Deal or no deal: Will your club’s out of contract players stay beyond the 2024 season?

Bailey Smith will miss all of 2024 after doing his ACL before Christmas. Has he played his last game in blue, red, and white, or will he ‘fall back in love’ with the club during rehab?

MELBOURNE . 02/04/2023. AFL Round 3. Melbourne vs Sydney Swans at the MCG. Clayton Oliver of the Demons celebrates a 1st quarter goal with Harrison Petty . Pic: Michael Klein

It’s deal or no deal time again.

Who are your club’s out of contract players? Who should get a contract before the season starts and who should be made to earn it.

JON RALPH examines where all 18 clubs sit as we begin the push to Round 1.

Adelaide

Adelaide is in an excellent position cap-wise and is a side on the rise, which means they are very much in acquisition mode rather than having to worry too much about retention.

With the likes of Jake Soligo (2029), Josh Rachele (2029), Jordan Dawson (2026) and Rory Laird (2026) locked away long-term, the 2024 priorities are securing the next batch of kids.

They include emerging defender Mitch Hinge (fifth in the best and fairest), who will follow Luke Pedlar with a new deal

Pedlar’s two-year extension was perfect timing as a pick 11 who played 21 highly impressive games last year.

Ned McHenry and Lachie Scholl are also unsigned, while Ben Keays becomes a free agent.

He finished ninth in the best-and-fairest and while he’s not a conventional player as a mid-turned-pressure forward, he averaged an excellent 19 touches and kicked 22 goals in 23 games plus 3.8 tackles.

Rivals would come for him if he remained unsigned late into the year, so expect the Crows to get moving on a deal for him early in the season.

The Lions will be eager to sign up Hugh McCluggage sooner rather than later. Picture: Getty Images

Brisbane

Hugh McCluggage is a clear priority for a club transformed into a destination.

It’s amazing to think that not so many years ago the Lions were trying to stem the bleeding as players fled south.

Free agent McCluggage was third in the best-and-fairest — behind only Harris Andrews and Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale — and Victorian clubs would throw insane money at him given he’s a free agent.

So the only real issue is price point for a player happy to stay, and the rival interest means he’s probably a $1-million-a-year player in the new currency.

It’s crazy money, but McCluggage is only 25 so they will need to pay up.

Those early talks are positive.

Keidean Coleman came into the year out of contract, but has since signed a three-year extension.

Defender Brandon Starcevich was a signing priority until the Lions locked him away on a new deal until the end of 2025 in December.

Carlton

The Blues will go into 2024 with as many as 16 players out of contract.

However, for list boss Nick Austin so much of the heavy lifting has been done now that the Blues have re-signed Mitch McGovern, Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni.

No one is quibbling over his early signing of pre-agent Charlie Curnow now, even if fellow key forward Harry McKay needs a big 2024.

The interesting name is Jack Martin, whose five-year front-ended deal expires in 2024.

If he can finally put together a full season and kick 40 goals, no Blues fan will quibble over paying up for the mid-forward again.

Elijah Hollands’ three-year offer was shrunk to a one-year deal after his cocaine possession charge.

But surely Hollands pulls his head in, works hard and gets a deal of two or more years later in 2024.

Others out of contract include Corey Durdin, Alex Cincotta, Jordan Boyd and Caleb Marchbank.

The club’s decision to delist Matt Cottrell in 2021 then re-list him makes him an unrestricted free agent, so in what could be a breakout 2024 rivals will scrutinise his form as a pacy line-breaker who would have some appeal.

Scott Pendlebury is going around again in 2024. Picture: Getty Images

Collingwood

List and footy boss Graham Wright can afford to take some time off this year.

Of all Collingwood’s list decisions — and there are 15 players out of contract – barely one of them requires attention for an early re-extension.

Finlay Macrae, Pat Lipinski, Aiden Begg, Josh Carmichael and Reef McInnes will all want to prove themselves to gain leverage before new deals.

Steele Sidebottom, Jeremy Howe and Scott Pendlebury will surely be happy to play out the early rounds before considering futures, while Nathan Murphy is uncontracted.

And the likes of Charlie Dean and Joe Richards will need to establish themselves in the seniors before contract talks.

The issue for Collingwood is the ‘meet and greet’ season.

With cap space to burn and a reputation as a destination club, the greater issue is which key forward or star mid can they woo over summer before launching hard in the trade period.

