KFC SuperCoach 2022: Late mail for Round 3 plus Investor Daniel Begala’s trade advice

Jack Macrae has scored under 120 — yes, this isn’t a drill. These are the best KFC SuperCoach captaincy options to get almost 30 per cent of teams out of a Round 3 bind.

The unthinkable has happened.

Jack Macrae didn’t score 125.

For the first time this season, most KFC SuperCoach teams have to think seriously about their captaincy choice rather than just using a non-playing loophole.

Macrae finished with 92 points against Sydney after only having one disposal in the last quarter - his lowest KFC SuperCoach score since Round 18, 2020 and the lowest in full-length quarters since Round 11, 2019.

More than 28 per cent of teams opted for Macrae as VC, an understandable move after his hot start to 2022.

Here’s where you should be considering putting your Round 3 captaincy now:

Lachie Neale is a great fallback captain this round.

LACHIE NEALE $543k MID

The Brownlow medallist is the No. 1 choice for captaincy this round after monstering Essendon. David Noble discussed midweek the possibility of paying Neale close attention, but who would bet against him going big again against North? Neale’s last three scores against the Roos 156, 134 and 140 and if he goes close to those numbers he’ll be above $600k in Round 4.

CHRISTIAN PETRACCA $606k MID

Gun midfielders have annihilated Essendon in the first two rounds and the Bombers will be missing Zach Merrett on Friday night. Patrick Dangerfield scored 155 in Round 1 against the Bombers and Neale amassed 198 last round. There’s arguably no player in the form Petracca has been in the opening two rounds and we all know his incredible scoring ceiling. If Essendon lets Petracca run riot like it did Neale last week, he could score anything.

LACHIE WHITFIELD $502k DEF-MID

Yes, you read that right. The most traded premium of the round (-16.2 per cent) per cent of teams should be a contender for your captaincy this round. Why? If we know anything about KFC SuperCoach, it’s that the fantasy Gods don’t look kindly upon those who trade premiums - although Max Gawn Tim English was an exception on Thursday night. Whitfield only scored 32 against Gold Coast last year but that was from three disposals due to being concussed early. The season before, he had 29 disposals and 13 marks against the Suns. If you need a POD captain, he’s your man.

TOUK MILLER $677k MID

If Macrae and Touk Miller both don’t hit the 125-point captaincy threshold in the same round, most KFC SuperCoach teams will be stunned. There’s still the prospect of a Matt De Boer tag, but in the first two GWS matches this year he’s played more as a defensive stopper. All signs point to Miller being Macrae’s greatest threat as the No. 1 scoring midfielder this year and he posted 143 points in his last outing against the Giants. He should be a safe bet for a 120-150.

JACK STEELE $685k MID

Applying the same theory as Whitfield, no one will be surprised if the KFC SuperCoach Gods punish more than four per cent of teams who have traded Steele. He comes up against a Richmond midfield missing Dustin Martin and Dion Prestia this round. The Tigers are notorious for giving up huge scores to opposition midfielders and halfback flankers. Steele has posted triple figures against the Tigers in his last three games against them, including a 132 last year.

PATRICK CRIPPS $454k MID

It would be a huge result for almost 20 per cent of coaches who have jumped on Cripps if he could maintain his incredible start against Hawthorn. Cripps hasn’t moved this well since 2019 yet he still managed a score of 149 against the Hawks two seasons ago. His career average of 104 against Hawthorn isn’t captaincy material but on current form that number should be a walk in the park. He’s a good get-out option if you need a skipper playing on Sunday.

PREUSS SELECTION FORCES STRATEGY RETHINK

Is the cheap ruck strategy back on?

Leon Cameron has confirmed Braydon Preuss ($204,700 RUC) will play his first game as a Giant against Gold Coast on Saturday. Preuss will ruck solo after the Giants dropped Matthew Flynn.

Preuss played alongside Flynn in the AAMI Community Series and scored 102 KFC SuperCoach points. He was also suspended for a week after a dangerous tackle on Brodie Grundy in that match and returned last week in the VFL, where he had 21 disposals and scored 140 SuperCoach points.

“Preussy will play, so he gets his opportunity, he gets his first game in Giants colours,” Cameron said on Thursday.

MORE: SEE ALL THE ROUND 3 TEAMS HERE

“It’s been a long time waiting because of some of the challenges we’ve had with injuries but he’ll play this weekend, he played really well last week.

“I think people forget he had back surgery in the off-season so it’s taken us a while to build him up, he’s now had three games plus a good couple of months of training and we expect him to step up to the plate.”

While some KFC SuperCoaches are worried about the form of premium ruckman Max Gawn, it would be a brave move to trade Preuss in now for just his 19th AFL game, and first since 2020 – although, amazingly, 68 people have made the swap.

