Mick McGuane analyses Brisbane and Port Adelaide’s crunch final

The Lions have been unbeatable in Brisbane this season, so what chance do the Power have? Mick McGuane analyses how both sides get it done and secure a home preliminary final.

McGuane Power vs Brisbane art

Brisbane Lions are a hot favourite to beat Port Adelaide at home, where they have been unbeaten this season.

But the Power have some weapons of their own and are more than capable of causing an upset.

AFL analyst Mick McGuane looks at the two teams, the important players and the key match-ups that will shape this big game.

BRISBANE LIONS

HOW THEY PLAY

The Lions are a team who are strong around contest and clearances, which allows them to get great territory and give their forward line plenty of supply.

Their ball movement has improved this year to include more of a corridor flavour, while post-clearance contested ball wins are a big part of their DNA.

Brisbane is an attacking and high-scoring team through its diverse forward line, which can trouble opposition sides in many ways.

The Lions have been the second-highest scoring team this season, scoring an average of 94.8 points per game.

They also rank second for generating scores once inside-50.

THE KEY

Don’t let Port Adelaide get on top at stoppages.

The Power have been the No. 1 team for scoring from stoppages this season, averaging 39.5 points a game from that scoring source.

That is despite them only averaging 1.8 more clearances than their opposition across the course of the year.

If the Brisbane midfielders have an off night at the coalface, their side’s back-six will be put under serious pressure by a Port Adelaide side which is good at locking the ball in its forward half.

Can the Lions stop Zak Butters? (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)

THE THEME

Win crucial contests post-clearance.

Post-clearance possession wins have been a weakness for Port Adelaide this season and this is one area where the Lions could really get on top.

Brisbane has ranked third when it comes to post-clearance wins over the past six weeks, while Port Adelaide has been the third-worst side over that period.

Post-clearance wins are one of the greatest indicators of success.

Brisbane is not going to win every clearance, but it will need to win or halve as many one-on-one contests away from clearance as possible.

If players like Harris Andrews and Jack Payne down back and Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron in attack can win more than their fair share of one-on-one contests, either in the air or at ground level, it will go a long way.

THE CHALLENGE

Mastering the occasion.

There is a sense of expectation that Brisbane should win this home qualifying final at the Gabba.

But finals footy isn’t that simple.

It was a long time ago now, but Port Adelaide belted the Lions by 54 points at the Adelaide Oval back in round 1.

Even though Brisbane is at home this time around – where it holds an 11-0 record this season – it can’t get too comfortable.

Complacency is the success disease in sport.

Mental toughness is an essential ingredient to winning.

The Power belted Brisbane in the opening round of the 2023 season. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

IF I WAS BRISBANE

I’d be making sure Charlie Cameron has space to work in inside-50.

Lachie Jones will go to him, but Cameron with space could do some damage and hit the scoreboard.

As a collective, you have to take away Aliir Aliir’s influence as an interceptor.

Be conscious of straight-line ball movement and change angles so that Aliir does not get set and control the air.

He has a great ability to drop off an opponent and be where the kick lands.

Harris Andrews goes to Todd Marshall, who will need to be contained given he will be a focal point in a forward line missing Charlie Dixon.

The Lions players must be aware of Jeremy Finlayson’s positioning, particularly when he is playing as a mobile ruckman.

Particularly if Daniher or Hipwood are pinch-hitting in the ruck against Finlayson, they will need to be wary of him pushing forward to make himself a marking target who can kick goals.

The other two players you have to be conscious of are the combination of Miles Bergman and Ryan Burton off halfback with their intercepting and uncontested possessions.

PORT ADELAIDE

HOW THEY PLAY

The Power are a side who are strong around stoppages, gain great territory from there and then lock the ball in their forward half.

Their defenders roll up behind their attack to squeeze to make the ground small, taking away pockets of space so that their opposition can’t move the ball end-to-end with ease.

Most of their defenders push into the forward half of the ground with aggressive and assertive positioning, rather than keeping a goalkeeper.

Port Adelaide ranks No. 1 in the competition for time in forward half and that provides plentiful scoring opportunities.

The Power have ranked as the third-highest scoring team in the competition this season, averaging 93.4 points a game.

THE KEY

Stifle Brisbane’s ball movement.

No time, no space.

How the Power defend against the Lions will be a key to their chances on the road at the Gabba.

They will need to get in the faces of their opponents and apply immediate tackling pressure, as well as generating perceived pressure through chasing.

Port will also need to make sure they have good corridor coverage, given Brisbane likes to channel the ball back through that area of the ground.

The Lions are a team that attacks and can score quickly through efficient ball use and a forward line that works together.

If you don’t get your pressure and 18-man team defence right, they are hard to stop.

The young Power midfield will play a big role in deciding the game. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

THE THEME

Free hit.

Not many are expecting the Power to win this match at the cauldron which is the Gabba.

But if Ken Hinkley’s side can play their way and score from stoppage dominance, they are every chance.

A returning Scott Lycett has to be super aggressive in the ruck battle against Oscar McInerney and give his midfield group of Zak Butters, Jason Horne-Francis, Connor Rozee and Willem Drew and Ollie Wines first use of the footy.

Port Adelaide averaged 39.5 points a game from stoppage this season – ranked No. 1 in the competition.

If it can put up a number like that against the Lions, as well as punish its opposition on turnover, it will be well placed to get over the line.

THE CHALLENGE

Can the defence hold fort?

Port Adelaide has shown an ability to absorb pressure this season, but its backline is going to be under siege at some stages.

The Lions rank first for inside-50 differential this season, averaging 8.8 more entries than their opposition.

They also make those entries count, scoring from 46 per cent of them to be ranked second in the competition.

The Power will have to be rock-solid in their defensive positioning but how much pressure their forwards and midfielders apply up the ground to slow down the Lions ball movement will determine how successful the backs will be.

If they don’t get it right, the Lions forwards will race back into a vacant forward line as they often like to do.

Joe Daniher has been electric at home for the Lions. (Photo by Albert Perez/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

IF I WERE THE POWER

I’d send Willem Drew straight to Lachie Neale and tell him not to leave his side.

Have Drew sweat on Neale all day and take away his first-possession gains, given he is Brisbane’s best and most creative stoppage player.

Lachie Jones has to go to Charlie Cameron, given he has a task-oriented mindset and has the power and speed to go with Cameron.

Todd Marshall has to be challenged to compete strongly against Harris Andrews.

He can’t allow Andrews to control the air with his intercept ability.

The Lions will try and free up Andrews, but Marshall has to play on him even though he is the forward.

I’d also be challenging the other midfielders – Butters, Rozee, Horne-Francis – to prove their worth on the road in a final because that’s where the game starts and finishes.

Without the engine room getting it done, Port will give up territory and they can’t rely on back-to-front ball movement to get them by.

MICK’S TIP – Brisbane Lions by 17 points

Originally published as Mick McGuane analyses Brisbane and Port Adelaide’s crunch final