In-depth AFL preliminary final previews

Nick Daicos is back for rested Collingwood and the Carlton bandwagon is full and headed for Brisbane ahead of two blockbuster AFL preliminary finals.

Toby Greene is a matchwinner. Picture: Mark Brake/Getty Images

Second preliminary final, Gabba, Saturday, 5.15pm

Second preliminary final, Gabba, Saturday, 5.15pm

LAST TIME RD 8: Carlton 11.8 (74) def by Brisbane 15.10 (100), Marvel Stadium

WHAT TO WATCH

LIONS

CHARLIE TO WORRY BLUES

Charlie Cameron’s exceptional finals record is almost unrivalled by other small forwards, and he looms as the biggest threat to Carlton’s defence after it was exposed by the speed of Kysaiah Pickett in the second half of the semi-final.

Cameron has booted 36 goals in 17 finals at a tick above his career average, and still managed to hurt Port Adelaide with two majors despite being shut out of the first half of the qualifying final.

Cam Rayner wreaked havoc against the Power, but it is the All-Australian forward pocket who will trouble the Blues the most and potentially force Nic Newman back into a lockdown role.

Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

OUTSIDE GAINS

The presence of Jaspa Fletcher on a wing is a key point of difference from the Lions from their run of fruitless finals campaigns, and his combination with Callum Ah Chee will be crucial as the home side contends with the in-form trio of Blake Acres, Sam Docherty and Matt Cottrell on the outside for the Blues.

There is no expectation for Fletcher to match his stunning three-goal haul in his first final, but how the teenager carried himself in the biggest game of his career bodes well for the rest of his September campaign.

RECRUITED FOR A REASON

Josh Dunkley’s output has not yet reached the impressive level he was playing at before a calf injury sidelined him in the second half of the season, but the former Bulldog could be a game-breaker for the Lions at stoppages on Saturday.

The tough on-baller went head-to-head with Patrick Cripps to great effect when the Lions trumped the Blues in round 8, and the same assignment will likely be in store after the Carlton skipper’s heavy influence through the middle in the semi-final.

BLUES

CHARLIE’S (NOT) LITTLE HELPER

Held to just one mark inside 50 and a solitary goal by Steven May last week, Charlie Curnow will be hungry for a breakthrough performance in finals at the Gabba, and his bid for a big haul will only be helped by Harry McKay’s return from concussion.

The Coleman medallist often had to fight on his own against May and Jake Lever, and coach Michael Voss said after the game McKay’s presence would have worked wonders for the Blues’ forward mix.

Despite his goalkicking woes, McKay’s marking game is still exceptional, and keeping one of Jack Payne and Harris Andrews busy could help his partner in crime get off the leash.

Charlie Curnow will be hungry for goals. Picture: Michael Klein

WALSH AT NEW LEVEL

Sam Walsh’s semi-final performance was one of the best of his career and suggests he has put his hamstring woes well and truly behind him.

The 34-disposal, two-goal masterclass was fuelled by his extraordinary running power, and in hot Brisbane conditions he looms as the most important player on the ground for the Blues.

Walsh’s defensive work has been sublime in this finals series and he will likely be given responsibility for Hugh McCluggage, who pushed forward for a goal and three assists against the Power.

SHOULDERING THE LOAD

Can Blues vice-captain Sam Docherty repeat his second-half heroics a week after dislocating his shoulder?

The veteran was instrumental in Carlton’s late fightback to snatch the game but will doubtlessly be sore and could have to carry some structural damage in his shoulder into the match.

Fellow wingman Blake Acres is already playing with one arm after busting his shoulder earlier in the season, and Carlton fans will be holding their breath every time one of the pair flies for an overhead mark or tries to stick a tackle on Saturday.

CASUALTY LIST

LIONS

Jack Gunston (knee) test

Will Ashcroft (knee) season

BLUES

Sam Docherty (shoulder) test

PREDICTION

No side has been able to beat Brisbane at the Gabba this season, and there is no more incentive possible for the home side to defend its fort than having a Grand Final spot for the taking. It will take incredible mental fortitude for Carlton to follow on from the emotional highs of its first two wins and conquer the Lions on the road. Brisbane by 10 points.

