Showdown analysis: After eight years, is Adelaide the best team in the City of Churches again?

Ahead of a crucial Showdown in Port Adelaide’s last season under Ken Hinkley, Matt Turner examines whether the balance of power in Adelaide has shifted to the Crows for the first time since 2017.

The last time the Crows finished an AFL season above Port Adelaide, Malcolm Turnbull was Prime Minister, AFLX had just happened, the Covid pandemic was a couple of years away and Ed Sheeran was dominating the Australian charts.

It was 2017, Adelaide reached a grand final under Don Pyke and the Power was knocked out of the major round during the first week by a Luke Shuey goal after the siren.

The Crows are yet to make the top eight since, finishing two, one, 15, 12, three, five, and 12 places behind their fierce rival over the subsequent seven seasons.

Is this the year they move past Port?

Who really rules South Australia? Picture: Mark Brake/Getty Images

The two clubs are seven spots apart on the ladder entering Saturday night’s Showdown – Adelaide is fifth with a 5-3 record and the Power is 12th (4-4).

Remarkably, the Crows have never been ahead of Port from this stage of the season in Matthew Nicks’ five previous seasons as coach.

A game style that looks in better order, adding squad depth and a kinder draw have Adelaide well placed to push past the Power in 2025.

Champion Data statistics reveal the Crows’ offence, defence, contest and territory are far stronger than their cross-town rival after eight rounds.

Adelaide is No. 1 in the AFL for points for and points from turnovers, No. 2 for scores per inside 50 and ninth in points from stoppages.

Port ranks 13th, 11th, ninth and 12th in the same categories.

Defensively, the Power has leaked goals, sitting 15th for points against, 12th for scores per inside 50 against, 11th in points against from turnovers and second-worst in points scored from stoppages.

Adelaide has significantly improved its defence, ranking as the sixth-stingiest.

It sits seventh for scores against per inside 50 and points against from turnovers, and ninth in points against from stoppages.

The contest and territory comparison is starkest, making for concerning reading for Port.

Nicks’ side is fifth in contested possessions, compared to the Power’s 17th, and third in clearances, while Port is the worst in the competition.

It is staggering a side with names like Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Jason Horne-Francis and Ollie Wines has been beaten so badly in the midfield.

Adelaide also ranks sixth in inside 50s and time in forward half, while Port is 11th in both.

The Crows have improved across the ground after strengthening their squad – and best 23 – during the off-season.

They recruited GWS duo Isaac Cumming and James Peatling, along with Melbourne premiership player Alex Neal-Bullen.

After having the youngest list in the AFL as recently as three years ago, Adelaide’s is now the seventh-oldest with an average of 24.7.

The Crows side that beat Essendon at the MCG in round 2 was the club’s oldest since round 23, 2019, Pyke’s last match as coach.

Port’s squad is the seventh-youngest this year.

The SANFL ladder gives some indication of the depth of the respective lists.

Adelaide is third with a 4-1 record, Port is third-bottom with a 1-4 ratio.

Long-term injuries to its top recruit, former Gold Coast swingman Jack Lukosius, as well as to key forward Todd Marshall and reliable backman Brandon Zerk-Thatcher have hurt.

Adelaide are now without two important pieces, veteran midfielder Matt Crouch and defender Nick Murray.

Both clubs will only be looking to Saturday night, but Champion Data thinks things will only get tougher from here for Port.

It considers the Power’s remaining fixture as the hardest in the competition.

Port’s double-up games, besides the second Showdown, are against finals contenders the Hawks, Geelong, Fremantle, Carlton and slow-starting 2024 grand finalists Sydney.

The Crows’ is rated as the fifth-easiest.

Their other double-ups are strugglers North Melbourne and West Coast, plus contenders Collingwood, Gold Coast and Hawthorn.

While signs are pointing to a strong season from Adelaide, the jury is still out because of the Crows’ record on the road and in close games.

Being able to turn tight contests into wins and grind to road victories have been strengths for Port in recent years.

Taylor Walker and Sam Jacobs celebrate a goal during the 2017 Showdown.

The Crows are re-establishing themselves as the best team in South Australia.

The Crows are 6-17 away from home since the start of 2023.

They are 3-1-10 in matches decided by six points or fewer over that span.

The Power was 7-4 in each of the past two seasons away from Adelaide Oval but had started poorly this year at 1-3.

Ken Hinkley’s side’s record in games decided by a goal or less since the start of 2023 is a stunning 10-1.

But what Port also has in its kitbag are heavy defeats.

Two of at least 90 points this year has the Power with the fifth-worst percentage in the competition.

That may mean it needs to win an extra match to separate itself from the chasing pack because all the top-eight sides have more than 114.

Adelaide’s percentage is the third-best at 131.8, a big boost if things get tight by season’s end.

It is still very early in the campaign and tough to call how things finish between the Showdown rivals.

Recent history suggests Port finds a way to put itself in the top-eight mix and the Crows can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Saturday night will tell us more, as Adelaide either pushes two games clear of the Power or Port moves level with 5-4 records.

Bookmakers TAB have a clear favourite in the race for which SA club finishes higher.

It lists Adelaide at $1.25 to make the top eight and Port at $6.

The Crows are the seventh-favourite at $18 to win the flag, whereas only five teams sit below the Power on $67.

Originally published as Showdown analysis: After eight years, is Adelaide the best team in the City of Churches again?