Every club’s run home, final ladder position predicted with nine rounds to go
After a couple of huge results over the weekend, the complexion of the finals race has changed again. See the clubs that make the cut and who misses out in our ladder predictor here.
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There are nine rounds to go — but are there only nine teams in the finals race?
And who will finish top-four?
We’ve taken a good look at every club’s run home in search of some answers.
SCROLL DOWN FOR THE FULL PREDICTED LADDER
1. COLLINGWOOD
Played: 14, Won: 12, Lost: 2, Percentage: 135
The Magpies have already won six games in a row and have a prime opportunity to continue growing that streak in coming weeks. The flag favourites meet bottom-of-the-table West Coast this week, followed by a struggling Carlton. There are only two more interstate trips remaining, which will be tests against Gold Coast and Adelaide. Craig McRae’s side has already beaten fellow finals contenders Fremantle (away), Brisbane (away) and Hawthorn this season. Add it all up and there’s every chance that Collingwood gets to 20 wins — equalling its 2011 result.
2. BRISBANE LIONS
Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 4, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 113.4
Many had been viewing Collingwood as a standout premiership favourite last week, until the Lions went ‘bang’ in a clash between two top-four titans at the Cattery. Brisbane’s 41-point win over Geelong at GMHBA Stadium last Friday night was scary as they combined a strong team defence with slick ball movement and no shortage of avenues to goal in attack. The result saw Chris Fagan’s side take back possession of a top-two spot on the ladder and they are every chance to stay there despite some hurdles in the last eight weeks after the bye. The Lions lost to Collingwood by 52 points at the Gabba in round 6 but have already beaten fellow double-up opponents the Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn this year.
3. GEELONG
Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 127.5
The Cats get a mulligan for their poor performance against reigning premier Brisbane Lions heading into the bye. It was un-Geelong-like to suffer a 41-point loss on their home turf at GMHBA Stadium and butcher the footy around the ground and in front of goal like they did. But from here, the Cats enjoy the most favourable run home of any side. They still have two games to come against 17th placed Richmond, as well as matches against fellow struggling sides including St Kilda and Essendon. GWS in round 18 is the only genuine finals contender left to face and will be a challenge given the Cats lost to the Giants by four points in a home game in round 9. If Geelong can win all eight games or Brisbane has more than one slip up, a top-two finish is still within reach. But it is not entirely in the Cats’ hands now.
4. ADELAIDE
Played: 14, Won: 9, Lost: 5, Percentage: 135.2
Coming off the bye, the Crows should swoop on a battling Richmond this week as they continue to firm up a top-four spot. Five of the last eight games after that are at Adelaide Oval, which provides a great opportunity for Matthew Nicks’ side. Adelaide has gone 7-1 at its home ground this season, its only loss coming to Geelong by 19 points in Gather Round. The Crows have a minimal injury list and an impressive profile, ranking No. 3 for points for and No. 2 for points against. A first finals appearance since 2017 is coming this September and this is a side which could cause some damage when that time comes.
5. HAWTHORN
Played: 14, Won: 9, Lost: 5, Percentage: 111.6
The Hawks nabbed a crucial three-point win over Adelaide heading into their bye last weekend, which should help ensure that they play finals this season. That said, it’s not an easy final nine weeks by any stretch. Fremantle (away), Adelaide (away), Collingwood and Brisbane (away) will present some big challenges for a side which likely still needs at least five more wins to lock in a September berth. Hawthorn won seven of its last nine home-and-away matches after the bye in 2024, but they’re not looking quite the same side at the moment.
6. FREMANTLE
Played: 14, Won: 9, Lost: 5, Percentage: 110
The Dockers have won five games in a row as one of the form teams of the competition. They have beaten top-eight sides GWS and Gold Coast during that period, but will need some more scalps in the run home if they are to make the finals cut. Away games against Sydney, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs look like being tripping hazards, while home games against Hawthorn and Brisbane won’t be easy either. The clash against the Hawks in round 18 looms as a genuine eight-point game between two sides fighting for one of the last spots in the top-eight. If the Dockers can’t pinch that, their percentage of 110 – the second-worst of the current top-nine sides – could be a problem come the end of the year.
7. GWS GIANTS
Played: 15, Won: 9, Lost: 6, Percentage: 107.6
The Giants were above the ledger at 7-6 a fortnight ago, but were far from setting the world on fire after dropping a home game against Port Adelaide and just scraping over the line by three points against Richmond. Since then, Adam Kingsley’s side has got itself back on track with wins over fellow top-eight sides Brisbane and Gold Coast. The Giants fought back from as much as 29 points down in the second quarter to topple the Suns on Sunday, scoring over 100 points for the second time in as many weeks and the seventh time this season. There’s an opportunity to give the percentage a boost against West Coast off the bye and there are only three more top-eight sides to play in the run home. So, expect a third-straight finals appearance this year.
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played: 14, Won: 8, Lost: 6, Percentage: 133.4
The Bulldogs swept aside Richmond by 79 points on Sunday, giving their already healthy percentage another boost of 5.7 per cent. Key forward Sam Darcy has booted eight goals in two weeks since making his return from injury and captain Marcus Bontempelli is airborne through the middle of the ground. The Bulldogs only have two more interstate trips to come, starting with a huge clash against Sydney at the SCG on Friday night. Luke Beveridge’s side faces four top-nine opponents in the run home, but gets Adelaide, GWS and Fremantle all at Marvel Stadium.
