantage – via Champion Data

Will Ashcroft’s return to the line-up – and Cam Rayner’s ability to provide game breaking bursts through the midfield – has allowed McCluggage to become more damaging forward of centre this season.

In the modern game where midfielders handball almost twice as often as they kick, McCluggage is an anomaly. With every possession his first instinct is to find a target by foot and he almost always hits the mark.

It makes him one of the more damaging accumulators in the competition. So when he can drift forward and hit the scoreboard, it adds another layer to the Lions’ attack.

“My role has changed a bit now that Ashy is playing a bit of time inside,” McCluggage said.

“To be able to go forward is something I enjoy. It’s not just to rest down there, it lets us give the opposition a different look.

“Midfield, forward, wing … what I’ve worked on throughout my career is being able to play different roles so that I can accommodate for the team the coaches select each week.”

McCluggage was named Brisbane’s joint-best finals player last year alongside Keidean Coleman. If the Lions had gone on to win the grand final, he would have been in the Norm Smith Medal conversation after kicking two goals from 21 touches.

Hugh McCluggage was Brisbane’s best player in last year’s finals series and is poised to play a big role in September once again. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

Brisbane is stacked with players capable of tearing a game apart in September and McCluggage is absolutely one of those.

The 26 year old has already amassed more disposals, clearances and goals than last season.

“There’s obviously a bit more pressure on you to perform for those big games and you want to play as well as you can in them because there is more on the line,” he said.

“Hopefully I can just do what I’ve been doing in the back end of the season and keep my form consistent. I’m not worried about too much more than that.

How Brisbane owns the contest – via Champion Data

“I’ve been fortunate to play in six finals series now but something Fages said to us last week is you never know how many you’re going to play in. I sit here as a 26 year old that’s been lucky enough to play in six … and you can get caught thinking it’s going to be the norm, but it’s not.

“Halfway through the year we didn’t even know we would be playing finals, so we’re just really excited to be able to give it a good crack.

“For me, it’s just another test of how far I’ve come in my career and where I sit in these high pressure games.”

Originally published as AFL Finals 2024: Chris Fagan foresaw Carlton and Brisbane’s finals rivalry before anyone else