TAB ODDS

Match: Brisbane $1.35, Carlton $3.25

Flag: Brisbane $2.75, Carlton $6.50

COLLINGWOOD v GWS GIANTS

First preliminary final, MCG, Friday 7.50pm

LAST TIME RD 9: Collingwood 18.12 (120) def GWS 7.13 (55), MCG

WHAT TO WATCH

MAGPIES

IN THE NICK OF TIME

He might collect the Brownlow Medal a few days later, but first Nick Daicos will face the greatest test of his career when he mounts a speedy comeback from a hairline fracture in his knee in the furnace of a Friday night preliminary final.

Collingwood clearly missed Daicos’ extraordinary running power and poise at the end of the home and away season, and his flexibility will give coach Craig McRae a number of tactical manoeuvres to turn to which he did not have access to without the young star.

In the game he was injured Daicos was run with to great effect by Hawthorn’s Finn Maginness, which means he will almost certainly receive a tag from Harry Perryman or Lachie Ash.

Nick Daicos tests himself at training. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

NO TAYLOR, THE CREATOR

Injured vice-captain Taylor Adams has not had the midfield minutes of previous seasons but he will be sorely missed on Friday after playing a hybrid midfield-forward role exceptionally well this season.

Adams’ 25 goal assists are eight more than his next best teammates, Scott Pendlebury and Jack Crisp, and his absence will force greater responsibility for the Magpies’ connective play onto Beau McCreery and Bobby Hill.

Nick Daicos has been deployed forward of centre this season with success and is another option to fill the void left by Adams.

BIG PIES MUST STAND TALL

Dan McStay and Brody Mihocek have a huge task ahead against the Giants’ key defensive trio of Sam Taylor, Jack Buckley and Harry Himmelberg.

Both sides rely on a deeper line of defence than other finalists and there is no doubt Collingwood’s forwards will get plenty of opportunities, but the ball must come to ground against some of the game’s best interceptors.

McStay had a rollercoaster of a night in the qualifying final – now, he has a chance to show Magpies fans his quality over four quarters.

GIANTS

IT’S TOBY TIME

Toby Greene wasn’t out there when Collingwood destroyed the Giants at the MCG in round 9, and was relatively quiet with 1.2 when he returned to the hallowed turf in the elimination final against St Kilda.

The GWS skipper and All-Australian captain will be itching to hit the scoreboard and stamp himself on the preliminary final after his electric performance against Port Adelaide.

Greene’s battle with Brayden Maynard or Isaac Quaynor will be one of the most important match-ups on Friday night.

GWS captain Toby Greene is a matchwinner. Picture: Mark Brake/Getty Images

BRIGGS’ BOYS

The Giants midfielders absolutely belted Port Adelaide at stoppages around the ground in the semi-final, and it was in no small part due to their hulking academy graduate Kieren Briggs in the ruck.

The 23-year-old stood tall against Rowan Marshall in the first final and then bullied Scott Lycett and Charlie Dixon on Saturday night, racking up the hit-outs and following up with impressive clearance work of his own.

Briggs has a chance to inflict the same treatment on Mason Cox and Darcy Cameron, whose form has been patchy in the second half of this season, and he looms as the key to helping Green, Kelly and Coniglio gaining the ascendancy in the middle.

NEED FOR SPEED

Toby Bedford and Brent Daniels were missing when Port thumped the Giants in round 22, and were the key personnel difference in the rematch as GWS flipped the earlier result on its head.

Both make excellent decisions by foot in attack and apply fierce defensive pressure, complementing their captain and key position pair Jesse Hogan and Jake Riccardi beautifully.

The duo looked right at home on the MCG in the elimination final and could cause a lot of damage if the Giants’ ball movement is quick enough to get them involved.

CASUALTY LIST

MAGPIES

Nick Daicos (knee) test

Taylor Adams (hamstring) 1-2 weeks

GIANTS

Adam Kennedy (knee) season

PREDICTION

The Giants will enter the preliminary final feeling bulletproof after yet another win on the road, but no team is better placed to tackle the Orange Tsunami than the Magpies, who will have no fear of the occasion after two extraordinary seasons and will not allow a repeat of 2019 on Friday night. Collingwood by 18

TAB ODDS

Match: Collingwood $1.55, GWS $2.45

Flag: Collingwood $2.40, GWS $7

Originally published as In-depth AFL preliminary final previews