Hawthorn forward line analysis: Will off-season recruits Mabior Chol, Jack Ginnivan pay off?
Hawthorn’s forward line will look drastically different this year after an influx of talent during the off-season. But, will the recruiting reap the rewards the Hawks want? History suggests no.
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Hawthorn’s list strategists had a difficult question they needed to answer in the off-season.
How much change is too much?
The club, which has gone through a rebuild in its two years under outstanding young coach Sam Mitchell, looks set to take the AFL by storm in the next few seasons, with an abundance of young talent that defeated both of 2023’s grand finalists in Collingwood and Brisbane.
But in the off-season trade period, the Hawks made a major change in their list’s DNA, recruiting Jack Ginnivan from Collingwood, Mabior Chol from Gold Coast and Nick Watson in the draft,
Tyler Brockman (West Coast) Brandon Ryan (Brisbane) and Jacob Koschitzke (Richmond) moved on.
Jack Gunston also returned to the fold after a one-year stint in Brisbane, meaning Hawthorn’s forward line would have four new targets.
Throw in Blake Hardwick, who has trained forward all pre-season, as well Massimo D’Ambrosio, who has been floated as a forward option, and the Hawks look completely different forward of the ball.
Mitch Lewis and Luke Breust remain and together will likely kick the lion’s share of the goals, but Dylan Moore is tipped to push into midfield to help make room for the new look forward line.
But is bringing in five forward options going to improve Hawthorn’s scoring rate after the Hawks ranked equal-second-last for total goals kicked in 2023 with just 243 for the season?
In the past 10 years, only 10 players have changed clubs and been inside the league’s top 20 goal scorers the next year.
Ollie Henry was the most recent to do so, with his tally of 41 goals for Geelong last season enough to finish equal 15th for the year.
Tyson Stengle (53 goals in 2022), Joe Daniher (46 goals in 2021), Jeremy Cameron (39 goals in 2021), Dan Butler (29 goals in 2020), Tom Lynch (63 goals in 2019) and Sam Lloyd (38 goals in 2019) have been the seven players since 2016 to accomplish the feat.
Steve Johnson kicked 43 goals in 2016, his first season at the Giants, while Buddy Franklin won the Coleman Medal in his first year at the Swans in 2014 with 79 goals (67 in the home-and-away season), with new Crow Eddie Betts not far behind on 51 majors for the year.
Instead, recent history has shown a forward has typically experiences a dip in his first season at a new club, before becoming more proficient in front of goals in the following years.
Port Adelaide’s Charlie Dixon kicked 30 goals in his first year for the Power in 2016 before booting 49 majors in 2017, Josh Bruce kicked four goals in 10 games in his first year at the Saints in 2014 before kicking 50 majors in 2015, and when he moved again to the Western Bulldogs he kicked 14 goals in 17 games in 2020 before slotting 48 goals in 2021.
Mitch Lewis is still expected to be Hawthorn’s major key forward, and will likely register 50 or more goals in 2024 if he can remain injury free.
Lewis missed the start of the 2023 campaign with a strained ACL injury but still played an equal career-high games tally of 15 matches.
But with all the moving pieces in the forward line, the help Lewis gets will likely be sporadic at best, and while the 33-year-old Breust kicked 47 goals last year he cannot be expected to maintain that level going forward.
The Hawks may get an uptick in their scoring output due to the increased quality in their best 23, however it would be optimistic to expect that any of their forward-line recruits can defy history and have a huge impact on the scoreboard.
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