We will get two games worth of data before his price changes to decide if he’s a must-have this year.

Braydon Preuss will play his first game for the Giants in round 3. Picture: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

ROOKIES TO THE RESCUE, HAYES HEADACHE

Port Adelaide will blood another fresh face this week and he could be an ideal pick for KFC SuperCoach.

Mature-age recruit Jed McEntee ($123,900 FWD/MID) will play his second AFL game in Friday night’s Showdown against the Crows.

The 21-year-old, who was recruited in last year’s mid-season draft, made one very brief appearance last season as the medical sub, scoring 3 points.

He scored 58 KFC SuperCoach points in a pre-season game, but his real value could be in his dual-position flexibility if you can find a spot for him on your midfield bench – after he’s played two games, of course.

“We have to be creative as we possibly can be (in the absence of a number of key players). We need to make some change and put some different ability in the team. We’ll bring in a couple newer players for us in Mayes and McEntee, so we’ll mix and match a little there,” Power coach Ken Hinkley said on Thursday.

In more good rookie news, Essendon coach Ben Rutten has confirmed Nic Martin ($102,400 FWD) will come straight back into the Bombers line-up after he missed round 2 due to health and safety protocols.

And Hawthorn named both Josh Ward and Connor MacDonald on the field in its squad to face Carlton on Sunday.

Nic Martin scored 114 KFC SuperCoach points on debut. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Can Jack Hayes play alongside two other ruckmen? Picture: Michael Willson / AFL Photos via Getty Images)

But St Kilda is dealing with a selection headache over first-year sensation Jack Hayes ($102,400 RUC/FWD) with the return of Paddy Ryder against Richmond on Sunday.

On Thursday evening Ryder was named in a forward pocket and Hayes on an extended interchange bench in a 25-man squad that will be trimmed to 22 on Friday.

“We are going to have a look at it (playing Hayes, Ryder and Rowan Marshall). We had a little bit of an experiment here today with being taller and smaller. We will finalise that today. It’s going to be touch and go either way,” coach Brett Ratten said.

“Jack’s put his best foot forward and played some really good footy for our footy club and the players love playing with him so we will see how that pans out.”

Hayes is the fourth-most selected player in KFC SuperCoach, featuring in more than 74 per cent of teams.

In other selection news, Lachie Weller ($400,300 MID/FWD) will return for Gold Coast after missing round 2 due to health and safety protocols.

The running defender trained strongly today.

GOV GONE

Mitch McGovern’s brief KFC SuperCoach career appears to be over.

McGovern appealed as a mid-price option after a switch to defence over summer which allowed him to showcase his intercept marking strengths.

But after a disappointing score in round 2 he will now miss at least a month after being diagnosed with a grade one hamstring injury.

“Mitch has had a really strong start to the season, off the back of a mountain of work he put in over the summer,” Carlton head of football Brad Lloyd said.

“This injury obviously isn’t ideal for Mitch but given the strong base he’s built for himself over the last few months, it gives him the best possible platform to launch into his rehab and return to the side in about a month.

Mitch McGovern is out with a hamstring injury. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

WILD WEST WARNING

If you have Fremantle or West Coast players in your KFC SuperCoach team or are relying on an Eagle not playing in round 3 to make a loophole work, you could have a few more anxious moments this weekend.

Both clubs have been given permission to hold back on releasing their teams for Sunday’s western derby as the Eagles deal with their Covid crisis.

West Coast made a massive 14 changes last round and fielded four top-up players including Stefan Giro and Brayden Ainsworth.

With a number of players scheduled to exit health and safety protocols in coming days, the AFL announced on Thursday both the Eagles and Dockers will release their teams at 2.30pm Saturday local time – 5.30pm AEDT.

The clubs will not release extended squads on Thursday or Friday, with the final 22 plus four emergences to come out on Saturday.

SuperCoach Investor reveals his Round 3 trade secrets

– Daniel Begala

The market is ablaze with activity and there’s no time for complacency as we hit the most important week of the KFC SuperCoach calendar.

It’s earnings season at the KFC SuperCoach Stock Exchange and asset prices, big and small, are set to skyrocket as the curtains draw on round 3 of AFL action.

If you blink, you’ll miss it.

Our resident investment expert Daniel Begala casts his eyes across the key strategies and decisions coaches must consider as we approach round 3 and the start of league matches.

REBALANCING YOUR PORTFOLIO

You may have spent hours, if not weeks, tinkering with the composition of your KFC SuperCoach portfolio.

Now is the first opportunity you’ll have to assess the success of your initial strategy by referring to the anticipated “swings” in market value of your portfolio of players.

Have you made every post a winner with most, if not all assets, forecast to rise at the conclusion of Round 3?

