KFC SuperCoach 2022: The breakout players ready to take the next step
There are several KFC SuperCoach breakout candidates at the Roos this year. But The Phantom is big on one in particular. Here are 7 players who could take the next step.
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Every KFC SuperCoach knows the big guns – the stars of the game almost guaranteed to score well.
But the key to getting the jump on the rest of the competition – in your league or in the race for the grand prize – is identifying the players set to take the next step.
Sure, it can backfire – we’ve all been there – but finding the value in KFC SuperCoach is one of the keys to building the foundation of a successful year.
Here are seven players The Phantom is tipping to increase their average significantly in 2022.
Will Day (Haw)
$345,700, Def
2021 average: 79
Predicted average 2022: 90
If it wasn’t for injury, Day would’ve likely taken the next step already.
He exploded out of the blocks with a 122-point performance in Round 1 last season, but hurt his ankle the following week, however, and managed just five matches for the year.
Before he injured it again later in the season, the skilful Day tallied another 112 KFC SuperCoach points, on the back of 29 disposals and 10 intercepts, against the Giants.
In fact, if you take out the injury-affected score in Round 2 – which was 55 in 59 per cent game-time – Day’s average in four games last year was 85.
And, if all goes smoothly, that might be his floor in 2022. There are plenty of options in defence for new coach Sam Mitchell now, but the Hawks love to get the ball in Day’s hands.
Phantom’s verdict: With the discount, Day is priced at an average of 64 this year. Now that’s what I call underpriced.
Caleb Serong (Freo)
$451,000, Mid
2021 average: 83
Predicted average 2022: 104
When trying to identify the next breakout star, role change, more opportunity, big junior numbers and a strong finish to the previous season are some of the things you should be looking for.
It’s not often you find a player who fits under each category – but when you do, it feels so right.
Sorry, I couldn’t resist. But it does feel right for the emerging Dockers star in 2022.
Often last season – his second in the competition – Serong was used as a tagger by coach Justin Longmuir, who described the role as the 20-year-old earning his midfield stripes.
But when he was given more freedom to win his own ball, he thrived. Serong tallied 26 disposals or more in seven matches last season and won at least 30 in each of the final three rounds.
In that huge three-game stretch to finish 2021, Serong, averaged 32 disposals, 10 contested possessions, seven clearances and 118 KFC SuperCoach points.
And his graduation to full-time ball-winner is likely to be fast-tracked with the departure of Adam Cerra - as long as he’s able to increase his time-on-ground from 74 per cent.
There are plenty of ticks there. But there’s one more – his junior numbers.
In his draft year of 2019, Serong, who is so clean with the ball and makes great decisions, averaged 130 KFC SuperCoach points at the under-18 carnival and 123 for Gippsland in the NAB League.
Phantom’s verdict: I’m trying very hard to squeeze him in.
Errol Gulden (Syd)
$415,600, Fwd
2021 average: 76
Predicted average 2022: 95
The young Swan’s first two games at AFL level will go down in KFC SuperCoach folklore.
Gulden had 21 disposals, three goals, three goal assists and 139 points on debut against the Lions in Round 1, before following it up with 22 disposals, 11 score involvements and 136 points week later.
The teenager gradually fell away after that, before spending time on the sidelines with a stress reaction in his foot.
But he returned late in the year and posted another big KFC SuperCoach ton against the Dockers in Round 19. Again, there was no huge possession tally – this time 23.
It’s what Gulden does with the ball, and where he wins it, that counts. In his first year, the skilful left-footer rated elite for inside 50s, effective kicks, intercept possessions and goal assists as a forward.
And it’s been that way for a while – Gulden has always been what some call a Champion Data player.
He posted scores of 168, 131 and 105 in his three NAB League games in his draft year and went 245, 177 and 149 at the national under-16 carnival the previous season. Across those six matches, he averaged 30 disposals.
Even if his role only increases slightly in 2022, he’ll win more of the ball and, with another pre-season under his belt, Gulden should be able to maintain a level more consistently.
Phantom’s verdict: Second-year breakouts are rare but so are back-to-back 130s to start your career. This is the guy I really want to pick. But, at this early stage, there might just be too much value below him in the forwards
Luke Davies-Uniacke (NM)
$462,100, Mid
2021 average: 85
Predicted average 2022: 101
Last year, Davies-Uniacke began showing why North Melbourne took him with pick 4 in the 2017 draft on a regular basis.
