Ralphy’s desperation rankings: The winless teams that can’t afford to be 0-2
Are the Cats too old? Does Brisbane have a soft underbelly? The heat will be put on Friday night’s loser. Jon Ralph ponders whether either could recover from 0-2.
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A summer full of hope can turn into a despairing reality within the space of two AFL rounds.
After one of the best opening weekends in recent memory, four games this weekend will leave the loser 0-2 and in a deep early hole.
Carlton-Collingwood, Geelong-Brisbane, Gold Coast-North Melbourne and Fremantle-GWS all shape as huge contests given the recent history of 0-2 teams.
As Fox Footy stated on Sunday, of the last 58 teams to start a season 0-2, only five made finals.
Which of those eight teams most need a win this weekend?
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1. THE PIES
What is their problem?
Their midfield looked mediocre, their forward line has coughed and spluttered for 18 months, the trio of top-20 picks such as Ollie Henry might take a fraction longer than they hoped, and the Pies suddenly look like the kind of side that might sneak, rather than march, into the eight.
Can they fix it easily?
Yes. But only Steele Sidebottom was out of their best 22 on Friday night, so it has to be done by the mob that never looked likely against the Western Bulldogs. Jordan De Goey missed three shots he normally snaffles so he has upside, while surely the Pies have to try Darcy Moore as a key forward again.
Can they rebound from 0-2?
Yes, but can they make the top two? It is the kind of year in which Port Adelaide and even West Coast might rack up a huge tally of home-and-away wins, so do the Pies want to have to win 16 of 20 games to finish top four?
Fan and media over-reaction if they are winless by next Monday?
At least one of the Monday morning expert commentators will ask out loud if it’s time for Ross Lyon to become the Collingwood coach IMMEDIATELY …
2. THE BLUES
What is their problem?
They keep running into Richmond in Round 1. But at least this time they threw punches for two hours before falling short. Their issue isn’t form, it’s the massive summer expectations. Blues fans so patient over this never-ending rebuild might drop their bundle with a 0-2 start.
Can they fix it easily?
Definitely. Harry McKay, never play on from within 50m again. The Blues should have the better of the midfield battle and Jacob Weitering and Liam Jones would believe they can dominate Brody Mihocek and Mason Cox to keep the low-scoring Pies in check. And Jack Martin will return.
Can they rebound from 0-2?
Yes. The Blues run into Fremantle (at home) and Gold Coast (away) then Port Adelaide (home) and Brisbane (home). They would have to believe they are good enough to win three of those contests to get back to 3-3.
Fan and media over-reaction reaction if they are winless by next Monday?
Drag out the tired old Patrick Cripps-to-Fremantle narrative even though he has stated he’s going nowhere.
3. THE GIANTS
What is their problem?
A Giants side with a list in transition gave as good as it received against St Kilda, but as Leon Cameron said his side just didn’t seize the big moments like Brett Ratten’s Saints.
The Giants had 68 inside 50s but lost the clearance count by nine, so were at least able to move the ball without midfield dominance after their failures in that area of 2020.
Can they fix it easily?
Yes. Toby Greene booted 1.3 and Harry Himmelberg missed a set shot that would have iced the game. So given the midfield stood up, it’s getting more bang for buck from a forward line that still has enough talent.
Can they rebound from 0-2?
The Giants’ next four are Melbourne (Canberra), Collingwood (MCG), Sydney (SCG) and the Bulldogs (Canberra). That’s tough but at least three are in NSW. Still, this doesn’t look like the kind of GWS side so talented it will go on a six-match run, so Round 2 is must-win.
Fan and media over-reaction reaction if they are winless by next Monday?
You already know the answer. The Ferrari stuff, the question over Leon Cameron’s payout sum. It goes without saying all of that is best avoided with an away win.
4. THE LIONS
What is their problem?
Pudding Heads. You can use all the stats and GPS data you want, but from afar the Lions looked like they got ahead of themselves early. Then after getting back on parity at half time against the Swans they got ahead of themselves again. A forward line without Cam Rayner also had Charlie Cameron put in a stinker, so everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.
Can they fix it easily?
Damned straight. A team that botched its chance at a Gabba Grand Final will be wound up tight against Geelong. No better time to take on the Cats than without Jeremy Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield, even at GMHBA Stadium.
Can they rebound from 0-2?
Yes. To play finals, they can. Brisbane is exactly the kind of team that can get on a winning run, playing high-octane footy, especially with 11 Queensland (10 Gabba, one Metricon) games to come. Yet like the Pies, this year is about finishing top two, not top four, so they would need to win 16 of their last 20 to guarantee that result.
