Run Home: Every finals contender’s round 23 match analysed, predicted ladder
The eight is still yet to be set with every club except Geelong facing a possible rise or slide. But how high could your team climb in round 23? And how low could they fall?
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Home finals, double chances and salivating elimination finals are all on the cards with the make up of the AFL season to go down to the wire next Sunday.
There’s only one certainty: the Cats have locked away top spot. But the final position of every other team is up for grabs.
Carlton can still break its finals drought, the Pies’ top four chances are still alive and St Kilda fans – get the calculators out – you’re still a chance.
For everyone else, here’s what could happen after next week’s final round. There’s a lot of dominoes that will fall and, as we know so far in season 2022, good luck predicting what happens next.
THE FOUR KEY GAMES THAT WILL SHAPE THE EIGHT
Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Top four, home finals and avoiding Richmond at the MCG all up for grabs.
GWS Giants v Fremantle
A shock result here and the whole ladder will be thrown on its head. Dockers win and they can still finish top four, but a lot else has to go right.
Collingwood v Carlton
A finals berth is on the line for the Blues and top four for the Pies while Dogs, Dockers, Lions and Tigers fans will be watching on with interest.
St Kilda v Sydney
Saints have to win to have any hope of playing finals. A shock Swans loss would create ladder positioning chaos.
LADDER PERMUTATIONS
1. Geelong 68 points, 139.7%
Round 23: West Coast (GMHBA Stadium)
With a two-game buffer at the top of the ladder, the Cats secured the minor premiership with their 60-point thumping of Gold Coast. The Cats can extend their winning streak to 13 games in their final-round clash against the West Coast Eagles.
HIGHEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 1st
LOWEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 1st
PREDICTED FINISH: 1st
2. Sydney Swans 60 points, 128.3%
Round 23: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
A strong win over the Magpies propelled Sydney from sixth to second on the ladder. The Swans can secure a top-four position with a win over St Kilda on Sunday, but they can still finish top-four with a loss if the Demons beat Brisbane or the Giants upset the Dockers. The percentage battle with the Dees will be crucial, but a home qualifying final looms.
HIGHEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 2nd
LOWEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 6th
PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd
3. Melbourne 60 points, 127.7%
Round 23: Brisbane (Gabba)
There is plenty riding on the Demons’ final-round clash against the Brisbane Lions, which could significantly shape what path their premiership defence takes. Win and the Demons can finish top four. Lose and the Demons could finish as low as fifth or sixth.
HIGHEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 2nd
LOWEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 6th
PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd
4. Brisbane 60 points, 124.1%
Round 23: Melbourne (Gabba)
The equation for the Lions is simple. Win and they finish inside the top four, lose and they could finish as low as sixth – but would almost certainly say goodbye to a double chance. If the Pies lose they would sneak fifth and get a home elimination final. If the Dockers and Magpies lose, they could still snare a top-four spot.
HIGHEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 2nd
LOWEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 6th
PREDICTED FINISH: 5th
5. Collingwood 60 points, 104.4%
Round 23: Carlton (MCG)
Dropping to fifth after their loss to the Swans, a top-four spot will be on the line in the Magpies’ clash against arch-rivals Carlton. Beat the Blues and they can lock in a top-four position. Lose and they almost certainly don’t make the top four and could face the Tigers in a mouth-watering elimination final.
HIGHEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 3rd
LOWEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 6th
PREDICTED FINISH: 6th
6. Fremantle 58 points, 116.4%
Round 23: GWS (UNSW Canberra Oval)
Needs Collingwood to lose Carlton in next weekend’s blockbuster or have the Dees knock off the Lions to secure a top-four spot. That’s presuming they knock off the Giants. Their draw against Richmond delivered a crucial two points. But if Pies and the Lions both win then the Dockers would miss out on the double chance.
HIGHEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 3rd
LOWEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 6th
PREDICTED FINISH: 4th
7. Richmond 50 points, 118.7%
Round 23: Essendon (MCG)
The Tigers can now only finish seventh or eighth after moving up a position following their 61-point win over Hawthorn. Even if they lost to Essendon in Round 23, the Tigers would still have a two-point buffer over the Western Bulldogs. Their opponent? Could be any of Freo, Pies or the Lions.
HIGHEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 7th
LOWEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 8th
PREDICTED FINISH: 7th
8. Carlton 48 points, 108.8%
Round 23: Collingwood (MCG)
If the Blues win, they’re in. Defeat Collingwood at the MCG on Sunday and Carlton secures its first finals berth since 2013. But the Blues can still hold on to their position in the eight if they lose, as long as their percentage remains higher than the Bulldogs, or the Dogs lose (the gap is currently 0.9 per cent, so they would need the Dogs to either lose or win a nailbiter then run the Pies to the wire). The fate is in their hands. For theatre, let’s say they knock off their arch-rivals at the G. Wouldn’t Melbourne be humming with the Tiges, Pies and Blues all featuring in September?
HIGHEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 7th
LOWEST POSSIBLE FINISH: Miss
PREDICTED FINISH: 8th
9. Western Bulldogs 44 points, 107.9%
Round 23: Hawthorn (UTAS Stadium)
The Dogs need a final-round win against Hawthorn in Launceston on Saturday and will then be willing the Blues, who have a marginally higher percentage, to lose against Collingwood if they are to steal the last finals spot. A Hawthorn or Carlton win and it’s all over for the Dogs.
HIGHEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 8th
LOWEST POSSIBLE FINISH: Miss
PREDICTED FINISH: 9th
10. St Kilda 44 points, 100.1%
Round 23: Sydney (SCG)
Mathematically not out of the top eight race, but the Saints will need a miracle if they are to sneak in. Would need to win by more than 100 points against Sydney at Marvel Stadium on Sunday and rely on Carlton and the Western Bulldogs losing.
HIGHEST POSSIBLE FINISH: 8th
LOWEST POSSIBLE FINISH: Miss
PREDICTED FINISH: 10th
FINAL PREDICTED EIGHT
1. Geelong
2. Sydney
3. Melbourne
4. Fremantle
5. Brisbane Lions
6. Collingwood
7. Richmond
8. Carlton
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9. Western Bulldogs
10. St Kilda
HOW FINALS WEEK ONE COULD LOOK
Geelong (1st) v Fremantle (4th)
Brisbane (5th) v Carlton (8th)
Collingwood (6th) v Richmond (7th)
Sydney (2nd) v Melbourne (3rd)
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