Moneyball column: Stay up to date with the latest trade and contract news around the AFL

Eric Hipwood long-term deal has copped intense scrutiny. But fans are missing the real story of the seven-year deal.

Eric Hipwood kicks a goal during the 2023 AFL Round 04 match between the Brisbane Lions and the Collingwood Magpies at the Gabba.

Melbourne stands to be the big winner if Fremantle’s poor start to the season continues on the back of last year’s Luke Jackson trade.

Melbourne owns the Dockers first-round and second round picks in this year’s draft.

Based on current ladder positions, it means Melbourne has pick five and 23 from Fremantle in its back pocket before compensation picks are added.

Melbourne also still holds its own first-round pick, meaning the Demons, who are this year’s premiership favourite, currently have three picks inside the first 23.

Melbourne is clearly thinking the Dockers will improve after a slow start to the season, which has netted Justin Longmuir’s men only one win from their first four games.

But in any case the club pushed a hard bargain in trade talks with the Dockers as part of the total deal which landed Simon Goodwin pick 15 in last year’s draft as well as the two future picks.

The Demons snared key forward Matthew Jefferson with pick 15, and will have a strong hand once again in next year’s draft with Fremantle’s pair of picks.

GWS Giants are also sitting pretty with Richmond’s first pick in its keeping after trading Jacob Hopper to Punt Rd last year.

The Tigers are under pressure early with one win and one draw from their first four games, with Sydney Swans and Melbourne to come over the next fortnight.

Based on ladder positions the Hopper pick is slated at No. 7 but there are no guarantees the Tigers will climb inside the top eight after losing Tom Lynch for two months with a fractured foot.

Could Nat Fyfe finish his career in the St Kilda tricolours? Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Saints might make a big play on Fyfe

Expect St Kilda to do its due diligence on Fremantle superstar Nat Fyfe if has the passion and drive to play on next season elsewhere.

Fyfe is out of contract and is an unrestricted free agent, meaning any club can pick up the dual Brownlow medallist for nothing.

Fremantle wants to look after its champion forward, but he has been frustrated by injuries including shoulder, hamstring and foot problems.

St Kilda would love his leadership, champion playmaking qualities in the same vein Brisbane landed Hawthorn great Luke Hodge for the final years of his career.

Ross Lyon coached Fyfe at Fremantle and has lauded his influence on his teammates in the locker room and training track.

They continue to share an excellent relationship but Fyfe’s bumper six-year deal which was worth $1 million a season ends this year.

Fyfe has made no suggestions he would consider leaving Fremantle at season’s end but new Saints’ list boss Stephen Silvagni will surely dangle the carrot.

Bombers keen to invest more in the future

Essendon seems unlikely to trade any of its top draft picks in this year’s trade period as coach Brad Scott focuses firmly on the future.

The Bombers have about $2 million of salary cap space to try and secure a big name from a rival club, but it is unlikely the Bombers will trade away any of its top draft choices in a deal.

Despite an extremely encouraging start to the season, Scott wants to continue to invest in top-end young talent.

It means Essendon could still strongly consider a free agent who would not cost the club an early draft pick.

Essendon tried to land Collingwood superstar Jordan De Goey as a free agent last year, but he stayed with the Magpies’ despite an offer from St Kilda, too.

Could someone like Lachie Whitfield somehow end up at Hawthorn along with a choice draft pick?

Hawks poised to swoop if clubs looking to offload

Hawthorn is open to using its vast cap space to exploring salary cap dump options this year in a bid to maximise its draft hand.

The Hawks are paying some of Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara’s salaries at rival clubs this year but already have ample cap space.

They will clear even more space entering the 2024 season, but while their first-round selection could be in the top three they have traded away multiple 2023 selections.

To secure the No. 18 pick that got them Josh Weddle they traded away their 2023 second-rounder and third-rounder as well as last year’s pick 27.

They got back the Western Bulldogs’ second-rounder but it could be in the mid-30s.

Last year the Hawks were keen to be involved in the race for Gold Coast’s Jack Bowes — which came with the prized No. 7 draft pick given his new club had to inherit his $1.6 million contract.

There will be teams which again attempt to hand off unwieldy contracts to improve their cap position, and the Hawks are one of a number of clubs likely to be keen.

The Hawks also have multiple father-son prospects including 196cm forward Will McCabe, son of board member Luke, and Finn Maginness’ brother Ned.

There are clubs like GWS who have veterans on massive contracts like Lachie Whitfield and Nick Haynes.

But whether clubs would be willing to hand over picks to clubs like Hawthorn to get $1 million salaries off their books remains to be seen.

The Eric Hipwood contract is nowhere near as fat as many of the league’s star forwards.

Seven-year deal for Hipwood not that costly for Lions

The real story behind Eric Hipwood’s seven-year contract is a deal that gives him security and Brisbane a key forward long-term on a much-reduced rate to the competition’s megastars.

Hipwood’s contract has become the most scrutinised in the AFL given his rollercoaster performances, with the Lions handing him a six-year extension at the end of last year.

But in truth Hipwood’s deal is nowhere near as fat as many of the league’s star forwards.

It is believed to be hundreds of thousands of dollars per year below the $800,000-plus starting salaries of rivals like Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow.

And Hipwood’s deal is at its peak now then lessens in value as his career goes on.

The Lions paid Hipwood as a pre-agent about to enter 2023 as a free agent who would have been handed quality offers they would have had to match.

He had kicked three and four goals and two in the three finals he played in last year in what was his sixth consecutive year with 24 or more goals.

And the deal expires when Hipwood is only 31, with the salary cap likely having gone up twice in pay deals since then.

So while his worst games are incredibly frustrating the Lions believe the deal was prudent and sensible.

Gryan Miers looms are one of the first contracts Geelong needs to address at the Cattery.

Small forward first cab off the rank for Cats

Geelong has eight members of its 2022 premiership coming out of contract at the end of the season, with work to start soon on an extension for small forward Gryan Miers.

Miers, 24, has yet to kick a goal so far this season (he has scored five behinds) but he is coming off a good display against the Hawks on Easter Monday where he had an equal career-high 25 disposals and 10 scoring involvements.

He started slowly last year but played every game after round 4 and was particularly good in the finals against Brisbane in the preliminary final and Sydney in the grand final.

Miers is averaging almost 20 disposals so far this season.

Originally published as Moneyball column: Stay up to date with the latest trade and contract news around the AFL