You get the feeling the Lachie Schultz heist was just Collingwood warming up.

Andrew McGrath is out of contract at the end of this year. Picture: Michael Klein

Essendon

New list boss Matt Rosa certainly has his hands full with 23 players out of contract and plenty breakout candidates who might put their hands out for more money if they can put together bumper seasons.

Andy McGrath is the high-profile free agent.

He will get rewarded for loyalty, his capacity to influence this club’s culture and his selflessness as much as his handy role as a half back who can play on quality smalls.

Essendon was smart to put Jake Stringer on an incentive-based deal which expires this year.

Knowing Jake, he will have a monster year to force the Dons to pay up again.

Top-10 picks Elijah Tsatas, Nik Cox and Archie Perkins are all out of contract.

If the trio fulfil potential they will take up some of the vacant salary cap, as will Sam Durham if he continues his progression.

Dylan Shiel’s lucrative deal expires and who knows where his future lies in 2025.

Fremantle

The Dockers have signed up a heap of their youngsters on extended deals, including Brandon Walker, Hayden Young, Heath Chapman and Caleb Serong (all 2027).

The Dockers finally locked away ruckman Sean Darcy until 2030, while star defender Luke Ryan’s contract runs to 2027.

Luke Jackson and Jye Amiss are tied up to 2029, Sam Switkowski has a deal to 2026 and Andrew Brayshaw is secured until the end of 2025.

The Dockers had to throw a mega deal at Darcy and not let his contract drag on as rivals like Geelong aggressively pursued him in what would have been a huge distraction in this year.

While locking him up on a long term deal carries an element of risk, it is the way forward for a club keen to play Darcy and Jackson in the same ruck battery.

Bailey Banfield, Sam Sturt and Nathan O’Driscoll will all want to put their best foot forward to secure contracts with pay rises.

Tyson Stengle is one of 12 Geelong free agents. Picture: Michael Klein.

Geelong

The Cats have a ridiculous number of free agents given their ageing list profile with 12 in total.

But they’ve got the main one done in star defender Tom Stewart.

Stewart was never going anywhere and at 30 years old he is a million-dollar-a-year player at any club but Geelong, where so many players take pay cuts for the club’s work-life balance and to keep the list together.

The remaining free agents are Tyson Stengle, Brandan Parfitt, Cam Guthrie, Gary Rohan, Jack Henry, Jake Kolodjashnij, Jed Bews, Mark O’Connor, Mitch Duncan, Rhys Stanley, Tom Hawkins, Zach Guthrie and Zach Tuohy.

In reality none of them are really flight risks apart from Parfitt.

If he can’t find regular opportunities this year, the Cats will be happy for him to move on.

Geelong will hope to lock in Stengle early on a deal that reflects his potential upside after All Australian honours and then an injury-prone 2023.

You can’t see him being anywhere else than Geelong in 2025.

The positive summer headline would be an early long-term contract extension for Max Holmes, who has been linked to the Pies but has made clear his future is at Geelong.

Ben King is a high priority signing for Gold Coast. Picture: Getty Images

Gold Coast

The Suns and Ben King’s management had set the start of the pre-season as the kick-off point for talks on a new deal.

A two-year extension to 2026 — and restricted free agency — would make the most sense for a player who again recently stated his future was at the Suns.

In a year full of challenges where he came off a knee reconstruction, had some mid-season niggles and then had his campain shut down early, he still kicked 40 goals in 20 games.

His upside is obvious and so is his price tag — around $1 million to $1.1 million a season.

Nick Holman is an unrestricted free agent and is a Suns glue guy, so they would be clever to take him off the board early given the tackling fiend only turns 29 in May.

The ruck situation is truly fascinating.

Star first ruck Jarrod Witts comes out of contract, VFL ruck Ned Moyle has a heap of rival admirers and star teen Ethan Read arrives with a huge tank and a capacity to play ruck or centre half-back.

The Suns dream is to recontract Witts, convince Moyle he is Witts’ successor and still play Read early and often.

It would not surprise if a rival offered Moyle a longer-term deal and the chance to play regularly, but he’s only 21 so has time on his side if he chooses to stay.

GWS

Number one pick Aaron Cadman signed a routine two-year extension past his current deal which locked him in at the Giants to 2026.