Fan and media over-reaction reaction if they are winless by next Monday?
The Lions fans won’t go quite as troppo as their Victorian counterparts but get set for a full examination of whether the Lions do have a soft underbelly or miss Rayner more than we think.
5. THE SUNS
What is their problem?
Not much, really. But this game is so important because if they have any prospect of a finals surge they take care of business against North Melbourne. If not, it will be like missing par on the short, easy par five on the golf course while your rivals push ahead.
Can they fix it easily?
Not much to fix for the Suns, who lost no admirers after falling three goals down (and losing Matt Rowell) in a heartbeat on Sunday night against West Coast. In the narrow loss there was a lovely blend of old and new combining, as Jack Bowes, Jack Lukosius, Sam Collins, David Swallow, Touk Miller and Oleg Markov were all in their better players.
Can they rebound from 0-2?
If they lose to North Melbourne, probably not. This season is going to be too competitive, with too few easybeats, to think you can give rivals a two-game headstart and catch up.
Fan and media over-reaction if they are winless by next Monday?
Surely no one would drag out the old Suns-to-Tassie relocation trope yet … that’s a Round 6 story.
6. THE CATS
What is their problem?
They got jumped by a harder, hungrier, more committed rival who showed the Cats that entering a game in cruise mode just won’t be good enough. Then Paddy Dangerfield got himself suspended, which means they might have to play the next three rounds without him and Jeremy Cameron.
Can they fix it?
Of course they can, which is why they are only sixth on this list despite their Grand Final aspirations. They take on Brisbane at home, where they have won 11 in a row against the Lions, and know their best is good enough if it’s underpinned by the kind of rabid attack on the ball you know Joel Selwood will summon from the very first bounce.
Can they rebound from 0-2?
Without a doubt. Geelong is capable of long runs of consecutive wins. They won six on the bounce last year, were 11-1 in 2019 and won the first five in 2018 (and were 8-3 at the turn).
Fan and media over-reaction if they are winless by Monday?
Is Geelong too old, given it will have 12 players 30 or older by June? Or perhaps the old: “Were they scarred by the Grand Final loss?” will get a run-around.
7. THE DOCKERS
What is their problem?
They can’t keep their players on the park. The medical list is now approaching 20, which means so much is being left to the youngsters. A patched-up forward line against Melbourne lost Alex Pearce early and the Demons interceptors had a day out, with Joel Hamling suffering an ankle injury at the other end.
Can they fix it?
If Nathan Fyfe puts his superman cape on. Adam Cerra, Caleb Serong, David Mundy and Andrew Brayshaw are good enough to allow Fyfe to play exclusively forward alongside Matt Taberner, who was very well held against the Demons. If Fyfe doesn’t play there, GWS intercept marker Nick Haynes will surely run amok.
Can they rebound from 0-2?
It depends on their injury list. Rory Lobb is still a while away after his knee injury, while Michael Walters is two weeks off after his hamstring injury. When the Dockers win, Walter is in the thick of it. If he battles all year with that issue, put a black line through them as finals contenders.
Media and fan over-reaction if they are winless by Monday?
The injury list will give them an out. Surely even the most passionate fans can see in today’s football winning with most of your star talls out can be close to impossible.
8. THE KANGAROOS
What is their problem?
They just aren’t much good at this stage given the kids on show and inside mids on the sidelines including Jed Anderson and Ben Cunnington. But coach David Noble knows the score and would have been thrilled with the output of Luke Davies-Uniacke, Jy Simpkin, Bailey Scott, Tom Powell and Jaidyn Stephenson, to name a few.
Can they fix it?
Not if they can’t get a scoring shot out of Nick Larkey and Cam Zurhaar again. Alongside Josh Walker the trio could only scrounge one goal against the white-hot Port Adelaide. Larkey and Zurhaar have all the talent in the world but allowed eight intercept marks to Ryan Burton and Aliir Aliir.
Can they rebound from 0-2?
Not a chance. If the Roos get back Cunnington and Anderson they could still be a six-win team, but opportunities like this one against Gold Coast are the kind of games they must capitalise on.
Media and fan over-reaction if they are winless by Monday?
By Monday night at about 10.45pm they will be off to Tasmania once again … and we will start linking them to the No.1 overall draft pick.
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Originally published as Ralphy’s desperation rankings: The winless teams that can’t afford to be 0-2
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