Glenn McFarlane examines North Melbourne and Hawthorn’s rebuilds and which club is closer to its next premiership

Both several years into rebuilds, North Melbourne and Hawthorn’s next premierships appear a long way off. GLENN MCFARLANE examines how both clubs are tracking and the keys to their re-emergence as contenders.

Hawthorn North Melbourne rebuild art

In the infancy of Hawthorn’s previous rebuild two decades ago the club’s then list manager forecast the “next premiership team” in a whiteboard presentation to the players.

It was early 2005, and as Alastair Clarkson was starting his tenure as Hawthorn coach, respected list boss Chris Pelchen unveiled what he believed would be the group to take the club to its next flag — with one jarring omission and a few positional question marks.

For more than a few in the room, it was a stark, sledgehammer moment. Shane Crawford’s name wasn’t there.

There was no magnet for the Hawks superstar who had been the backbone of the club for a decade as their best player and one-time captain, and his absence shook the rest of the players in the room.

If Crawf wasn’t there, was anyone safe? And how long was the rebuild going to take?

“It was confronting,” Pelchen, who was close to Crawford, recalled this week.

“I didn’t have him (Crawford) on the board. He actually came up to me after the presentation and said ‘Pelcs, my name is not there’.

“I said to him it wasn’t about playing favourites; it was about taking Hawthorn to its next premiership. We actually thought the (premiership) window was 2011, not 2008.”

Shane Crawford’s name was left off Hawthorn’s planning for its next premiership in 2004.

As it transpired, Crawford played his 305th and final game — at 34 — in Hawthorn’s surprise 2008 premiership, ambushing red-hot favourites Geelong.

His name might have not been on the whiteboard that day back in 2004, but plenty of others were, as the Hawks’ rebuild graduated with a breakthrough flag in 2008, followed by a hat-trick of premierships (2013-2015).

“We were as close as you could be (to predicting a time frame for a successful rebuild), but you can only judge these things historically,” Pelchen said.

“I don’t think anybody at club level or even outside can be cute enough to pinpoint what year you are going to do it (complete a rebuild).”

In a week in which Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge described rebuilding as “a myth” in modern football, we are about to get a good look on Sunday at Marvel Stadium at how the 2024 Hawks and their “rebuild rivals” North Melbourne are faring in their list overhauls.

It will be an insight into the future as much as an audit on the present.

Alastair Clarkson has a huge job on his hands to lift North Melbourne out of the doldrums. Picture: Sarah Reed/Getty Images

Pelchen will be watching from afar as North Melbourne coach Alastair Clarkson and Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell — two key figures in that Hawks’ meeting room 20 years ago — compete to end their winless starts to the season.

In a round of intoxicating AFL clashes, Crawford says this Kangaroos-Hawks clash is arguably as interesting as any of them to see which of the two teams is best placed in their rebuild.

And Kangaroos dual premiership player and Fox Footy expert David King says there is far more at stake than the four points on offer.

Asked which of the two clubs is best placed to win a premiership first, Pelchen says there is not yet a definitive answer, but suspects the Kangaroos might be best placed in this race.

“There is a reality to the situation with North Melbourne and Hawthorn, you cannot live in denial,” Pelchen said.

“I’m not here to criticise Luke (Beveridge), but to say that rebuilds don’t work is an incorrect interpretation of where North Melbourne and Hawthorn are at now.”

Pelchen, who helped build successful lists at Hawthorn and Port Adelaide, said the Hawks had the better list right now, but believed the Kangaroos are better placed long-term.

“North Melbourne is behind Hawthorn in terms of their competitiveness, but I think their list is further advanced in elite talent,” Pelchen said.

“Hawthorn can bounce back sooner than North Melbourne, but right at the moment, between the two, I would back the Kangaroos with their rebuilding.

“Hawthorn need to address what they are bringing into the club. They have brought in some players to improve their competitiveness – and that’s not necessarily wrong – but it can sometimes come at the expense of the long-term development of their player list.

“North has fallen further, hence the need for them to rebuild is absolutely paramount and it needs to be unwavering.

Chris Pelchen believes North Melbourne has a more talented list than Hawthorn. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

“Hawthorn haven’t fallen as low, despite how bad they were last week (against Gold Coast). They are more competitive than North Melbourne right now, but I don’t believe they have got as much elite talent as the Kangaroos have in that perspective.”

The young talent North Melbourne has added via the draft in the past few seasons – even if the list is still lopsided – gives Pelchen confidence in their pathway forward.

“It is only some buds and with players like (Harry) Sheezel, (Colby) McKercher and (George) Wardlaw, they have outstanding talent,” he said. “They will continue to build on that foundation, but they have the midfield nucleus for the next decade or more.

“They are elite players who complement each other. Wardlaw is in and under, McKercher is a good outside player, then you have Sheezel who does both.

“The difference is that North has fallen further for longer and they are not coming off relatively recent success – and I am talking about the last 10 years with that – which means it is a lot more challenging for them to stay the course.

“But with a coach like Alastair, who has had to do a rebuild at Hawthorn, and with what looks like the resolve of the whole club, they seem to be going in the right direction.

“They (North Melbourne) have genuine issues and challenges in the key position space.

“Outside of (Nick) Larkey, they don’t have a (key position) A grader. Whether it is (Tristan) Xerri in the ruck or the pressure on (Charlie) Comben down back, they are working on the issues. They are going to have to make do with some of those positions over the next two to three years, but ultimately they are on the right track.”

TIME TO MOVE HARRY

David King understands the frustration of North Melbourne supporters, given the club hasn’t played finals since 2016 and has won only 12 games since the onset of Covid, with six coaches (including caretaker coaches or stand-ins) since the start of 2019.

