AFL win-loss statistics reveal each club’s most valuable player

Who says matches can’t be won and lost at the selection table? We reveal the player at every club whose selection has the biggest impact on results and why Carlton’s Lachie Fogarty is the AFL’s true MVP.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – JUNE 09: Lachie Fogarty of the Blues celebrates a goal during the 2024 AFL Round 13 match between the Essendon Bombers and the Carlton Blues at The Melbourne Cricket Ground on June 09, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Let’s call him Carlton’s Lachie charm.

Since Lachie Fogarty returned to the Blues’ senior team in round 14 last year, Carlton has won 17 of the 19 games the tenacious small forward has featured in.

The Blues were 15th on the ladder with pressure mounting on coach Michael Voss when Fogarty was recalled for his first game of 2023 in round 14.

Carlton won its next eight matches, storming into finals as former Cat Fogarty emerged as a key pressure player in one of the league’s most formidable forward lines.

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Incredibly, the Blues have not lost when Fogarty has played this year.

Their four defeats came in a stretch from round 5-10 when Fogarty was sidelined with a fractured wrist.

“I guess it is nice, but I don’t think one player can make that much of a difference,” Fogarty said recently.

“It’s just a coincidence. I’ll take it … it’s a nice little record to have.”

Lachie Fogarty has played all four quarters in a Carlton loss once since the start of 2023. 👑

— Untitled Blues Pod (@CarltonPod) May 27, 2024

Reflecting on Fogarty’s remarkable win-loss record, coach Michael Voss said recently: “Extraordinary record isn’t it? It’s a great record. I think it just (shows) the importance of the role he’s played over a period of time.

“He’s tough, clean, hard and accepts his role. We’ve talked about a lot of things we’ve built the foundations of this team off and we tend to get seduced by some of the bigger names in our team and if you want to call it, some of our matchwinners that have proven over time that they can do that and step up.

“But our real shift as a team has still come through our role players.”

Carlton is rarely beaten with Lachie Fogarty in the team. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Fogarty is Carlton’s No. 1 ranked forward for tackles (3.4 per game), No. 2 for forward half pressure points (24.4) and sits third for score involvements (4.9) behind Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Elijah Hollands.

Since the start of 2023, no player who has featured in at least 15 games has a better winning rate than Fogarty (89 per cent).

Carlton’s round 24 loss to GWS Giants last season and preliminary final defeat against Brisbane Lions are the only defeats Fogarty has played in during the past two seasons.

Sydney’s Matt Roberts (14 wins from 17 matches, 82 per cent) ranks second, while Will Hoskin-Elliott (26 wins from 32 games, 79 per cent) has become Collingwood’s barometer.

Port Adelaide defender Dylan Williams (75 per cent win rate) and injured Brisbane rising star Will Ashcroft (72 per cent) are the other players who have featured in more than 15 games since the start of 2023 with success rates above 70 per cent.

The statistics also highlight the importance of injury-plagued on-baller Dion Prestia to Richmond’s midfield and Jacob van Rooyen’s value as the linchpin of Melbourne’s attack.

Originally published as AFL win-loss statistics reveal each club’s most valuable player