After battling groin and shoulder injury in his first three seasons, the 188cm midfielder showed off his explosiveness, ball-winning ability and game-breaking traits in 20 senior matches in 2021.
It resulted in five KFC SuperCoach tons, up from just two in his first 30 appearances at the top level.
Davies-Uniacke averaged 22 disposals last season and had 38 in a huge performance against the Tigers late in the year. From Round 14 onwards, he averaged 95 KFC SuperCoach points.
But the key to the fourth-year Kangaroo taking another step in 2022 could be where he wins the ball.
In that career-best showing against Richmond, 29 of Davies-Uniacke’s possessions were uncontested. Across the year, 40.7 per cent of his possession was won in a contest – a percentage that rated just average for a midfielder.
In his draft year, the now 22-year-old recorded a contested-possession rate of 48.3 per cent. He then won 59.6 per cent of his footy in a contest in his first VFL season for North Melbourne in 2018. It was a similar story in four reserves games a year later – 52 per cent.
With a consistent year under his belt, Davies Uniacke could win more of the ball in 2022 – and more of it in contest, resulting in another KFC SuperCoach spike.
Phantom’s verdict: One of those players where you can just see it by watching him. And the numbers are there, too. But there are also plenty of numbers in the North Melbourne midfield mix.
Tom Green (GWS)
$430,000, Mid
2021 average: 79
Predicted average 2022: 100
You knew it was coming.
Fine, I will admit that I was … a year too early.
Dropped after one round, played forward, or sat on the bench for long periods, when he was picked and sent back to the VFL to tally 41 disposals and 189 points in June. It was an interesting year for Green.
But his best was still brilliant for a 20-year-old in his second season in the competition.
The tall midfielder had at least 22 disposals and 10 contested possessions in nine games to post KFC SuperCoach scores of 88, 111, 104, 71, 123, 98, 92, 70 119.
And Green, who is still the Champion Data contested possession record holder at junior level, spent more than 76 per cent of time on the field in just two of those matches.
Phantom’s verdict: I’m back onboard the Tom Green train – this time for a third-year breakout. But I haven’t yet found space for him.
Harry Schoenberg (Adel)
$390,200, Mid
2021 average: 72
Predicted average 2022: 90
The third-year Crow revealed earlier this summer his main focus over the pre-season was “just to get fitter and be able to play more midfield minutes”.
His words, not mine.
But Schoenberg’s growth as a midfielder started in the second-half of last season, with the 20-year-old averaging 22 disposals from Round 15 onwards after his centre bounce attendance increased by 15 per cent after the Crows’ Round 14 bye.
These numbers are more impressive given he played 72 per cent game-time or less in five of those nine matches.
Schoenberg, who averaged 128 points at junior level, posted three consecutive 90-point scores between Rounds 18 and 20, before breaking through for the second KFC SuperCoach ton of his career in the final game of the season.
The 115-point score, on the back of 24 disposals, 10 contested possessions, 10 score involvements, eight tackles and six clearances, again, proved he has multiple scoring avenues.
His 10.9 for the year is also an impressive feat.
But there are numbers of concern. Schoenberg’s nine clangers in the Round 21 Showdown meant a 31-disposal game resulted in just 68 points. And, overall, his disposal efficiency of 67.2 is rated below average.
Phantom’s verdict: Next step? Yes, I think so. Full-blow breakout in KFC SuperCoach? I’m still deciding.
Hayden Young (Freo)
$418,400, Def
2021 average: 77
Predicted average 2022: 95
After recovering from an early-season injury, the attacking defender made an outstanding return – at all levels.
Young posted KFC SuperCoach scores of 100 and 109 in the WAFL before finishing with 13 disposals and 54 points in his return to the senior side in Round 19.
But it didn’t take long for the elite left-footer to make his mark, averaging 19 disposals, seven intercepts, seven marks and 98 KFC SuperCoach points in the final four games of the year.
Young, who passed three figures in each of his 12 NAB League appearances in his draft year, on his way to a 129-point average, scored a KFC SuperCoach ton in games 10 and 13 at AFL level.
He has midfield traits, and could very well end up there, but he’ll be the go-to man across half-back for the Dockers for a while yet.
Phantom’s verdict: It’s an awkward price, but there is plenty of value here. Very, very high on the pre-season watchlist.
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