Or, like most investors – including yours truly – do you have a portfolio replete with some assets that have outperformed in rounds 1 and 2 only to be offset by premiums who have grossly underperformed?

Unless you’re ranked among the top 10-20 sides, I’d say that most investors would fall into the latter category and be positioned to make some season-defining trade decisions prior to Round 3 lockout.

This week – more than any other – is the most pivotal time of the year to rebalance your portfolio.

What does that mean? Buying and selling players for the purpose of redeploying your “capital” (i.e. salary cap) to generate enhanced returns for investors.

Lachie Whitfield is causing headaches for KFC SuperCoaches. Picture: Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images

For example, you might determine your team is “overweight” with ruckmen (investing too much of the salary cap in that area) and could better deploy the capital towards an underpriced premium and/or rookie by “shorting” Max Gawn ($657,400 RUC) to the likes of Tim English ($482,600 RUC/FWD) or Jarrod Witts ($380,300 RUC).

My team The Begala Brigade is dealing with two blue chip assets, Gawn and Lachie Whitfield ($502,600 DEF/MID), whose initial dividends have been less than desirable.

They are were both popular pre-season selections among the KFC SuperCoach fraternity, but could be available to the general public at a substantially discounted price if their dividend payout ratios don’t increase rapidly.

My strategy – which has paid off in FY20 and FY21 – is to “short” the high-end premiums destined for price depreciation and take “long” positions (i.e. buy) on those forecasted to appreciate in value such as Tristan Xerri ($208,200 FWD) and Jake Bowey ($265,600 DEF).

It is an aggressive tactic, but with the right contingencies in place, can turbo-charge your team value, overall rank and ability to capture the scoring trends early.

PRIORISITING INVESTMENTS

Trades are a finite reserve and so too are trade boosts (of which we have five).

This week, however, is not for the faint-hearted and one where I wholeheartedly envisage the trade boost being warranted to supercharge your side and set the wheels in motion for FY22, particularly if you’re off to a rocky start.

There have been a series of breathtaking performances in rounds 1 and 2 that have certainly captured the imaginations of investors led by the likes of Patrick Cripps ($454,800 MID), George Hewett ($399,000 MID/DEF) and Isaac Heeney ($454,500 FWD) – all of which are heavily discounted compared to their peers.

If you could, I’m sure you’d grab them all.

The only issue is that we have three trades only – if you elect to “boost” – and, most likely, limited liquidity to facilitate these acquisitions.

That is why you must prioritise your targets based on key factors including initial starting price, Break Even, sustainability of their scoring and whether they’re going to be entrenched among the top tier (i.e. top 6-8) scorers on their respective line.

Patrick Cripps has made a red-hot start to 2022. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Cripps is a prime example.

He is fully fit, a player who has maintained premium level scoring in the past and heavily discounted to other prime ball users who he has usurped with back-to-back best-on-ground efforts.

With a Break Even of -28 and price trajectory that may see him exceed $600K, Cripps is a must for all non-owners and a high priority given he’s producing dividends closer to a $700K midfielder like Jack Macrae or Touk Miller.

I may be biased as a Carlton supporter, but I think Cripps reinstates himself as a top six scorer in FY22 which is a strong motivation for trading a “speculative” asset like Cripps into your portfolio.

Another matter that is somewhat overlooked is the balance of your portfolio, so coaches, please focus your trade attention on reinforcing areas of your squad (DEF, MID, RUC or FWD) where your scoring potential – and volatility – looks to be most vulnerable.

THE BIG SHORT

A conundrum on the mind of 53 per cent of coaches is what to do with blue chip stalwart, Max Gawn.

We know this premium investment is typically slow in Round 1, however, with the rise of Luke Jackson ($389,800 RUC/FWD) and the lofty price tag – is it time we consider the “Big Short”?

Gawn is – and will always be – one of the first picked at The Begala Brigade, however, I will be robustly debating the pros/cons of his position within my portfolio.

Luke Jackson’s rise could impact Max Gawn’s output. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

The heart says “hold” and the dividends will return; however, the “brain” envisages a sea of opportunity including English and Witts that will free up a substantial amount of capital for redeployment into defence and forward lines.

If I do part ways with Gawn, I have faith that I’ll be able to regain his services – at a substantially discounted price – by manoeuvring a dual-position player, or in the event that a blue-chip asset succumbs to injury and/or health-and-safety protocols.

The jury at The Begala Brigade is still out on this move, however, I see Gawn being one of the most transacted assets on the KFC SuperCoach Stock Exchange this week.

One final note, however, is that I don’t think coaches would be in this dilemma if Gawn was able to drag down two, or, three of the contested intercept marks on the weekend – but that’s the nature of the KFC SuperCoach beast.

As always, trade well folks.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2022: Late mail for Round 3 plus Investor Daniel Begala’s trade advice