9. GOLD COAST
Played: 13, Won: 8, Lost: 5, Percentage: 120.1
The Suns have lost three on the trot — all against current top-eight sides in GWS, Geelong and Fremantle. Giving up a 29-point lead to go down to the Giants on Sunday was far from ideal. But we can’t forget that they still have one or two games in hand over the rest of the sides currently above them on the ladder. Gold Coast meets only four top-eight teams in its last 10 games. It gets a young and injury-hit Essendon twice, along with matches against fellow bottom-six sides Richmond and Melbourne. If the Suns are serious they’ll win at least six more games, which should lock them in for their first ever finals appearance.
10. CARLTON
Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 8, Percentage: 105.1
Put a fork in them — the Blues are cooked. Giving up eight unanswered goals against North Melbourne at the MCG on Saturday afternoon on their way to an 11-point defeat was the final nail in the coffin for a side which would have still held hopes of making a charge to September last week. What more can you say about arguably 2025’s most disappointing side? Carlton’s only wins this season have come against West Coast (twice), North Melbourne, Geelong, St Kilda and Essendon. There has been an eye-catching quarter here and there, but a complete inability to string good quarters or games together. Michael Voss’ side still faces five top-nine opponents in the last nine weeks, so expect the scrutiny to intensify on those at Princes Park.
11. SYDNEY
Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 8, Percentage: 92.2
The Swans have looked a little sharper over the past fortnight, racking up wins over Port Adelaide and Richmond. But last year’s runners up won’t be winning eight of their last nine games to make the finals cut. Even if they did win eight games to get to 14 wins, the Swans’ percentage is a mile off the pace. All that said, Sydney could help shape the eight and play the role of the disrupter if they can pinch a few upsets. Dean Cox’s side faces five top-eight sides in the run home.
12. PORT ADELAIDE
Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 8, Percentage: 84
A two-game winning streak came to an end on Saturday as Port Adelaide managed just seven goals in a 19-point loss to Sydney. There might not be many more wins to come from here. The Power face six top-nine opponents in a difficult finish to Ken Hinkley’s last season in charge. But they should be winning home games against Carlton and West Coast over the next three weeks.
13. ESSENDON
Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 8, Percentage: 77.5
The injury-hit Bombers get Sam Durham (suspension) back after the bye, while the likes of Kyle Langford (quad), Jordan Ridley (hamstring), Mason Redman (calf) and Zach Reid (hamstring) will also be in the mix to return. But it is still going to be tough for a side which has lost its past four matches on the trot. Essendon faces five top-nine teams in its last nine games, including two clashes against Gold Coast. But it’s all about the future for a side which has already used 40 players on its list this season and has rolled out 11 debutants.
14. MELBOURNE
Played: 14, Won: 5, Lost: 9, Percentage: 87.1
The Demons showed some fight to go down to Collingwood by only a point on King’s Birthday, but fell flat again against Port Adelaide heading into their bye. Too often, it’s been the same old story with Melbourne unable to put its territory wins on the scoreboard. The Demons still have five more top-nine teams to come, but will be favoured to win a couple more games against the likes of St Kilda and West Coast.
15. ST KILDA
Played: 14, Won: 5, Lost: 9, Percentage: 86.2
The Saints showed a little bit more against Collingwood on Saturday night, but have still won only two of their past 10 matches. They head to Perth this week to kick off a tough month of matches against Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong. Coach Ross Lyon has been getting increasingly prickly as the toll of a rough season continues. But there have been some positive signs for the future peppered among it.
16. NORTH MELBOURNE
Played: 14, Won: 4, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 82.5
The Kangaroos have had a good six-week patch, which has included a draw against Brisbane and wins over Richmond, West Coast and Carlton. But they will have to maintain the rage as the going gets tougher. Finals contenders Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs will be tricky assignments over the next fortnight. But North Melbourne thumped Melbourne back in round 2 and should be favoured to knock off St Kilda and Richmond. Getting to seven wins and a draw would be a solid result.
17. RICHMOND
Played: 14, Won: 3, Lost: 11, Percentage: 66.6
The Tigers took another hit with a 79-point loss to the Western Bulldogs on Sunday, making for a fifth-straight loss. That streak could well extend to the end of the year. Richmond still faces four games against fellow bottom-six sides, but the clash against West Coast is in Perth, St Kilda towelled up the Tigers by 82 points in round 3, Essendon beat Richmond by 23 points in round 11 and North Melbourne has found some form. The only good news is that the Tigers currently hold picks 2 and 3 in this year’s draft — not that it is a particularly strong pool.
18. WEST COAST
Played: 14, Won: 1, Lost: 13, Percentage: 65.1
It looks like being a long nine weeks ahead for Andrew McQualter’s Eagles, who are right on track to win a second wooden spoon in three years. Co-captain Oscar Allen has been ruled out for the remainder of the season after undergoing knee surgery, while premiership defender Jeremy McGovern was last week forced into retirement on the back of his latest concussion in round 1 this year. The Eagles’ worst season on record came in 2022, when they registered just two wins. They’ll be doing well if they can match that amid a tough run home.
Originally published as Every club’s run home, final ladder position predicted with nine rounds to go
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