The Giants expect rivals to have a good look at valuable role players Isaac Cumming and Harry Perryman given they are restricted free agents but to be brutally honest both would be replaceable if they moved on.

The Giants will be keen to sign both at responsible wages.

Nick Haynes’ monster back-ended deal expires in 2024 and at his age GWS hopes he stays for 2025 but if he can’t get a game in this stacked backline suitors scared off by his 2024 price tag will re-emerge.

The ball is in Braydon Preuss’ court given he just signed a one-year deal but will start as Kieren Briggs’ backup.

Hawthorn believe Conor Nash will stay. Picture: Getty Images

Hawthorn

Hawthorn is supremely confident that restricted free agent Conor Nash and dashing half back-wingman Changkuoth Jiath will re-sign past 2024.

But the early indication is Jiath will likely wait until getting some footy under his belt after 2023 was a write-off given injuries.

For a club with a huge war chest, that delay only means he will be paid what he is worth.

Jiath is no flight risk.

Similarly Nash’s deal is all about his value.

Put it this way — if Jade Gresham is worth $700,000 a year as a free agent, what is Nash worth as a 197cm midfielder who finished third in the best-and-fairest in 2023 averaging 24 possessions, 4.7 clearances and 4.8 tackles?

The sample size might only be 18 months, but he’s only 25 so it’s a fascinating case study for the value of free agency.

Elsewhere Josh Weddle, Josh Ward and defensive free agent Blake Hardwick will be keen to sign new deals early, but the players seem happy to stay under Sam Mitchell.

The Hawks decided against trading top-10 pick Denver Grainger-Barras for pennies on the dollar, but he’s out of contract in 2024.

Watch this space.

Melbourne

Harrison Petty wants to move home to Adelaide next year but has a deal for 2025 at Melbourne.

The Demons are keen to extend his deal, but it would take a dramatic change of heart for that to occur.

Therefore, the swingman’s contract will be one of the season’s big storylines.

So will Clayton Oliver’s deal, even though he’s locked away to 2030.

The club’s early priorities will be emerging midfielder Tom Sparrow and wingman Ed Langdon, while veterans like Ben Brown, Tom McDonald, Lachlan Hunter and Adam Tomlinson also have expiring contracts.

Joel Smith, awaiting a Sports Integrity hearing over his cocaine positive, is also a free agent.

Will Tarryn Thomas stay at North Melbourne? Picture: Getty Images

North Melbourne

Much depends upon Alastair Clarkson turning Arden Street into a happy environment where players can see the upside through development and enough 2024 wins to prove that direction.

Tarryn Thomas looked around this off-season, despite the Roos’ vast investment in his personal growth.

He decided to stay, but is out of contract and has strong links to Sydney given his family in the Harbour City.

Cam Zurhaar seems to have blue and white running through his veins, but after an injury-hit 2023 it would be prudent to hold off talks until mid-year while he bounces back to form.

If he can churn out 40 goals and four tackles a game his value will explode.

Former pick 49 Bailey Scott is out of contract — along with Tom Powell and Will Phillips — and on 2023 form Scott deserves a deal at a much higher price point than players taken much higher than him.

But they have 2024 to show their progress.

Todd Marshall will be looking for a big season to ramp up his price. Picture: Getty Images

Port Adelaide

Zak Butters signed a new two-year deal that has surely hit seven figures a season, while new captain Connor Rozee inked a monster deal which will keep him at Alberton until 2032.

He had the option of hitting free agency in 2026 with a two-year deal, but instead chose the longer-term option that would have a range of clauses which reflect the CBA rising in coming years.

That pair aren’t going anywhere now and neither is key forward Todd Marshall.

Marshall is a restricted free agent coming off an injury-hit season, but could be a star of the future.

He doesn’t yet deserve megabucks, but a 50-goal season would help him if he is happy to put off contract talks until later in the year.

Veterans Aliir Aliir and Charlie Dixon are out of contract and Aliir has the ability to recapture his best form in a contract year, given the club has brought in Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher to release him into more of an intercepting role.

Dion Prestia is a big name coming out of contract. Picture: Getty Images

Richmond

Dustin Martin has opened discussions over a new deal and it would be a relief to everyone if he locked away a new two-year deal before round 1.

Richmond believes he likes certainty in his life, so will consider an early deal which would take away a considerable distraction for the club and new coach Adem Yze.

But at what price?

