Essendon’s run home: All the possibilities for the Bombers in 2024

Two months ago, finals seemed an obvious destination for the Bombers, now they’re back in the pack. So what are the best and worst-case scenarios, and what is most likely to happen?

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – JULY 13: Brad Scott, Senior Coach of the Bombers speaks to his players during the round 18 AFL match between Melbourne Demons and Essendon Bombers at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on July 13, 2024, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

The roof is on but the lid is off, at least for Essendon fans.

The Bombers’ dominance under the roof has helped launch their season to the edge of a top-four finish, with a perfect 5-0 record at the ground.

Essendon has hit 100+ points in four of 17 games this season; two times coming at Marvel Stadium.

Their percentage at the ground is 134.8 per cent. Their percentage at all other grounds is 87.0 per cent.

Are the Bombers returning to the finals? Picture: Getty Images

The Bombers’ ability to score and defend under the roof will play a big part in their surge towards September, with four of their final six games to be played at the ground.

But what is the Bombers’ best case scenario for this season? What’s the worst-case scenario? And what will actually happen?

BEST CASE SCENARIO

Winning each of the next four rounds will lock Essendon into finals. Adelaide and St Kilda should be easy scalps for a side aiming to get a double chance, plus playing Fremantle and Gold Coast in Melbourne also swings the pendulum into the Bombers’ favour. Rounds 23 and 24 will decide where inside the top eight they finish. In fact, the final game of the season against the Lions, at the Gabba, will likely decide which of the two finish inside the top four, and which finishes fifth. Even if Essendon wins all six games to finish the season, it’s hard to see the Bombers finish higher than fourth, needing the Cats or the Blues to fall away to get further up the ladder.

Best case ladder position: 4th – Qualifying Final v Sydney

It would be incredibly painful for Essendon fans if the Bombers fell out of the top eight again. Picture: Getty Images

WORST CASE SCENARIO

The Bombers can still miss the top eight, with at least two wins required in the final six weeks. Three wins would most likely get them into the top eight, with any more locking them into a final. But if Essendon lose either of the next two games against Adelaide or St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, the pressure starts to mount on Brad Scott’s men. While the Bombers can finish as low as 12th with a late-season collapse, it would be infinitely more painful to win just two games on the run home and finish ninth. A three-week period for Essendon facing St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Fremantle at the MCG and Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium will define their season, needing to win two of those three matches to hold any hope of a finals berth.

Worst case ladder position: 9th – Miss finals

Could we see Essendon play Fremantle in the first week of finals? Picture: Getty Images

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO

A four-win streak, starting with the Crows on Friday night, will get the Bombers into finals. Games against Sydney and Brisbane to finish the season will likely rule out a top-four finish, but a home final beckons. Essendon won’t know who they’re facing until the final round of the season, with Melbourne’s game against Collingwood, and Fremantle’s clash with Port Adelaide, set to define the elimination finals. If the Demons beat the Pies, the Bombers will likely face the winner of the Dockers and Power, but if Collingwood topples Melbourne, the Bombers will likely host the Demons. It’s hard to see the AFL scheduling any Essendon home final at Marvel Stadium, with the MCG likely being a sell out regardless of the opposition.

Most likely ladder position: 5th – Elimination final v Fremantle

Originally published as Essendon’s run home: All the possibilities for the Bombers in 2024