Mick Malthouse breaks down the blockbuster clash between Melbourne and Geelong

Melbourne needs nine wins from the next 19 games. If they do that, the Demons will play finals. How confident should the supporters be?

Can the Cats stop Christian Petracca? Picture: Getty Images

Early wins are like gold. You put them in your back pocket and at season’s end they are like a $50 note you’d forgotten was in there. Jackpot!

For Melbourne supporters who have travelled a long, hard road, historically 12 wins gets you into the final eight. So nine wins out of the remaining 19 games could see your team in there.

Melbourne has beaten Fremantle, St Kilda and Greater Western Sydney — only one team from last year’s top eight — and in only one match have the Demons kicked more than 100 points.

Sunday’s opponent, Geelong, presents the biggest challenge the Dees have faced in 2021 but the early indicators are that they are up to task.

Melbourne’s growth this season has come from a more settled backline. A fully fit and confident Steven May has provided stability, allowing Jake Lever to add more value as an intercept player. Christian Salem, already a very good player, is becoming a great player with his outstanding ball use.

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Kysaiah Pickett has given the Demons some serious X-factor. Picture: Getty Images

Max Gawn is Max Gawn. The Melbourne captain always gives his all.

Christian Petracca, Jack Viney, Angus Brayshaw and Clayton Oliver have been steady in the middle. And the forward line, while not dominant, has still found a way to kick a winning score.

Kysaiah Pickett is such an exciting player, I rate him. He adds a difference to a forward line with Tom McDonald, who gives a great contest. Petracca on the forward line is dangerous. And Bayley Fritsch as a target. He isn’t always reliable but can hurt sides. Gawn’s ability to go forward is also impressive.

With Ben Brown and Sam Weideman playing a practice match in the reserves this weekend, the Demons have further improvement ahead.

It’s a good time for the Demons to play Geelong, without a fit Jeremy Cameron who can cause massive damage with his mobility. Without Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield, forward or in the middle, Melbourne’s defence won’t be as stretched.

Though Sunday’s test will be how May can defend one of the best key forwards in Tom Hawkins.

The game that the Demons play, when on song, could really hurt Geelong. Quick ball movement, corridor run and a hit-up forward like McDonald could put the Cats at risk.

Jordan Clark’s devastating speed against Hawthorn exposed a general lack of pace among his Geelong teammates. If Melbourne can control the ball with quick movement and capitalise on forward entries, it could cause a boilover.

But the Demons at 5-10 per cent off have a habit of sending the high ball too often into the scoring zone. The Cats thrive on pressuring sides into kicking the high ball into the forward 50 where they are masters of the intercept.

A smart Melbourne will need to kick to the one-on-ones or into space, to avoid feeding the Cats’ defenders.

Geelong needs to put a lot of work into Pickett to hold him back. Perhaps Jed Bews or new-found backline player Tom Atkins could go to him.

No club has yet to really get on top of a versatile Geelong backline which is particularly well structured due to the work of Matthew Scarlett as backline coach. The way the Cats’ defenders attack when they need to will test an exciting but unreliable Melbourne forward line.

It is rare to have a dominant midfield that doesn’t win the game, so this is where things will get really interesting.

The Steven May v Tom Hawkins battle could decide the match. Picture: Michael Klein

The new-found confidence of Melbourne’s midfield has the chance to put pressure on a reworked Cats midfield. Cameron Guthrie as the free runner, along with Mitch Duncan, will always find the ball like they did last week with 80 disposals between them.

But, the key to Geelong’s chance at victory comes from the ability of Mark O’Connor to take a key Demon mid out of the game, like he did to Lachie Neale when the Cats won by a point, and to Tom Mitchell when they won by five.

He will go to either Oliver or Petracca, whichever player Chris Scott has identified as Melbourne’s most important mid.

If the Demons’ midfield just turns up hoping for the best, O’Conner will get his way and Geelong will win comfortably. Melbourne is not good enough to have one of its best players taken out of the game and still win.

If Simon Goodwin has prepared his midfield for battle, it will get ugly, but the Dees could stay on top.

Whoever is tagged by O’Connor needs to double tag, and by double tag I mean to put time into a Duncan or a Joel Selwood big time — not with a glance, not a long-armed handshake — but with a physical one-on-one contest, thereby dragging O’Connor into new territory, tagging a “tagger”.

Can the Cats stop Christian Petracca? Picture: Getty Images

It is self-sacrificing for the good of the team.

This of course means other Demons like Ed Langdon and Jayden Hunt have to get active. The double-tag role cannot be left to one player, it has to be a unit defence and offence.

The Cats, who were early-season favourites to win the flag, haven’t kicked more than 100 points in a game and have two tight wins.

Early disruptions have had an unsettling effect. Groundwork into a Jeremy Cameron-Tom Hawkins master plan was thrown out with Cameron’s injury. And the added interference of losing Patrick Dangerfield hasn’t helped Geelong’s rhythm.

But it would be unwise to suggest the Cats aren’t the real thing because their depth is so great, and they keep finding a way to win.

I’ve said before that the Demons can get very happy with themselves and then lack intensity in the following quarter or next game. But if they are prepared to put their nose to the grindstone and forget about personal glory, they may be able to bank that $50 note and finals will be a step closer.

Originally published as Mick Malthouse breaks down the blockbuster clash between Melbourne and Geelong