McGuane’s mid-season report card: The telling number proving Dons are giving fans false hope

Essendon has been sitting inside the top four for the better part of two months, but in his mid-season report card, MICK McGUANE unpacks why he thinks Bombers fans will be let down yet again.

GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA - JUNE 02: Peter Wright of the Bombers in action during the round 12 AFL match between Gold Coast Suns and Essendon Bombers at People First Stadium, on June 02, 2024, in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Albert Perez/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

After being blasted out of the park against Port Adelaide in Round 4, the Bombers turned the jets on and rose towards the top of the ladder. But are they capable of mixing it with the big dogs?

Mick McGuane grades the Bombers’ first half of the season.

MICK’S MID-SEASON REPORT RATING: B

There’s no doubt that the Bombers have made some significant improvements with their game over the past 12 months.

But are they a top-four side, as the round 13 ladder suggests?

Not for mine.

Essendon’s percentage of 100.2 tells a significant story, being the worst of the top nine teams in the competition.

That is despite what was viewed as a favourable fixture in the first half of the season.

The reason why Brad Scott’s side sits where it does on the ladder is its efforts through the midfield.

The Bombers rank fifth for contested possession differential, fourth for uncontested possession differential and third for inside-50 differential.

Todd Goldstein has shouldered the ruck burden solo this season. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

They are willing to get after and win the disputed footy and are spreading well from contest to find space, generating uncontested possession chains.

Their clearance game has been good at times and poor at others.

The importance of ruckman Sam Draper cannot be understated, as a support for Todd Goldstein.

Draper is still ahead of Nick Bryan at the moment and Peter Wright is not the option as a secondary ruck.

The combination of Sam Durham and Jye Caldwell onball has added a hard edge to support captain Zach Merrett, who has brilliantly led from the front this year.

Durham and Caldwell have helped fill the spot of injured onballer Darcy Parish, while their form has meant the out-of-favour Dylan Shiel has been stuck in the VFL where he looks disinterested.

I’ve loved the move of Nic Martin forward, but he has to tidy up his kicking — especially when he has an opportunity to hit the scoreboard.

Is half back the best position for Essendon’s Nic Martin? Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

Poor goalkicking proved costly against Carlton last weekend, with Essendon having 19 more inside-50s and two more shots on goal but losing by 26 points.

The big question in the march towards September will be whether the Bombers can improve their ability to defend turnovers.

They rank 15th for points against from turnovers this season, not helped by their inability to stop end-to-end opposition ball movement.

Jordan Ridley’s return from injury over the past three weeks has provided a boost, but Essendon’s team defence across the ground has to become stronger.

THE FORWARD WHO MUST LIFT

Can Peter Wright stand up to the rigours of a finals campaign?

Based on his performance in a big game against Carlton last week, the answer is ‘no’.

Maybe it was just a bad game from Wright — who had one disposal inside-50 — but if the trend continues then it is a big concern for the Bombers.

Is Peter Wright the answer for the Bombers up forward? Picture: Albert Perez/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

If Wright is not the answer forward, they might have to get some more games into Nate Caddy.

Last year’s No. 10 draft pick competed well in his AFL debut against Richmond in Dreamtime and looks a player of the future.

Kyle Langford (28 goals) has had a great output again this season, but he needs some help.

WILL THE FINALS DROUGHT BE BROKEN?

As much as Essendon has set up its season with some early wins, it is no certainty to play finals.

The Bombers should beat West Coast after the bye, but the following four games — against Geelong, Collingwood, Melbourne and Adelaide – will trouble them.

They could prove to be a bit of an early-season tease team, based on who they have played so far.

However, given a relatively tough run home, Essendon will be deserving of a finals spot if it does make the cut — and won’t the fans celebrate that.

Originally published as McGuane’s mid-season report card: The telling number proving Dons are giving fans false hope