AFLW finals: Form, key match-ups, predictions ahead of 2024 finals series
After 11 matches in 10 weeks, AFLW finals are finally here. We break down each side’s form, the key match-ups and look at how the opening week of games could unfold.
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AFLW finals begin this weekend after 10 weeks and 11 games of matches, with new challenger Hawthorn hoping to challenge the established top three of Brisbane, North Melbourne and Adelaide.
HAWTHORN v BRISBANE LIONS
Previous Meetings
Round 5, 2023 – Brisbane 8.11 (59) def Hawthorn 5.2 (32) – Kinetic Stadium
Round 9, 2022 – Brisbane 9.7 (61) def Hawthorn 1.1 (7) – Kinetic Stadium
Recent form
The Hawks enter their first AFLW finals series on the back of an eight-game winning streak with momentum completely on their side. They rounded out the home-and-away season with a dominant 23-point win over Richmond, after halting the fast-finishing Demons a week earlier in a low-scoring affair.
It might have been a shaky start to the season after they lost their opening match to the Roos, but the Lions won nine of their next 10 games and are perfectly placed to defend their premiership. They’ve averaged 73 points the past fortnight after big wins over St Kilda and Sydney.
How each team wins
Hawthorn’s undeniable momentum could be the key to carrying them far in finals. They play an entertaining brand of football focused on attack and have two of the best finishers in Aileen Gilroy and Aine McDonagh. The key is not letting the match-up become a shootout as Brisbane is the second-best scoring team in the competition.
Over the past month, Brisbane’s forward pressure has been integral to their success. They’ve averaged 22 tackles inside 50 across the past four matches and won the count 23-7 against St Kilda last weekend. Courtney Hodder and Cathy Svarc are both in the top six in the competition for the statistic and will lead the charge.
Key matchup to watch
Jenna Richardson has emerged as one of the competition’s best defenders in 2024, leading the AFLW for marks while also being top five for intercept possessions. Her role in commanding Hawthorn’s defence will be crucial, particularly against the likes of Taylor Smith who will be looking to bring the ball to ground and lock it inside Brisbane’s forward 50.
Expert prediction
Brisbane by 10.
FREMANTLE v ESSENDON
Previous Meetings
Round 1, 2024 – Fremantle 10.4 (64) def Essendon 3.3 (21) – Windy Hill
Round 4, 2023 – Essendon 7.8 (50) def Fremantle 4.6 (30) – Windy Hill
Recent Form
The Dockers have taken care of business over the past three weeks. They’ve had wins over the Western Bulldogs, Giants and West Coast, but also lost to Carlton early in October. They’ve only won two games against top-eight rivals this year, one being against the Bombers in the opening round.
Essendon comprehensively defeated Carlton in the final round by six goals, but the two weeks prior are cause for concern. They led several times against the Tigers in Darwin and couldn’t put them away, while a 51-point to North Melbourne in week eight will be fresh on the mind.
How each team wins
Fremantle’s work around the stoppages and the dominance of Mim Strom is clearly the Dockers’ best path to victory. Strom (41), Gabrielle Newton (52) and Aisling McCarthy (45) have put together some strong clearance numbers and if they can consistently win the first ball, they’ll be hard to stop.
The two-punch combo of Maddison Gay and Georgia Clarke off Essendon’s halfback line has been one of the real highlights of the Bombers’ season. They’re strong in the air and have some of the best marking numbers in the competition. If they can command their defensive 50, they’ll be able to get the ball going forward quickly.
Key matchup to watch
With Essendon star Bonnie Toogood out for the season, Daria Bannister becomes the Bombers’ main scoring option. Unfortunately, accuracy hasn’t been on her side with just nine goals from 25 shots. Madeleine Scanlon is Fremantle’s best one-on-one defender, losing just two contests all year, and will look to keep the pressure on Bannister all afternoon.
Prediction
Fremantle by 16.
NORTH MELBOURNE v ADELAIDE
Previous Meetings
Round 9, 2024 – North Melbourne 6.5 (41) def Adelaide 4.9 (33) – Norwood Oval
Preliminary final, 2023 – North Melbourne 4.8 (32) def Adelaide 4.7 (31) – IKON Park
Recent Form
The Kangaroos continued what has been the most dominant home and away season in AFLW history with an impressive win over the Crows at Norwood Oval before another statement ahead of finals as they smashed Gold Coast at Arden St. It has shown why they are the red-hot favourites for the flag.
The Crows might have been yet another side to be on the end of a defeat at the hands of the Kangaroos but they certainly gave the minor premiers a battle and if they took their chances at Norwood Oval they very well could have ended the unbeaten run. Adelaide comes into the clash off a four-point win over Geelong in Victoria, which could be a handy one for the Crows.
How each team wins
It is pretty plain and simple for the Kangaroos, just keep doing what they have been doing in 2024. They have looked a level above the rest of the competition throughout the season and have done it in the second half of the campaign without captain Emma Kearney.
The Crows showed that they can trouble the Kangaroos the last time they played them, but what will be key is whether Adelaide can actually take its chances this time. While they dominated in the air, the Crows were somewhat wasteful in front of goal in the last meeting between the two and the Kangaroos took advantage of this.
Key matchup to watch
Both Adelaide captain Ebony Marinoff and North Melbourne star Ash Riddell have had the ball on a string this year, number one and two when it comes to disposals in 2024. So all eyes will be on the midfield battle between the two and which gun can help their side get the game on their terms at the source.
Prediction
North Melbourne by seven points
PORT ADELAIDE v RICHMOND
Previous Meetings
Round 5, 2024 – Richmond 6.12 (48) def Port Adelaide 3.9 (27)
Recent form
While coach Lauren Arnell described the Power’s last gasp win over GWS as a “nice little kick in the backside” Port come into the clash on a massive high after Gemma Houghton’s last minute goal to win the game. Prior to that the Power continued its winning run with a comfortable win over Gold Coast.
The Tigers come into the finals campaign on a three-match winless run, although one of them was a draw against fellow top eight side Essendon. Against Hawthorn last week the Tigers could not take advantage of locking the ball inside its attacking half early on with Hawthorn making them pay.
How each team wins
The one and only time the Power has played Richmond was amid Port’s condensed fixture so Arnell’s side will be a lot fresher than last time. But what they didn’t do last time was make their inside 50 superiority count. If they can do this in front of their home fans it will go a long way towards a Power triumph.
The Power’s last-gasp win over the Giants showed the role the Alberton Oval crowd can have in determining the result so the Tigers will be hoping to silence the Port faithful early on. If they can also get on top in the contest this will go a long way with this area a key part of the Power’s game plan.
Key matchup to watch
Richmond has one of the competition’s elite ball winners in Monique Conti, but the Power’s midfield doesn’t possess a dominant midfielder in the same way. There have been just six instances this season where a Port Adelaide player has eclipsed 20 touches. In the round 5 clash between the two sides, Conti had 23 disposals and was one of Richmond’s best. The Power will need to find a way to nullify her impact at stoppages.
Prediction
Port Adelaide by 11 points
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Originally published as AFLW finals: Form, key match-ups, predictions ahead of 2024 finals series
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