But he hopes the club, and the fans, can stick fat.

“North fans are starting to get frustrated again, unfortunately,” King said.

He says both coaches — Clarkson and Mitchell — would see this clash as a winnable game in a season where few are as evident or obvious.

King knows the young Kangaroos are coming from a long way back, but he sees a few good signs that could help drive them into the future.

Part of that revolves around his desire to see last year’s Rising Star Sheezel to play “centre forward” instead of spending part of his time running off half back.

“Sheezel is their best player, and the best player in almost every other team is generally playing centre-forward, so maybe it is time for them to get him in there,” King said.

“I think Clarko has prioritised (the midfield as) Wardlaw, LDU (Luke Davies-Uniacke), (Tom) Powell and hopefully Sheezel in the next couple of weeks.

“They need Sheezel in there.”

The Kangaroos have the lowest percentage in the competition – 56.5 per cent – having conceded the most points this season (611) with the leakiest defence their greatest concern.

In contrast, Hawthorn has kicked the lowest tally this season – 319 points – despite bringing in Mabior Chol and Jack Ginnivan via trade and Nick Watson (now out injured) in the first round of the draft.

David King wants to see Harry Sheezel in midfield. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

King said part of Hawthorn’s problem this season has centred on its midfield, which took some big steps last season but has looked out of sorts so far in 2024.

“The Hawks’ star factor players in the midfield have been off this year,” King said. “(James) Worpel has had a terrific start to the year, but without him, the mids have been off.”

“I don’t know what has happened to Jai Newcombe. (Conor) Nash has been just OK.

“Look, I am not concerned about who wins or loses this game, in terms of it affecting their rebuilds. It doesn’t affect any time line, or anything like that.

“But I get the feeling the coach (Clarkson) would have circled this game when the fixture came out, and I reckon (Mitchell) would have been the same.”

THE COACHING EDGE

Shane Crawford will forever have a connection to the two coaches on Sunday.

He was a long-time teammate of Mitchell and flew to Melbourne during the week to be a part of the Hawks coach’s induction to the club’s hall of fame.

He is also close to Clarkson, having been coached by him in the final four seasons of his career.

But he knows there is more than a little edge to the former Hawks coach and his premiership skipper.

“Knowing these coaches well, even though Clarko and Mitch have shared so much success and have got respect for each other, they will want to knock each other off,” Crawford said.

“We know the Hawks have had a shaky start but they are still young and there is still a lot of belief around the football club.

“They will both believe they can win it, and it will mean a bit extra to them.

“I think both clubs are doing it the right way. They are not aiming to win a premiership this year or even next year. They are working towards achieving sustained success.

“Neither of them wants to just patch up a side to be competitive. They want to be contenders in the next three to five years.”

Alastair Clarkson and Sam Mitchell are both chasing their first wins of 2024. Picture: Tony Gough

Part of the edge sits around the edge between the coaches, which was fast-tracked when Hawthorn instituted a contentious succession plan in late 2021, which ultimately led Clarkson to depart the club earlier than intended.

Mitchell played down the edge this week as he looked ahead to his second clash with Clarkson in the coaches’ box.

“Every week you look at the opposition team, you look at the opposition coach, what they like to do, how they like the game played – and this week’s no different,” Mitchell said.

“I’m sure (Clarkson) is looking at our stuff, looking at my theories, and I look at his. It’s the same as every week.”

Clarkson said Sunday’s game gave the Kangaroos a chance to measure itself against a like-minded team rather than early season matches against GWS, Fremantle, Carlton, Brisbane Lions and Geelong.

“For both of our clubs it’s all about the exposure to the young guys and where we’re going to be in two or three years’ time, rather than necessarily where we’ll be after the result of Sunday’s game,” Clarkson said.

“We’re disappointed we’re 0-5, but probably to the wider footy world there’s no great surprise.

“We’ve come up against some really, really good sides … So what we’re looking at over the next five or six weeks is playing against some sides that will give us a better indication of where we’re at.

“One of those sides is Hawthorn, who are also 0-5 and in the same sort of phase as us with trying to get a lot of time and exposure into their younger players.

“This probably represents our first chance to play against a like-minded side in terms of age profile and experience, so it will be a really good challenge.”

STAYING THE COURSE

Pelchen says the importance of staying the course remains the key to a successful rebuild.

He insists that is as important as ever for Hawthorn and North Melbourne, given the 2028 introduction of the Tasmanian Devils, which will further compromise future drafts.

“Clubs do need to have a deliberate plan, it has to be considered and it has to be understood most importantly within the club, but also sharing the key elements of the plan with those external to the club,” Pelchen said.

“You need to take your supporter base and the sponsors on the journey with you. But most importantly you need to sustain it and stay the course.

“Most clubs will start the plan (to rebuild). But few clubs actually finish the plan, either because of external criticism or internal pressure, whether that is the sponsors saying ‘we are spending money at your club, we need success’, or a board member starting to feel uneasy about their own position.

“It is either that pressure (halting a rebuild) or it is people making mistakes. No one can safeguard against people making mistakes, no matter what business you are in.”

Jack Ginnivan is yet to taste victory as a Hawk. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

So can the Hawks and the Kangaroos hold their nerve as the continued teething problems this year and beyond?

Crawford says both coaches won’t falter in that regard … given their resolve and determination for success.

“They are both committed to it and doing it the right way,” he said.

“If you think about it, this is what Sam Mitchell has done all of his career. He played with courage and an edge during his career and he is coaching the same way. He won’t deviate and neither will Clarko.”

Originally published as Glenn McFarlane examines North Melbourne and Hawthorn’s rebuilds and which club is closer to its next premiership