Call it $750,000 a season, with a discount for loyalty but also given Richmond would accept some risk in a contract that would see him playing at 35 years of age.

Free agent Jack Graham will again have suitors, while Dion Prestia might consider his position after reports he would like to move back to Queensland.

Both Graham and Prestia have expiring deals.

Toby Nankervis is a free agent and Liam Baker is again out of contract after rejecting big offers from WA-based clubs.

With 22 players out of contract, there are plenty of decisions ahead.

St Kilda

The stars are all locked away.

Cal Wilkie, Jack Higgins, Jack Steele, Rowan Marshall, Liam Henry, Jack Sinclair (all 2027), Max King (2026) and Brad Crouch, Brad Hill, Marcus Windhager, Mitch Owens and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (all 2025).

So while there are 20-odd out of contract players, the only real high-profile priority signing is third-tall Josh Battle.

Mason Wood, Tim Membrey and Dan Butler are also off contract, with Butler the most likely to sign an early deal given Wood and Membrey’s veteran status.

A new two-year extension for Mattaes Phillipou seems a formality, while Liam Stocker only needs to follow up his 2023 season to be locked away again.

Clubs believed Dougal Howard was being shopped around, but St Kilda held firm across the trade period.

Howard’s 2024 campaign will be scrutinised as his lucrative deal expires.

Errol Gulden is set to cash in on his superb form with his next contract. Picture: Phil Hillyard

Sydney

Errol Gulden has the world at his feet.

As the club’s reigning best-and-fairest and a new AFL megastar he couldn’t have timed his form explosion better.

Coming into his fourth season, every factor at play helps him get filthy rich.

Sydney finally has spare cap space, the salary cap will go up 30 per cent from 2023 to 2025 and Gulden is already nearing peak earning capacity.

He can sign a four-year deal to free agency — $5 million is about the going rate — or ponder the kind of seven-year extension that Nick Blakey just secured with the Swans.

If he did sign a four-year deal to free agency, his deal would expire in 2028 and he would be only 26 as he brokered a new deal only 12 months after the next CBA is brokered.

Then he truly might be in the funny money category.

Call it $1.5 million a year somewhere through the life of that contract.

Other Swans out of contract include restricted free agent Ollie Florent, Robbie Fox and Will Hayward.

Key forward Logan McDonald gets his chance to shine post-Lance Franklin and the strong expectation from Sydney and suitor Fremantle is that he will postpone talks until well into 2024 to assess his future as he considers the Dockers’ interest.

James Rowbottom must be tied away after a super 2023.

Lachlan McAndrew is a ruckman of the future who is out of contract at a club with Brodie Grundy, Peter Ladhams and Hayden McLean,

The Swans also just drafted Will Green, so rivals will circle McAndrew.

West Coast

Finally some fat veteran deals are expiring, with Elliot Yeo and Andrew Gaff coming out of contract to give the Eagles some wiggle room.

Liam Duggan and Liam Ryan are also out of contract, while ruckman Bailey Williams will hope to get a significant pay rise even as Matt Flynn arrives to add some competition for his spot in the centre square.

A club who is mostly building via the draft will have options in the free agency and trade space, but the Eagles are far from a destination club in their current form.

Tim English is likely to stay at the Dogs. Picture: Getty Images

Western Bulldogs

Dogs fans breathed a huge sigh of relief when Aaron Naughton signed on with footy’s longest contract (2032) in October.

They will hope it is part of a domino effect that sees good mate (and free agent) Tim English recommit, while full-forward Jamarra Ugle-Hagan follows suit.

Ugle-Hagan will wait to maximise his contract, but he has already pledged his future to the Dogs.

English has strong interest from West Coast but he’s invested, he likes the city and his partner is about to return to Melbourne to continue her professional netball career.

Everything points to a lengthy extension for the reigning All-Australian ruckman.

If Bailey Smith was sure the Dogs would have granted him a trade request, he would very likely have asked for a move in October.

So the Dogs and Bailey have 12 months to fall back in love with each other in a season where Smith will have likely played no football due to an off-season ACL injury.

Open question – from a pure marketing perspective how much more would he be worth in Collingwood colours alongside his new BFF Nick Daicos?

Given he won’t be able to prove himself on the field for a while, it’s hard to see how this plays out.

Originally published as Deal or no deal: Will your club’s out of contract players stay beyond the 2024 season?